Hey guys, Most would of probably seen mike's 500 ounce speech on YT right??? Here he says that the time to exit silver should be when 500 ounces of silver could buy you an average house in obviously the US worth $200000 which would probably be a 3 bedder right....so it got me thinking what price would silver have to go to in say the next 3 years to buy a 3 bedroom house in Australia say in Sydney??? Cheers
Depends how much Australian property rises or falls over the next 3 years. On current price average of say $500,000, then 500 ounces of silver would need a spot price of $1,000 !
" On current price average of say $500,000 " that's a joke isn't it :/ it's more like $700K for a stock standard 3 bed home in Sydney now a days
Absolutely. Very average three bedder with functioning but shabby kitchen and one small bathroom sold for 715K at auction in my street. I'm about 15 kilometres from the CBD. Others with sale asking price in the high 600's. All average.
Here's some US and Sydney data: http://www.abcdiamond.com/median-house-prices-in-usa Assuming then that (about) $200,000 is a "time to get out" signal, that would be a USD spot price of $400 per ounce.
I believe that we'll get a drop in the value of houses when the property bubble bursts. When all the issues in the US and europe, japan etc cause Australia's own economy to cave in, people will no longer be able to afford the current high prices. It is then that we'll see the price of houses fall relative to silver and then Maloney's advice will become more relevent to us.
With a declining spending in the economy and a double dip international recession on the cards despite liquidity beyond belief, it might be time for Aust property prices to come back to reality.
Here's the problem, I began to check these figures, and came up with this chart of median pricing of New Houses in the United States, from a US Government source Did you see the problem? from a US Government source
Maybe that might be true for Canberra however, it's not going to drop that much in Sydney. The variables are simply not there. House prices would have to fall by 30% here in Sydney to get them back to $500K and that's not going to happen.
So if the dow tanks like it did in 2008 you don't think the property market will be affected? People are already pulling their heads in on property prices, another big shake out is just going to exacerbate that.
No. For the prices to drop this far in relation to silver would be considered a 'national disaster' affecting over a million 'mum and dad investors' The owners of the country will bankrupt the nation on forced austerity measures for the 'good of the nation' under fear mongering before they allow house prices to sink so low. Houses in Australia are investments and by extension, political tools - not shelter. It's the paradigm shift that has social welfare groups in a frenzy, whilst political and investment classes shift uncomfortably in their seats whilst giving hollow denials of it. But that's the realty of this situation and whilst in the US even today you might be able to score a house for 500 ounces, I've seen quite a few for 1000. But Australia's market is still measured solidly in the 1000s and that's the intention of the current financial and political climate to keep it so. I wouldn't assume a 500 ounce investment is a bad option, but you have to also be a realist about it's near term future capacity to buy you anything in relation to bricks and mortar in Australia. Australia is still by and far (on average) the highest priced property market in the entire world at present. By time the Australian property market drops to such a point that 500 ounces of silver will buy you a home here either Australia has entered a horrific depression, or silver has absolutely exploded against fiat. All contrary indicators at present wouldn't point to either being a likely scenario in the next 3 years. If it does, you have a lot more to worry about than buying a house.
Nope I don't :/ There are so many countries up the creek without a paddle and here in Australia we are trying to get massive projects up and running and not enough skilled or unskilled people to man those projects. We have a aging population compounded by the lack of new houses being built. Yes, some of these projects are in the bush however, other projects equally as big (example the new high speed fibre optic roll out) are right smack in the heart of the major cities. There will be a slight correction in the housing market but the new emigrants will fill those gaps easily. Already in my surrounding suburbs their are hundreds of foreign Indian, Asian, and Himalayan students lining up in bucket loads to rent those houses even if its 10 or 15 to a house. So, long as China is buying our ore and there is high unemployment in Europe, there will be heaps of foreign qualified workers coming to this country for work - simply to survive. Do you honestly think that once they land in our beautiful sunshine beach ridden, cold beer bbq country they will go back to their rain, cold, grey, bleak, moaning, dirt ridden countries? not a snowball chance in hell will they (would you! In fact, they will recommend the move to other family relatives and friends so there will be more and more people coming seeking out a better way of living. Hence properties will stay stable in the major cities (Mel / Syd) these are cities where as I'm afraid Bris/Adel and Perth are mere large towns sorry guys no offence intended Now, as I said at first they will drop by say 20% - 30% from today's prices (perhaps if all hell breaks loose) but they will still remain extremely high for a single person or young family to purchase. If you have 14 other mates who you'd like to share one bathroom with - well then you'd be able to pick up a property :lol:
