Has anyone else noticed how weirdly straight silver's price chart has been since the 27th of September? You can draw a horizontal line from right now to back then and hit the trading line nearly every single day. Feels like a sailing ship out on the ocean with not even a hint of breeze.
I noticed this too, even though the silver USD price has been going up since then. It'll be downright frustrating if the silver USD price goes down and we go down together...
The reason AUD silver is going flat is because the USD is declining in relation to the AUD. Look at xe.com currency... it was 1 USD to 1.06 AUD back on 10/4 now its 1 USD .977 That's a 9% increase in 2 weeks?!?! Yes its frustrating Perth Mint didn't process my payment until a couple days ago and I paid nearly $40 extra for my order due to the exchange rate. Funny thing is look at the chart and AUD value nose dives around sept just in time for the first dragon release, then stays down until a couple days after Oct 4, then it shoots straight up... coincidence??? Or was the AUD artificially deflated to make dragon coins more attractive to foreign collectors? So Silver going up + AUD getting stronger vs USD = flat chart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7Nb4voFm30 stolen from the pirates! See http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...am-overnight-spot-watchers-spot-page-102.html
US Dollar down...investors moving money back into commodities/stocks/other currencies based on Euro rumors...supports strong AUD. Link to Wall Street Journal article... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576638662654872384.html?KEYWORDS=us+dollar
supradealz why on earth are you buying from the perth mint from the US? I'm right here in Perth myself and am frustrated by their high prices (for ugly bars) vs the prices you can get in the US. I've seen 10oz bars on gainesvillecoins website for only $1 over spot. If I lived in the US still I'd be ordering from them.
For whatever it worth, this guy said Aus$ uptrend is over http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php
Another input I can add is this :- If RBA reduces the cash rate below the current 4.75%, AUD/USD will drop (for us this means silver / AUD price will rise). Next decision dates are 31 October and 4 December. Watch out for these dates, it might happen soon as I remember RBA signalled that if they see inflation in Australia tapering off, they will reduce the cash rate. I hope they do!
Reduction in inflation means the value of the AUD will be higher vs other currencies where inflation is still going strong. I don't see the logic in what you're saying. Also, if the US continues to debase its currency (which it must due to its massive debt) the USD should drop relative to all currencies. Well except the Euro perhaps. US debt has already reached critical mass. There's basically no way to avoid a collapse. Its just a matter of how long can they maintain orbit around the black hole before getting sucked in past the event horizon. So the only way I see the AUD dropping permanently vs the USD is if something just as bad happened to the AUD. If Australia is smart, they'll forget about maintaining the currency below USD. For in not watching where the USD is going they will run their own currency into the ground. Its like everybody is trying to play a game of who can pull their parachute last. AU needs to watch the ground approaching, rather than watching US in this game.
Not much. The appreciation and depreciation of our dollar is fundamental, not technical. Drawing a couple of lines on a chart doesn't work.
@Recon: You are correct that if deflation happens vs high inflation countries, all else remaining equal, AUD will be higher. But what I'm just saying is that should RBA decide lower the cash rate, the effect is that it will push AUD lower vs other currencies, including the USD. Short term interest rates is a big factor in currency valuation.
Yes, but the RBA does want some inflation. Their job is to basically keep a healthy inflation ratio 2%-4%, the last thing they want is no inflation. If CPI shows inflation is high, they will raise the price of borrowing so people will stop spending as much and rein in inflation, if the CPI Shows inflation low, they will lower interest rates to stimulate spending. Its a balancing act of making money cheap or expensive through 1 switch, interest rates. What gelxi is saying is that, most likely the RBA is going to reduce rates which will make our money cheaper (inflation) and drop in comparison to the USD. But I see what your saying, the US is creating money like crazy, their interest rate is 0 and their money should be cheeeeeeeeeap!!! so they are creating inflation like mad, and should be dropping like crazy but there is something about the dollar and its historic use as a world reserve currency that gives people illogical confidence. So its hard to see whats going to happen, in relation to the 2 currencies. The RBA may in time even drop rates on purpose and debase our currency somewhat (chinese style) to keep our exports alive. Its hard to say whats going to happen with currency, thats why Im going metals Forex is like going to the casino these days.
The thing is, keeping exports alive (to Americans) used to be a good idea because of America's enormous consumer base. But now America is getting ready to enter a deeper depression. That consumer base will vanish. Most Americans will be poor. Not a very good pool of people to expect to export to. Keeping the AUD lower than the USD on purpose just so Americans will buy our stuff is, in my opinion, very foolish. AU and China should just pull the peg and trade with each other and let the USD die.
Americans are the biggest consumers in the world. This is a combination of having the 3rd largest population and a decent amount of expendable income per person. While China and India have the numbers, they have nowhere near the same amount of money per person to spend. The US, was just shy of 30% of global consumption 30 PERCENT!! that is staggering when you consider Japan is second at 8.5%. China is 4th at 5%. So needless to say, Americans like buying stuff, and everyone is happy to sell it to them and is not gonna cut ties with them any time soon. But like you said, this may drop off if their dollar isn't worth a shit and they cant afford anything anymore. China really needs to stimulate its internal consumption, but for that to happen it has to stop manipulating its currency and let it go up so its people can afford more with their money, but again this is a double edged sword because it makes their exports more expensive.
Anyone notice the amount of stuff on Ebay from america lately, crap loads compared to a while back. WE are the consumers now . The demise of america although cheered by many spells bad times for all and I'm not a "huge fan" either I just know there is a difference between bad and worse
