MS What? -- Determining the value of Graded vs. OMP

So, I know we've successfully -- and thoroughly -- determined that Pandas are most desired either in OMP or NCS/NGC-graded, followed by PCGS-graded. We've also concluded that MS70 is primarily for serious collectors while MS69 is primarily for investors.

So I want to take another approach to the topic (apologies if these have already been brought up).


1. What do you think the average OMP Panda grades at?

In most cases, I think it is safe to say that most people cherry-pick their perceived "winners" to send in for grading/conservation, hoping to get a 69 or 70. While the coins that may come back 67 or 68 are simply left in the OMP unless there are fears of PVC damage developing. So let's say, hypothetically, that the average OMP coin grades at MS67. Would you therefore consider the Pricepedia's OMP value equal to a NGC MS67? More? Less?


2. For investments, what is the lowest grade you would be willing to buy, and similar to the scenario above, how would you determine the price?

I suppose the Panda market may be too young still, but it would be nice if a clearer ratio for determining the value would reveal itself.

For example:

Loose in capsule = 95% OMP
MS67 = OMP
MS68 = OMP x 1.25
MS69 = OMP x 2
MS70 = OMP x 4


For reference, grade descriptions per PCGS. NGC and PCGS use a 70-point Sheldon scale.

MS/PR-67 Virtually as struck with minor imperfections, very well struck.
MS/PR-68 Virtually as struck with slight imperfections, slightest weakness of strike allowed. Eye appeal must be very good.
MS/PR-69 Virtually as struck with minuscule imperfections, near full strike necessary.
MS/PR-70 As struck, with full strike.


Thoughts?

 

Hmmmm...

 

I'm only fairly new to this but from what I can tell there is a massive difference between PCGS & NGC

NGC MS69 = OMP X 2
PCGS MS 69 = OMP X 1.25 maybe
(as I said I'm new to this so would like to hear other more intelligent people's opinion but that's how I've seen the panda market)

 

Not always the case for pricing, for example an "OMP" 2009 1oz Silver Panda will be around $90-100 whereas I recently got a NGC MS69 for around $120.

NGC is preferred to PCGS especially for silver pandas due to NCS so there's a price disparity there for sure, how much it depends on the buyer and the seller.

There isn't really a simple formula but "OMP" prices are usually assumed to be around MS67-68 price. 69 and 70 are more expensive, sometimes the 70 is 3-4x the price of the 69.

 

PCGS vs. NGC is almost a completely separate debate. Prices seem heavily dependent on the market the coin is being sold in: US vs Int'l. As of late I've seen PCGS outperform NGC on the same coin and grade on US eBay, but I don't want to venture down that road right now

But reverting back to generality, assuming OMP = MS67-68 is helpful in trying to establish fair value. Obviously getting into 69-70 prices will fluctuate more, especially on rare items, but still, some type of gauge would be great. Especially if one had the same coin in OMP, 67, 68, 69 and was trying to price them for resale (non-auction).

 

heyimderrick good post and data.
Im a beginner (im collecting pandas only for a few months)
And i only Begin with ngc 69/70 for comeaux data and explanations.
I think i only buy ngc 69 or 70 (begining with 3)
But only if the Price is near 1.5 omp or less
If not i buy omp or capsules (dont buy usa capsules only ngc or omp because is possible to resell the coin because the grade is poor)
Im stacking a lot o silver coins to grade in ngc when i travel to usa.
Comeaux you know the ETA time when you send a coin and you recibe it? Ncs/ngc combined?

 

I'm pretty much in agreement with the other members ... graded prices relative to OMP really depends on exactly what coin is being referenced as it can vary greatly between coins. The rarity of the coin will have a lot of influence of price verses grade ...

If I were to take 1 oz silver pandas from 2003 to 2009 I would basically say the average would be something like this ...

Loose in capsule = OMP less 20%
MS67 = OMP less 10% to 20%
MS68 = OMP
MS69 = OMP x 1.25 to 1.5
MS70 = OMP x 2 to 3

Of course this is just an average as on occasional ebay deals there may be anomalous/inconsistent prices but I can tell you that I would pay no more than these prices.

Average grades? ... Again that depends on the coin and year minted

I'll use the 2009 1 oz silver BU Chinese Panda (mintage 600,000) for example:

NGC total graded = 2,998
NGC total MS 70 = 654 (22%)
NGC total MS 69 = 1,994 (66%)
NGC Percentage of 69/70 (88%)

PCGS total graded = 1,167
PCGS total MS 70 = 222 (19%)
PCGS total MS 69 = 860 (74%)
PCGS Percentage of 69/70 = 1,082 (93%)

I ran this comparison above on a variety of Chinese Panda coins and had basically the same percentages of average grades.

NGC graded over 2.5 times as many coins of just this one variety so clearly more experience seeing Chinese coins.

There are other Chinese Modern Coins that PCGS has never even graded

 

NGC turnaround time is estimated at about 12 business days right now, plus shipping to and from.

NCS turnaround time is not estimated; they process orders as they are received. Right now based on forum posts on the Collector's Society site, it seems that the average turnaround time is about 1 month.

 

So it seems the consensus so far is that OMP and MS68 are about equal in fair value.

Now the question is, are buyers going to go after MS68s or treat them the same as OMPs?


For me, so far, I've only purchased one MS68 so far, and that was because it was about the same cost for me to get a capsule-only version and send it in for grading myself. In that situation, I felt more comfortable knowing what I was getting from the start.


Cx, I like the stats you pulled. But don't you think using the census numbers for estimating what the avg. condition of a BU coin can be misleading? The coins sent in for grading are going to be the ones people think will grade high to begin with. Although it does clearly show how tough the 70s are to get.

 

I think i need to ship before i travel or going to a coin show with ngc presence and grading on site

 

Probably a good idea. Although if the show is your plan, make sure that they will grade world coins on-site. Most of the shows I have been to they will only grade US coins on-site.

 

Thanks derrick ...

No not misleading at all I was answering a question in your initial post before you edited it about what percentage of OMP would come back 68, 69 70, etc I had began answering your post much earlier but got side tracked and when I posted it, parts of your original post were gone.

Besides everyone will do things different but I submit EVERYTHING in OMP to get graded. I do not select or "cherry pick" and do not know many who do. If I submit say ten 2003 pandas, I do put the best coins that I think are a higher grade in numerical order on the submission form so that I can test my skills at grading.

I'm not saying I grade every coin that is OMP because special panda sets that are in boxes with COA's or commemoratives I will not grade. All other coins in OMP will get submitted.

It's cheap for the service I think.

 

wht is OMP? original manufacture price?

 

Original Mint Packaging.

 

You folks down under seem very generous.

I remember reading somewhere quite a few years ago,
that certain years, the OMP coins were gauged as MS64-MS66.

Not sure which years, but the capsules were a hair big,
and caused the bears to receive bumps, and wear marks.

Maybe Peter can chime in when he comes by.
I'm sure he could enlighten us on this OMP grades thingy.

Whaddayasay Peter?




~wyldkatt~

 

Read this post on CCF, the auction results from the recent ChengXuan 2011 Auction...

So no, we aren't really generous, the Chinese are too

Perhaps AEL should keep his coin in raw condition

 

Yep agreed fish, perhaps it's wise to keep some highly sought after coins ungraded. Let the market decide their worth, regardless of grade... which, to be fair, is subjective

 

Silver coin post

If you take a coin for 30/40 above raw valu and is a ms69 ngc is a bargain