Forgive my naivety on the subject. Not too bright re this sort of thing but I look for patterns and try to find out why things perhaps go against what people would be expecting in a particular climate. I read on the forum that silver prices are based on the paper silver price. So the charts above us are looking at paper silver price as this is what is commonly bought and sold as physical is harder to transport and store etc. So in effect, us physical stackers are bundled into those same charts. The paper silver from what I understand works much the same as any other paper based "currency" in that even though there is only so much physical silver, there may be many more times that amount in paper silver. Am I correct in that comment? So everytime I look at a chart I am only looking at a supply and demand that is dependant on how many pieces of paper are flying about at any one time. Now this is where I had the following thought. I am hearing that getting physical silver is difficult at the moment. If I go to goldstackers it appears that physical silver is on backorder or not available for some time from Perth Mint. There was a comment that the Perth Mint was finding it difficult to source silver to fill orders, but wouldn't that drive up pricing for silver (I know we are a global economy but bear with me). However for several months now pricing of silver seems to be declining. Instead of the Perth Mint finding it difficult to source silver, perhaps they have some extraordinarily large physical orders that need to be filled? Could it be that more and more people are moving away from paper silver and not investing in USD or other currencies (most of which are pretty crappy at the same time) but instead investing in physical silver? This would account for the paper price dropping but there being a backorder problem at the Perth Mint. Perhaps this is happening all over the world. People are recognising that paper silver will, like any ponzi scheme, fail and the smart people are getting out of paper and into physical. The good thing with us is that we are already have our physical! My crackpot comment for the day. Maybe someone more enlightened can shoot me down.
Philki apparently each paper certificate for an ounce of silver is backed by a physical ounce of silver? So technically you are wrong in your calculation, however in reality you are probably right on the button as it's becoming more and more evident that the silver market manipulation has been causing more and more people from .SLV and into 'PHYSICAL"
"each paper certificate for an ounce of silver is backed by a physical ounce of silver" Well, perhaps you're right, but... how many people owns the same (supposably unique) certificate ??? Probable answer: As many as an unregulated Fractional Reserve System would permits until it collapses from the sheer weight of its own mendacity !
Ok I know that's what they want you to believe but seriously doubt this is the case - you'll here the argument for 'liquidity' in the PM market so they can trade paper metal 100's of time's the physical. You can visit the Comex website to see the current longs/shorts/physical in the warehouse - doesn't add up - never has and never will IMHO YES! There's plenty of supporting evidence for this but again, the market CLAIMS it wants 'liquidity' in the PM market Your comments on lack of supply currently is exactly right. There are numerous buyers having difficulty in getting large quantities of PM so have been buying future contracts and standing for delivery. This has sucked the stock piles very quickly. Add to this the HKMEX (new Hong Kong exchange) offering physical delivery easier than the NYMEX and the vacuum starts. So what happens when the physical can't meet the delivery demands? Decouple Paper price one chart and Physical price another. Don't believe me? Look at the difference already - I would guess the average standard physical price for silver is around 25% over the paper spot price. Price of metals going down? Yes Why? because the big boys don't want anymore investors rushing into metals - suppress the price, suppress the demand. If the price starts going up quickly, you'll have hoards of speculators also joining the spree. There would be speculators currently burnt on the precious metal story fleeing the fight but being replaced by smaller numbers buying up big.
you guys love your selective quoting dont you, GP can we get a sarcasm emoticom pronto please, it appears some stackers are a little slow on the uptake
Still got silver in stock - especially 10oz bars, Dragons and Kookaburras - the mint just isn't making anything in smaller sizes at the moment, such as Koalas that won't be available until January. If you're referring about the post I made the other day about silver availability over the Christmas / New Years period, that's simply a result of the mint not shipping silver by road over that period, and if stock on those sizes runs out, there won't be anything available until January, and I expect this to be the case for several dealers - yesterday was particularly busy with the drop in spot.
Guys thanks for the comments .. I suppose at the end of it I am trying to say that paper price does not equal physical price as demand is not a true demand when it is simply paper and people can make more of the same. As such the spot price may be well over (or even under) for physical silver. GP, my comments were not about any other post, or your lack of stock etc, more that it seems that there is more of a time lag for supply of some silver. It's just that I go to your site the most that you were picked as an example. Maybe it is justthe xmas period .. wasn't around here to see it last year! I am just trying to justify why there would be a price drop. It is said that people flock to PMs when the USD looks bad or other things are going crazy but the last few months have seen some particularly unusual fluctuations that didn't seem to me to make sense and I was simply looking to see whether my comment had any validity in the scheme of it all. Not picking on anyone .. not sledging anyone's comments .. just making my own .. like I said happy to be shot down .. a learning experience for me more than anything!
all it takes is for 1/100 person to wake up and demand physical, just like last time Warren Buffett took 129 m ozs. then we need everyone to wake up and pick up one oz to put a stop to the paper market. the time is near to pick up some silver again before the 2/100 person realised that there is none left for him.
Certainly London unallocated accounts work this way, ie are fractional with only a small percentage backed by physical and the rest by paper claims on others and also the possiblity that no backing (ie the bank is naked short). Perth Mint doesn't operate this way. Nope, we have no problem sourcing silver to feed our Mint. We don't have any single large orders, just lots of orders so we are close to manufacturing capacity. We can only hope so, but I think this isn't going to happen overnight. For example, you still have people trading COMEX futures even after MF Global proves the CME will not make good any loss by a broker, which is what it has said in the past it would.
Regarding SLV shorts & difficulty getting physical silver in bulk, these two links make for an interesting read http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._-_There_are_Tremendous_Silver_Shortages.html http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/slv-short-position-update ** And if Bron Suchecki sees this video, we'd love you hear your comment ** http://www.theaureport.com/pub/video/816 Start at the 4.00 minute mark to hear the critical comment. Jeffrey says there is no shortage of physical silver, and that his company (CME) can get as much silver as people would like, etc. Specifically, Jeffrey says, "... the Perth Mint actually is growing with silver bars that they would love for someone to come in and buy and move out of there..." Did not expect to hear this... Please no negative comments about Jeffrey, as some of the things he's said have been twisted by nearly all the bloggers; eg. On Bron's "Gold Chat", I did ask for clarification about the so-called 100:1 silver leverage, and Bron cleared up the wide-spread misconceptions about this. The free CME publication on "Bullion Banking" explains this point. http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6089228851855763774&postID=6986445318300564079
The Jeffery reference to us was poorly worded and implies we have/own some stockpile of metal that is causing us a problem that we'd like to reduce. I think he must have picked up on us closing unallocated and interpreted it as having too much metals or something. What we hold is backing for existing unallocated clients and there is plently of 1000oz bars in the vaults behind that as well as other stuff. But we can't sell it and reduce that "stock" as then we aren't 1:1 backed. We operate on the basis of flow. We will sell only if we can source replacement metal. If we were unable to do that we would stop selling, no matter how much metal we had sitting in the vaults. At this time we don't have any problem acquiring replacement metal, which means there is no problem with the flow of silver in the professional market. This does not mean we are sitting on some massive stockpile we want to get rid of.
Do people really think that the price of physical wont eventually match spot :lol: . The way i see it, and i'm a johny come latly, is that there is a lot of people that have bought well above what spot is now, and as such don't wont to take a hit, so they are trying to keep the price for physical high, this wont work forever, sooner or later it will have to come back. Low or high prices don't affect you untill you sell, just like the houseing market falling so will the physical price, when the dealers decide they need to sell some stock but can't because of their higher than spot prices they will have to lower them, then the private seller can't sell at the higher price, just look at what is happening in the selling forums here, even for the short time i have been a member here, there has been a shift in how long it takes to sell bullion, last couple of months ANY bars have been sold quick smart, but now there is discounting and even then some are still struggling to sell. Gold was always going up, last couple of weeks it's had 100s knocked off the spot price, people will not pay above spot for gold, and it will be the same for silver . As of this post the spot for silver is $28.86 aud, do you lot really think that others are going to pay $32-35 oz for the same metal, it just is not happening.
True, but anytime your investment is not increasing in value is lost opportunity had the funds been deployed elsewhere.
This is the part i don't get and i have been told before too. Why can't a person be happy with what they have, there is no reason to NEED to invest, exept for retirement.
