UNCONFIRMED: Two of the world's largest financial institutions are on

projack · Nov 25, 2011

VRS said:

projack said:

We should have 1 oz silver to enter each bet
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Too many of us would pick the same names I think lol!

Hang on a minute - the only ones that could possibly equal MFG as third from UK would have to be RBS or Barclays?!?!?!
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What about an official bank collapse sweep?
We haven't done a Melbourne cup sweep this year anyway

Tacrezod · Nov 25, 2011

My money's on Santander.

Rellies just tried to close an account with them in the UK and had a real battle to get their cash.

Gold Kiwi · Nov 25, 2011

jpanggy said:

bnp paribas and rabobank
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I have one third of my fiat with Rabobank (RaboDirect).

This comment from John Baird, Acting GM for RaboDirect New Zealand, is encouraging: "At EUR 448 million (0.067% of total assets), Rabobank Group has very limited net exposure to European government bonds issued by what are known as the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) countries. Our current exposure on Greece amounts to EUR 111 million(0.017% of total assets)."

Trichter · Nov 25, 2011

greenlantern said:

jpanggy said:

bnp paribas and rabobank
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I have one third of my fiat with Rabobank (RaboDirect).

This comment from John Baird, Acting GM for RaboDirect New Zealand, is encouraging: "At EUR 448 million (0.067% of total assets), Rabobank Group has very limited net exposure to European government bonds issued by what are known as the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) countries. Our current exposure on Greece amounts to EUR 111 million(0.017% of total assets)."
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Same thing that the Aussie banks say. if interbank lending freezes their limited exposure will not help them.

jpanggy · Nov 25, 2011

it's just a stab in the dark, i personally don't know and don't care which bank will collapse

hbBear · Nov 25, 2011

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-sigma-x-hints-who-next-contagion-target

Perhaps this gives us a few hints

SilverMark · Nov 25, 2011

yeh i thought of that article immediately when i read the post. Sigma X has been a good indicator of late.

My thoughts are now that it does not really matter too much which is first. It is a house of cards. Once they start falling its all over.

dickmojo · Nov 25, 2011

Yep, its clearly the Spannish Bank~ Santander. The Spannish and Italian Banks will be the first to go, followed by the French Banks, then the UK and German Banks, then the Chinese and Australian Banks, then last but not least the US Banks

possum · Nov 25, 2011

This is all very scary stuff. Is our government still guaranteeing our money in the bank is safe?

Possum

mmm....shiney! · Nov 25, 2011

possum said:

This is all very scary stuff. Is our government still guaranteeing our money in the bank is safe?

Possum
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It's why we stack

Javacoffee · Nov 25, 2011

It seemed like the the cracks are showing. Hot off the press

Some of Europe's largest banks, including BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, have in recent weeks pledged to sell assets ...

http://www.ifre.com/european-banks-asset-sales-face-disastrous-failure/1617239.article

dccpa · Nov 25, 2011

possum said:

This is all very scary stuff. Is our government still guaranteeing our money in the bank is safe?

Possum
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I don't know specifically about AU government guarantees. But governments should have no problem guaranteeing money in banks, because they can just print more to replace any missing funds. Without government guarantees, they risk bank runs and they fear that more than printing more money.

JulieW · Nov 25, 2011

This fellow has good calls on the markets I've found. Always timely and usually accurate.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28957.html

The following table lists Britain's major retail banking groups (separate licences) in terms of the percentage probability that your deposits above the UK compensation limit of 85k and Euro-zone banks 100,000 (current /E 86k) would be secure in the event of a series of euro-zone debt defaults starting with Greece and that the crisis is contained to these smaller peripheral euro-zone countries i.e. Greece, Portugal and Ireland, if Spain comes under real risk of default then that would require a revaluation of this list as banks such as Santander would come under far greater pressure given exposure to Spanish government debt.

Banking Groups (separate Licences)
Probability Deposits over 85k are Safe
National Savings & Investments
99%
Tesco Bank
80%
HSBC
75%
Co-op
75%
Standard Chartered
65%
Santander Group
50%
Barclays
35%
ING Direct
25%
Nationwide BS
20%
CitiGroup
20%
Lloyds TSB
10%
HBOS
10%
Nat West
5%
RBS
5%
Allied Irish
1%

The government backed National Savings tops the list at virtually 100% depositor safety ranking, as if NS&I goes bust so will have the the whole British financial system. Readers may be surprised to find out that Britain's safest commercial retail bank is owned and operated by the supermarket Tesco, next to follow are HSBC and Co-op, with Spain's Santander offering a 50/50 bet on the safety of deposits over 85k. The rest offer an increasing probability of loss of deposits that would take place amidst a sovereign debt crisis induced banking crisis. The government owned Northern Rock is probably 99% safe at this point in time but it is being primed to be sold off as are the share holdings of other high risk major retail banks such as RBS and the Lloyds group.

There are other smaller safe banks such a Yorkshire Bank which is owned by the National Australia Bank Group.

Depositors Protect Yourselves From Potential Banking Crisis

UK bank depositors need to prepare for what will probably follow the Greece debt default contagion snowballing across Europe's financial system, especially as you are receiving a pittance in interest on even the best deposit accounts of less than 2.5% after tax which does not match the risks of loss of funds in excess of 85k. UK bank account holders have been receiving mail shots from their banks over the past 6 months informing them of the protection of their deposits upto a value of 85,000 per individual customers across the banking group. This should not be treated as junk mail but rather banks laying the ground work for the real risk of defaulting on deposits over compensation limits as a consequence of the bankruptcy of peripheral Euro-zone countries starting with Greece. Remember Greece going bankrupt is not a question of IF but rather when.

Therefore savers with amounts deposited above the guaranteed limit need to ensure that they have measures in place well ahead of a banking crisis to ensure that they survive one both in terms of the ability to transact business as well as ensuring total funds exposed are LESS than the 85k banking limits at the time of a bank run.

Scare Mongering ?

Am I scare mongering? Try asking those that were locked out of their savings accounts when the Icelandic banks went bust during October 2008. The banks froze UK customers out of their accounts on the 7th of October 2008. My analysis of 2nd October 2008 had warned that small countries such as Iceland were at risk of going bankrupt, with Iceland's bankruptcy preceded by some 24 hours earlier by Iceland Going Bankrupt?, - "savers should at the first opportunity seek to repatriate their savings to a 100% UK bank as the consequences of a country going bankrupt could render guarantees meaningless".

Steps You Need to Take Now !

The situation is literally critical with a possible default imminent and bank runs probable even if Greece is bailed out again as a consequence of future inevitable default due to the ramping up of Debt burden (Debt/GDP).

1. Ensure that you have at least 2 current accounts across banking groups and at least one with a safe bank such as HSBC.

2. Next make a list of all of your deposit / bank accounts, with the amounts on deposit.

3. Now group your accounts by banking sector group (see list at end of this article as a guide).

4. If you are anywhere near the 85k limit with any banking group then move those excess funds immediately!

5. Consider transferring funds to your spouse so as utilise their compensation limit across a banking group.

6. Ensure you have procedures in place so that you can at short notice transfer funds from high risk banks to lower risk banks so as to limit the fallout from any banking system crisis. For instance open an NS&I Direct Saver account NOW (pays 1.75% gross), then use this during an unfolding sovereign debt crisis event to transfer your cash to as this is the safest deposit account available for UK depositors (Max 2mill, Min 1). Again do this now as you may not be able to do so during a debt crisis event due to high demand for the account.

(snipped here)

7. Do not have ANY savings at fixed deposit exposure to banks that do not fall under the UK Financials Services Compensation Scheme.

8. Limit exposure to PIIGS banks, that is Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy as these are at the most risk of going bust thus triggering a lengthy process for savers having to wait for compensation. Remember that if Spain comes under pressure following perhaps Ireland and Portugal joining Greece, then the risks posed to Santander depositors will also significantly rise.

9. Keep enough in cash to cover at least 1 months expenditure, (I keep 2 months worth of cash).
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p.s Article from Jun 29, 2011

Javacoffee · Nov 25, 2011

The contagion effect: how much will Australian banks be buffeted by Europe?
Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly this week warned about Australian banks are vulnerable to "the contagion effect" of Europe's ongoing financial woes, after the Commonwealth Bank of Australia delayed a Euro-denominated fund raising issue.
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-c...l-australian-banks-be-buffeted-by-europe-4441

TheEnd · Nov 26, 2011

Sooooo many in this country don't even know whats going on, it'scary! Maybe if everyone really knew we would'nt be in this mess???

Nukz · Nov 26, 2011

I would put it on BOFA, Socialite Generale & Commerzbank simply based on share values those 3 have taken significantly bigger hits than most others.

jpanggy · Nov 26, 2011

TheEnd said:

Sooooo many in this country don't even know whats going on, it'scary! Maybe if everyone really knew we would'nt be in this mess???
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If everyone knows now, it will just be hysteria.

Trichter · Nov 26, 2011

Nukz said:

I would put it on BOFA, Socialite Generale & Commerzbank simply based on share values those 3 have taken significantly bigger hits than most others.
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A ploutry -78% dip since the beginning of the year for Commerzbank or -96% since mid 2007. It's simply a challenging market; the business is sound.

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