Does anyone else think they're in a bit of a bubble at the moment from all the Dragon hype? Or in your view, are the current prices as low as we'll see now?
Depends upon what silver does. If silver is still at this price in 6 months, I believe the premiums will drop on dragons and other coins. If silver rises, I think the premiums stay up, but don't increase until silver is much higher.
Yeah, I am currently trying to buy a few mice/rabbits (as you know!) - still think they're the best pick of the bunch.
2008-2019 1oz lunars will all have mintage limit of 300,000. 2008-2012 1oz lunars have already hit 300,000 mintage. 2008 mouse, and then 2011 rabbit are the lowest premium of all 5 released 1oz lunars. Mouse was re-minted and sold locally Ox was re-minted and sold overseas Hence plenty of mice locally, not many Ox here. But at the end of the day, 300,000 is 300,000.
I personally don't see much of a bubble with any of the coins and the biggest bubble that came were the BU 1 oz dragons. They went from $100 to about $70 but expect that number to pick up again as we roll around 2012 (this is with the assumption if silver price stays the same) Don't forget the dragon bubble was also caused by the massive drop in silver that literally happened overnight. Being that they were fresh "off the presses" coins, new BU coins are truly most affected with spot price in silver (like the Pandas, 2009 and before are not affected with spot price going down, where as the 2010 are a bit and moreso with the 2011) I don't see much of a bubble with other coins. The Oxes are still in demand and the Tigers were always solid coins even prior to the Dragon mania. The Perth Mint can reissue any of the coins up to their 300k limit but it seems they are having problems just even making 1/2 oz friggin Dragons for crying out loud! LOL (and they still have the kooks, koalas, different dragon sizes and more to make) By the time they want to reissue the coins.... the premiums will be so set intact that by that time the demand for silver will be higher, the shortage is likely to grow, and the spot price will most likely increase by that time. Also, mintage is of course a good foundation which is part of the "numismatic" formula which determines a price. But it's only a one piece of the puzzle. There are coins with higher mintages that command higher prices in comparison to lower mintage coins within the same series. Usually a certain design or something unique creates some type of greater demand. If i were to invest only in Lunars (I stick with Pandas and only key dates primarily), I'd either get series 2 coins that are closest to spot or I'd get Series 1 at a good price. Series 1 coins are undervalued IMO
There were other factors why the dragons were a bubble, it was also the fact that they had so much hype behind them (PM website crash, third party shops getting the short end of the stick, silver was back on the rise, etc, etc) While I hate pointing fingers, I think pointing one at the Perth Mint being at least somewhat responsible for the mess/bubble would be justified. I think the Dragons have just about found their range at the moment, with prices as low as the low 60s to as high in the 70s.
About spot x 2 would be a reasonable price for the series 2 lunars. Anything above that and theres a lot of fat on the bone which can easily evaporate.
True there's been a lot of dragon hype but the dragon hype has also attracted a lot of new buyers and collectors to the lunar series
Was anyone on this forum a lunar collector 12 years ago? Was there similar hype about the 2000 dragon? Or was everyone too busy buying Yahoo shares?
there were more people making lots of money in the first Silver/gold stocks up move after the internet bubble burst March 2000 hardly any internet gold/silver bullion seller that take PayPal or even credit card.
This is certainly true. The dragon mania has pushed up all of the coins in the lunar 2 series and indirectly it has carried over to other coins like some of the subsets for Perth Mint.
Dragons are the most in demand in the lunar series and thus reflected in their price in the secondary market. the other animals in the lunar series just dont stack up. Dragons online 1 oz rectangle set sold out in less than 12 hours online. however there is still lots of the rectangle sets of the rabbit from pm and other dealers. and lots of rabbit coins still available.
I kinda think the same way as well. Yet, I see people continuously spend above that premium in coins such as the Tigers and Oxes. I've thought the sweet spot for the Dragons currently is where it is right now, mid $60s to $70. On EBay (worldwide auctions) I've seen the Oxes clear easy over $100 and even here at the forums people buy em for $85-$100. Apmex has been sold out the longest time. Right now I'm getting a few for a decent price on EBay, around $60ish but the problem is that most sellers are only selling a coin or two at a time and shipping starts to eat costs a bit as well. In the end though I think these coins are keepers and premiums have been holding at worst and rising at best.
I think prices are pretty set right now. Since the mintage limit has been reached for each of the coins, I don't think prices will decline from here unless we see a massive drop in spot, and even then I think demand will support prices well enough. While I've seen a ramp up in S1 prices, it has tapered back a little recently. I still think they are undervalued compared to S2, especially when you consider the lower mintage. 2012 Dragon hype definitely boosted the S1 and S2 awareness, so going forward I suspect sideways movement until supply dries up a bit more, then steady annual increases.
Yes I was collecting back into the 80's. As for "hype", pre-internet days there wasnt the communication there is today so its impossible to know what other people were thinking as there werent forums, message boards or anything. You just bought and stacked on your lonesome ownsome
