I'll have some of what you're smoking. How's this 5 year Deutsche Bank chart looking to you? Let's look at the 6-month charts for two other major German financial institutions: Let's not consider the likes of say RBS or Lloyds or ANY French banks. Although I agree that Germany will not simply seek an out and that the "beggar thy neighbour" currency weakness benefit them greatly, the picture you paint is a little simplistic. No doubt the "big players" have a role to play, but when trust leaves the system all bets are off. Interbank lending is seizing up again. The banks are in trouble and ain't no bailout going to help them.
Well... I would not take this toooo serious... It's still a rumour (I'm not so sure what I should think about Max Keiser in general, ... sometimes it's hard to see the difference between omniscence and pretentiousness... however, the latter is by far more common ) This rumour is not so new, by the way: There's a german website ( http://hartgeld.com/Waehrungsreform-DE.html ) that keeps track of many events that could be interpreted as signs of a currency reform and a re-introduction of the German Mark. I assume that everything written there has to be taken with a huge grain of salt: They are writing about the currency reform as if it was about to happen in the next few days... and they are doing so for a few years now Also, it looks rather conspirative, and ... well, they are sponsored by PM traders... But at least there are many signs that the option of leaving the Euro is at least considered and discussed... It would not be easy, however. As Photonaware already pointed out: The Euro is rather important for Germany, since the German economy is heavily depending on exports. Always having been proud of being the "Exportweltmeister" (~export world champion, the country with the highest value of exported goods worldwide... although recently overtaken by China) Germany would indeed have a problem with its own currency: The value of a new "Deutsche Mark" would increase compared to the Euro and probably most other currencies, and the exports would drop dramatically. Apart from being a potential desaster for the German economy, it would also be a political message with unforeseeable consequences for Europe as a whole - that's far too risky for most politicians. Many politicians (most prominently, German Chancellor Merkel) have emphasized that a failure of the Euro would mean a failure of Europe... and she definitely does not want to be blamed for that... At the moment, there's hardly a reason to completely eliminate the possibility of a currency reform, but it's unlikely for several reasons. At least, I consider it more likely that we will see Greece fall as the first of several domino bricks, and the other countries will pay the bill until all European countries are united in screwedness.
If Germany leaves the Euro its going to be huge, I'm German myself and personally i felt along with many of my family still in Germany that things where much better under the Deutsche Mark anyway. Merkel is about as popular right now as Gillard, people don't want there taxes going towards bailing out a country German's see as a total failure of lazy people(this is a widely held view within Germany).
Can anyone confirm that that current printing (and 'hurry up' by the German Government) of the Deutsche Marks is true? Personally I think the Euro will go down in an economic cataclysm OR the sovereignty of individual states will disappear and the Euro will survive economic borders. More power to Brussels etc, and I'm leaning toward breakup of the EU as it now stands. Perhaps smaller spheres of economic influence for Germany, Netherlands etc, and third world status for PIIGS. I'm in Europe at the moment, in the potential german economic sphere of influence, and the evidence of economic strife is everywhere - all those empty shops and for sign sales. I don't think Germany actually has much leeway to bail out more, regardless of the immolation of its current crop of politicians to keep the EU alive.
I heard that the next strongest political party after merkel's are strongly supporting euro. Is this true?
I think this current crisis will be "spurred" by a Greek default 1st. But these are my thoughts and frankly speaking, just a hunch.
Here is the original source of the claims. http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html She does seem to be a credible source, shes not just another Chapman.
It's a interesting situation similar to Australia where nobody really wants Gillard or Abbott in it's just which one they hate least. In Germany the opposition party is soaring in polls but when you speak to German's it's not because there policy's are better it's simply because they are fed up with Merkel and there is only one other option. To answer your question yes you are right. There was a interesting article on ABC this week where they interviewed German's in the street and they couldn't find anybody who was for the bailout of other euro nations with tax payers money so for the people to support a political party that supports the euro is hard to understand. I dare say politics in allot of developed country's have really hit rock bottom since the bailouts.
Thank you. I guess, politically, everyone is stuffed. Germany exiting euro is kind of logical, but politically unfavorable.
I am not sure if I said it on this forum a while back, but I think the only reason that Germany is even consenting to these bailouts in the first place is to buy themselves time to save their own banks and work out a solution to leave the Euro. Once everyone woke up to how much debt the PIIGS had they must have realised that the jig was up and it was time to make a contingency plan. Germany needs to leave the Euro as soon as physically possible.
Presumably most European Banks have write-offs due to investments in other banks and government bonds for countries that are about to default (Greece...). Specifically for Germany, Trichter already posted some charts that I'd prefer to see upside down One large bank, "Hypo Real Estate", has even been nationalised as a consequence of the first GFC. Apart from that, Germany does not have many large banks at all: By far the largest one is the "Deutsche Bank" (by the way, the largest European Bank operating in Australia) which has a market capitalization of ~36 billion , and thus is still smaller than the smallest of the "big four" in Australia (NAB, ~39 billion ). They announced a profit of ~10 billion for 2011, but recently had to lower the expectations a little (however, considering the current conditions on the financial market, 10 billion could be considered "obscene"....). What Lovey80 said is also something that is criticised by the opposition, mainly by the left parties at the moment: They argue that all the bailouts only have the goal to give the banks enough time to pull their money out of Greece, and that the money of these private banks is "replaced" with the money of the ECB. This is grist for the mills of those who always criticised that "profits are privatised and and losses are socialised".
Will the European elite allow Germany to leave the Euro, in turn potentially setting a precedence for other European nations? Furthermore, will the US elite allow Europe to do so, thus setting a precedence against the US dollar? 'Tis becoming more and more of a dog-eat-dog, damn if we do, damn if we don't scenario...
Maybe US would "prefer" the Euro to collapse? People will naturally run to USD if Euro is out of the picture. Just a conspiracy theory though. :lol:
People are more aware now of what's going. If the Euro fails, due to bad debts etc. and the USD is just as bad, if not worst, what's to say the USD wont follow? I know many people are hoping for this to happen. It seems like a fair argument, but where to if not the USD? There is currently no alternative being 'sold' to the general public, hence the charade of a strong USD is/will be continued. Their time of 'buying-time' has or is close to running out.
