It is still early days but once the 1oz dragon mania settles down, I think its price level will approximate that of the current Lunar tiger. I have already brokered a number of swaps with people willing to swap their lunar tigers for 1oz dragons. There's also a number of people willing to do a reverse trade for tigers when they source their dragons from the mint on the 1/9/11 Personally, I think there is going to be such a glut of other dragon coins that is will drag down the price of the 1oz Dragon. Expecting the Tiger to remain at the top of the pile for quite some time.
I am not so sure, if I had to buy them at the inflated price I would do it to make some money so I wouldn't be keen on dropping the price. Maybe it is different for someone doing it as a business who may have hundreds of them, they might prefer to sell at a loss rather than have it sitting on their shelves but if I just get one or two at the high price, if I can't sell them for more than I paid for them, they would sit in the bottom of the safe until I had sold all the other silver. Plus I think that supply and demand will keep the prices high. It looks like they will all go to private owners nearly straight away which means there will be none around on the shelves to buy, the other lunars took years to build up to the premiums they are commanding now so it is not unlikely that people will see the dragons as a long term investment. Something to put away for the Grandchildren. In which case we may not see that many on the market and the few that are resold will be able to charge what they want. I think that the number of other sized dragons may make the novelty wear off and I like the larger sizes but I still think the 1oz with its limited mintage will be a good investment if you can get it at the right price. Now I just have to get one.
The 1oz is only important if you are a collector building a set. There is no hard and fast rule that you must store 1oz Dragons for your grand-children. You can just as easily store 1oz rabbits, tigers or mice Be a cheapskate and hold 1/2oz dragons for them instead. There won't be a shortage of the other sizes and that will definitely put a damper on any windfall profits that the speculators are expecting.
Tentatively agree with AEL. I would be happy to use 2 x 1 oz dragon swap for any previous 2 oz lunar coin whatever s1 or s2
But surely the only reason the 1oz are selling for so much is because of the collectors and what they are willing to pay to get a set. The only reason I want the 1 oz is so that I can sell it to a collector in years to come. I have no interest in the Chinese Lunar Years as I am not Chinese and I do not believe in Horoscopes. For my own personal collection I will be going for some of the larger sizes to bring the premiums down and becasue they look more impressive, if anything I would go for the 2oz for presents over the 1 oz as the price will be the same and the kids aren't interested in the numis side of them anyway.
Music to my ears Steve. It was your advice last September to buy the tigers over the rabbits. The rabbits have done well too, so it was a win-win situation. You can pm me the tiger-dragon swap details. Since I am in the US, the whole thing might be too complicated, but I might be interested in a swap. However, I am still disgusted over the dealer price gouging and that is leaving a bad taste in my mouth regarding anything concerning the lunars.
Mania induced speculators are driving up the price not genuine collectors. Unless you own a couple boxes of these coins, a few coins isn't going to make you rich. I think the 1oz tiger has more upside this year than the 1oz dragon.
I tend to agree. Either the dragons will fizzle a bit or the previous years will do well as new collectors chase up years that they don't have.
I am certainly not complaining about the tigers going up, but I am curious as to why you think they will go up even more this year? They certainly weren't that popular a few months ago.
Ship them to Oz and see how fast they shift. There is a stacker here looking to buy 300oz @$55 AUD each and he's not having much luck sourcing any. Happy to refer him to you. Cheers
I agree with Steve. We've seen this before with Perth Mint coins, a massive spike in their price and once they start to appear on the market in number the price starts to fall. We havent seen the real volume of 1oz dragons enter the market yet. APMEX and Gainesville probably have I reckon half the 300k mintage between them. Loosely speaking I'd say 150k are with apmex/gainesville as the US distributors, 100k in Europe and 50k for the rest of the world including Australia. As a result its not until apmex and gainesville begin to release some volume into the market will we see the price normalise (drop).
Dude, the design is out already, no more picture embargo. Gold dragon, fugly. This one has a chance of flopping completely and stuffing the series 2 gold. Silver dragon, the exact same dragon as series 1 dragon, facing the other way. Still hot ... (in a lazy perth mint being cocky, can't be bothered designing and knowing suckers will still buy) kind of way.
It is just a mirror image of the 2000 design pretty much. I wonder the effect this will have on the 2000 coin price ?
Gainesville already asks for $1800+? http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/pro...ilver-perth-mint-year-of-the-dragon-coin.aspx
Cheers. You can see what little interest I have in the whole thing now! P.S. I thought those images were just mock-ups. I thought they'd have come up with a new design. :/
mania or not, I am getting other than 1 oz first, since they are ready to be shipped. if silver price does go down again, I will be back buying the 1 oz dragon if they are available for sale.
