Well, I suppose that is a current theme in the argument. The people who analyse charts will say the recent drop was going to happen because the technical data indicated silver was due to return to a lower trend line. However, there is also the argument that the Jackson Hole meeting and a lack of any action besides the Twist was what caused commodities in general to plummet and the dollar to surge higher. I only have one thing to say about this - "Black Swan Event".
Silver Market Update originally published October 17th, 2011 Silver's 3-wave A-B-C correction is believed to be complete, with the savage A and C waves serving to both flush out and wipe out Large and Small Specs and transfer their assets to Big Money interests. Like gold its suspected bear Pennant of a week ago now looks more like a completing base pattern, and also like gold it has risen to arrive at an important resistance level which is centered on $33. On its year-to-date chart we can see how this pattern is evolving and how the weak volume on the creeping advance of the past week suggests that it is not yet ready to overcome this resistance and may back and fill further, with a good chance of it dropping back towards support in the $29 - $30 area. Last week we had thought it would drop back further but now this is considered less likely. However, any such short-term retreat will be viewed as an opportunity to add to positions, as overall the outlook is now very positive, both fundamentally and technically. more... http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67&PHPSESSID=7fe12674dbde218f94413a7b5391f896
Silver Market Update originally published December 18th, 2011 http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67
Ouch. That's going to hurt. "High Teens" and "Curtains" for the silver bullmarket is something I don't think Maund has used before.
He does huh.. Hard not to in this market though; I've flip-flopped in my own head numerous times researching Silver and where it's going, and that was just over the weekend :| Slightly OT, but with this article in mind as part of my information (among others, Turd Ferguson & Franklin Sanders being two of my faves): I have come to two options which I am happy with, as neither involves buying or selling now. Basically wait, save $$ and; 1) If Silver dives further: Average in from mid 20s to high teens with the $$ I'll save by not buying over the next month/quarter until stack is at least doubled and DCA is in the 20s. 2) If Silver rallies: Sell from mid 30s into the 40s and wait for the inevitably violent correction to re-buy. See option 1). Clive's cool. I appreciate the fluidity of his forecasts. It cements in my mind the uncertainty that this market and these times holds for us over the next little while, and how important it is to be prepared for a number of eventualities.
It's one thing to say price is going into the high teens, single digits, whatever... But saying the silver bull market is over? Is he prone to knee-jerk hysteria?
Is it just me or is this thread very light on 'predictions' and very heavy on 'what i want silver to do's' (masquerading as predictions)? If only we could harness the collective will of silverstackers, by golly we might just be able to move the markets by telepathy...
A chart is a perfect record of history but absolutely no guarantee of any future trend. If you want to speculate then believe what you will, heads or tails, best of 3 ?. Take your pick.
Funny you say that, but thats just about a reality of whats happening, except instead of telepathy its paper (telegram).
Clive Maund could be 100% correct. On the other hand he could be 100% incorrect. The thing is anyone can call silver the way he does and have the same hit/miss accuracy. I got into silver in sept 2010. In that time i have leart not to believe the crap that many of these so called experts come out with. These days i have a Quick glance the king world news headlines for a chuckle .Yes silver will go up, and go up nicely but be prepared to wait many years for it to get there.
Clive's latest update (Jan 8th 2012) includes a bit of everything from armageddon to maybe bullish but overall decidely bearish. Silver: http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67 Gold: http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
Left to its own devices, the markets want to trend DOWN because we are in the midst of a deflationary cycle. What will save the PMs are two possible events: 1) Quantative easing policies by central banks with some EU banks predicting QE3 in March (QE is being conducted now by stealth anyway in both the US and EU) 2) Loss of faith in the US bond market (note that a Euro crisis will not be enough). What will trigger a loss of faith in US bonds as the last paper safe haven? Most likely another credit downgrade (not likely) or the free market naturally driving interest rates up (in which case the Fed will need to counter with option 1) Look, it's a tough time for the PMs and I'm not entirely sure an upcoming deflationary wave is not going to wipe the monetary value of our stacks out. However, I'd like to think we are in the bear trap phase: because if anything was a bear trap, this would be it, right? Who knows, maybe the bear trap is just warming up and things will get worse before they get better. All I know is that I'd prefer to be holding gold now than most other assets. But...that doesn't mean PMs have to be an all in bet. I think they key is to have some assets outside of the PMs. The Aussie dollar looks like it may be a bedrock of the currencies this year, depending on how China goes. Some money in an Aussie term deposit is not an outrageous idea.
I tend to agree Earthjade. Although I'm not sure about the AUD. We have everything riding on China and Japan and wouldn't put a bet on either, but if you live in Australia the worst that can happen to your savings in a 50c AUD means no more overseas holidays for a bit and no more cheap televisions. On the bright side houses will be cheap Much has been made of the lack of trust in financial markets and the impossibility of investing in such a climate. I'm all for wealth preservation strategies at the moment and with Australian inflation hard assets seem best in the long run, and that means gold for liquidity.
I think (or should I say hope) it's probably around the bear trap stage Earthjade, although it scares the crap out of me to think that maybe things have moved faster than many think and we're at the bull trap stage. We shall see Given my current level of investment I sure hope it's the bear trap stage!
I get what you mean, because when gold hit $1900, that was the inflation adjusted high for gold's last peak in January 1980 (averaged across the entire month). However, history never repeats exactly the same way. We still have a range of quantative easing measures to go as the Fed desperately tries to stave off a deflationary downtrend. That downtrend is not going away. Also, the public mania phase has not occurred. It's not over yet because when gold took its final dive in the early 80s, it was because the US Fed jacked the interest rates. The so called "Volker Shock" that sent the returns on bonds as high as 20%. This move killed the gold bull market. The US was the biggest creditor nation in those days. Now they are the biggest debtor and the Fed no longer has the option of boosting interest rates without destroying the value of the dollar. What can they do to kill the gold bull market this time? I sincerely doubt we're in the bull trap because of this main reason. All they've got left in their arsenal are two options: 1) Default on debt (bigtime delation) 2) Print to pay the debt (gradual inflation but i doubt hyperinflation without a major war) In both cases, you'll want that insurance policy of gold. Silver, I am not so sure about if we head into deflation.
I don't know but I'm tempted to say this makes a pretty dubious claim as a head and shoulders pattern. it would have to be about as irregular as that pattern gets. And of course, as he admits, it could 'abort'. A head and shoulders topping pattern isn't confirmed until the 'neckline' is convincingly broken. That's if you accept the pattern he puts before you has the makings of a H&S pattern to begin with. I'll reproduce his chart, then put the unannotated chart of US$Silver below it. He says, "the head and shoulders top in silver is now as obvious as the nose on your face ...". I peer at the chart of silver obsessively on a daily basis. I am well acquainted with the head and shoulders pattern notion, and a head and shoulders top never occurred to me before he sketched it into the chart. I think he's expecting a general "full blown deflationary downwave", and goes looking for confirmation in the silver chart. I'm not dismissing the possibility of deflation before more money printing though. I don't have a clue about that, and its my biggest bugbear as a buyer of PMs. We're ok until $26 breaks, and that's been the consensus by many chart watchers anyway - before the introduction of a H&S pattern notion.
