[PR] Why Pandas Are A Good/Better/Best Investment

I welcome everyone who collects Pandas to put up their reasons why Pandas make a good, better or best investment.

Here are my thoughts, modified from a previous post:

Here are the reasons why I am converting almost my entire stock of silver and gold into pandas.
1. Panda Pricing: Pandas are just as cheap as Roos/Sovereigns/etc, but rarer, and in more demand.
A 1oz silver American Silver Eagle normally retails for $40-$45, a 1oz silver 2011 Panda also retails around that price.

2. Panda Numismatic Advantage: A few years down the track, a Panda is worth more than its mere bullion price partly because of its rarity. Almost all old Pandas are also worth more than similarly dated Roos/Kooks/etc, even though they were priced about the same when released. E.g. A 2009 1oz Silver Panda was the about the same price as a 2009 Kook/Maples/ASE, but today that 2009 Panda is worth more than double the price of the equivalent Kook/Maples/ASE.
http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-160790.html#p160790
A 1993 Carded Kangaroo sells for $47.
A 1993 Panda would sell for about $120-$200 (depending on condition).

Even a 2010 Panda sells for $50.
A 2009 Panda sells for over $90.

3. Liquidity: In a rush, I KNOW that Pandas can be sold faster in China than any other type of bullion. In Singapore or Malaysia, Pandas also sell for a premium. In the USA, slabbed/graded (PCGS/NGC) Pandas sell very well. In these silverstacker forums Pandas have almost always sold out for me - but I am still trying to sell my ASEs/Maples/Kooks/Koalas/etc. I even took some Pandas to Israel, and there was huge interest in them, but almost zero interest in other types of bullion compared to them.

In Australia I can sell the Pandas fast. (Almost any coin dealer will offer a price)
In China I can sell the Pandas fast. (Almost any bank or coin dealer will offer a price)

In Australia the Kooks/ASEs/Maples sell at a normal pace. (Almost any coin dealer will offer a price)
In China the Kooks/ASEs/Maples do NOT sell well at all! (No banks are interested; only a few coin dealers will offer very low prices for these)

4. Panda Price Stability: Pandas usually do not fall quickly in price, maintaining their historical highs. This is fantastic! While other bullion coins are purely dependent on spot (e.g. Kooks/Maples/PAMPS/ASEs) Pandas maintain their prices. This is why it is important to get into Pandas asap, because their prices generally only move in an upwards direction. When silver was at $32/oz, people were still buying and selling 2010 1oz Silver Pandas at between $45-$55each. No ASEs/Maples/etc would sell at those prices.

5. Pandas are 999 Gold: In Asia, 999 gold/silver is always preferred over non-999 gold/silver (e.g. Sovereigns, etc). In Australia I have also had an easier time selling my excess Panda collection than I have had selling my previous sovereign collections. Perhaps in Europe they prefer their non-999 coinage, but for me I have found more demand for 999 coins. I have read that Greeks like sovereigns, but I can hardly see a scenario where I would be flying to Greece to sell my sovereigns. But I can envisage more scenarios where I might want to sell my Pandas in the nearby neighborhood E.g. Singapore/Malaysia/China/etc.

6. Panda Demand: There is growing demand for Pandas worldwide. People throughout the world are interested in Pandas. But demand for Pandas is especially strong in China. This alone can drive the price of Pandas upwards, not even accounting for worldwide demand. Simply put, Pandas are the easiest form of bullion for the Chinese to buy. They do not buy into ASEs/Maples/Kooks/etc. They go to their banks and/or dealers and buy Pandas. The demand for bullion in China is growing, and has a greater market potential than any other economy in the world. 1.4 billion people wanting silver/gold Pandas is likely to drive Pandas sky high, and past spot rates... but this demand will only mildly effect the price of ASEs/Maples/etc.

7. Rarity: Each month, the US Mint can make around 6million 1oz silver ASEs. In about 2months, the US Mint can exceed the number of 1oz Silver Pandas ever created. ASEs are pure speculative buys on spot (if spot goes up you win, if spot does down you lose). BUT Pandas are an investment that isn't purely dependent on spot. If spot goes up, the Panda price goes up, and you win. If spot goes down, the Panda price often remains the same, and you can still win.

Since 1986 over 241,991,982 1oz American Silver Eagles have been minted.
Since 1983 only 10,658,000 1oz Silver Pandas have been minted.

That makes Pandas roughly 24 times more rare than a silver eagle, in a population roughly 56 times bigger than Australia. With such overwhelming statistics in Pandas favor, I can imagine that demand for Pandas bullion alone is going to be many factors more than any other type of bullion coin out there.

*Bonus Reason: Jim Rogers buys Pandas. He's like the most amazing down to earth investor that I have heard, and he's been on record for buying over $270,000USD worth of Pandas in one hit.

This is my homework: Based on real silver data.

If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of silver Maples/Kooks/etc in 2009, I would have made a modest gain of about double (spot $16/oz to $32/oz). [ASE then about $20, now $40] (100% Gain)
If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of silver Pandas in 2009, I would have made an awesome gain of about 3.5 times!!! [Panda then about $22, now $95] (331% Gain)

If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of Maples/Kooks/etc in 2010, I would have made a modest gain of about (spot $20/oz to $32/oz). [ASE then about $24, now $40] (67% Gain)
If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of silver Pandas in 2010, I would have made a modest gain of almost double (1.7 times)!!! [Panda then about $28, now $50] (79% Gain)

If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of Maples/Kooks/etc in 2011, I would have about 250oz of ASEs.
If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of Pandas in 2011, I would have about 222oz of Pandas.

If I expect Pandas to hugely under-perform in their 1st year at only 12.5% appreciation instead of the previous 79% gain, then I only have to wait 1 year to recuperate the lost number of ounces due to the value of Pandas rising. My Pandas are now worth 249x ASEs. But the ASE value remains locked at spot, and worth the same amount of ASEs (250oz).

If I expect Pandas to perform at half their performance in their 2nd year (166%), then I am already ahead, and my 222oz of Pandas are worth almost 369x ASEs.
But the ASE value remains locked at spot, and worth the same amount of ASEs (250oz).

So, in just 2 years, from 2009 to 2011, I could have made much more through Pandas, than if I had gone only with ASEs only.
Will the next 2 years be similar? I see very few reasons for Panda prices to decrease, but many reasons for their prices to increase.

Check out Peter Anthony's (aka PandaCollector) research on Panda Prices:

Source: www.pandacollector.com

 

I am a bit worried that the 2011 Pandas will not increase in price as much as the earlier ones. I just read they are increasing the mintage of the 2011 one oz silver from 3,000,000 to 6,000,000. The Australian Kookaburra is capped at 300,000 for 1 oz silver coins. The 2010 panda had a mintage of 1,500,000 - they raised it from 800,000 due to demand. Do you think the numistatic value ofthe pandas may lessen as they keep pumping up the mintages???

 

This is a definite possibility but keep in mind that price is determined from supply and demand. My personal opinion is that the increased demand from within China will far outstrip the increase in the supply side. Just my opinion though - not backed by heaps of research.

 

Yennus.. Sorry I have to question your figures.

2010 ASE Paid $24 sell $40 = 167% my figure 66.6%

2010 Panda Paid $28 sell $50 = 78.5%

You are talking about % gained aren't you?

Regards Errol43

 

I also have a similar question as from what I know the 2011 bullions are cheaper than the 2011 pandas from the price I have seen in the forum.

 

Yep, Elemental stated it best. The price of Pandas is determined by supply and demand. As other forms of investments become less attractive (e.g. property, currencies, stocks, etc), the default bullion for the Chinese is likely to be Pandas.

As a guide for how short the supply of Pandas will be, if a major bull rush were to happen today.

6,000,000 1oz Pandas for a population of 1,300,000,000 people. So only 1oz Panda per 217 people.
300,000 1oz Kooks for a population of 22,000,000. So 1oz Kook per 73 people.

So we know for a fact, that Panda supply in China is 3 times tighter than the Kook supply in Australia. So supply is low.
We also probably all agree, that the next metals bull market will create a huge demand in both Australia and China (and worldwide). Assuming demand is equal in both Australia and China. Demand is high.

Panda supply low + Panda demand high = High price

This doesn't mean that Kooks won't achieve a high price, but we know that Pandas relative to their native population are about 3 times more scarce.

 

Thanks Errol43

Much appreciated

Was rushing to get those figures out before flying out

 

Hi Hem9, the 2011 ASE bullions are slightly cheaper than 2011 Pandas, but the returns you get on the Pandas over time, in my opinion, exceed the returns on ASEs.

The Pandas have a natural tendency to turn from bullion to numismatic items very quickly. Whereas ASEs stay as pure bullion.

 

Here are the results of a recent auction on Silverstackers, which kinda epitomizes what I mean, when I say Panda's give a much better return.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...94-ngc-08-icg-ends-sat-night-1159pm-aest.html
2x1oz ASE slabbed, one is for 2008 (MS69, ICG) and the other one is 1994 (MS69,NGC).

These are two ASEs identical in quality MS69. That Sold together for the price of $100, or $50 a coin!!!!

If this were a 2008 UNGRADED Panda, it would reasonably sell immediately for $73 (I have experience of this)...or if it was a MS-69, I'm sure it would go for at least $100 quite easily.
If this were a 1994 UNGRADED Panda, it would reasonably sell immediately for $240 (I haven't had first hand experience of this)... or it was a MS-69, it would have a value of $300 very easily.

Together these Pandas would have conservatively fetched between $300-$400, almost 3-4 times a better return than these high quality ASEs.

Consider which person you would want to be:
a) you bought the 2 ASEs, one in 1994 and one in 2008, and when you go to sell them, you only get slightly above spot. You've been holding the 1994 coin for 17 years and it sells at the same price of the coin you bought 3 years ago!!!

b) you bought 2 Pandas, one in 1993 and one in 2008, and when you go to sell them, you gain so much, you could purchase 6-8x 1oz ASE's MS-69 from 1994!

I know who I would like to be

<if you happen to be an "a" category person, I have 100s of ungraded ASEs and Maples I'm trying to sell, please come and purchase these of me... I've been trying for ages!!!>

"It is said that an argument is what convinces reasonable men and a proof is what it takes to convince even an unreasonable man." (Vilenkin) Hopefully the above is apt proof of the profitability of Pandas over ASEs/Maples.

<I got nothing against ASEs/Maples, I got hundreds of them, but when compared against Pandas, they are simply not as good a return on investment>

 

Excellent summary of the Pandas! This is why 25% of my stash are Pandas (with the rest being kooks...and bits of ASEs and Lunars)
Even the coins that are priced over a $100 for certain years like the 2002 Panda is a good investment IMO as these coins just take off on their own for demand and supply issue in a huge population.

Although at a fairness with kooks, I think they are heads and shoulders above ASE with their mintage and design. I think it's a matter time before they see a nice roaring uptrend as we get closer to the mania phase. Key years like 1990, 2009 and 2008 are good examples.

In the end though, Panda is the best market to get into as far as silver. If I move to Thailand and need to sell silver in Singapore, I'll get the big bucks there selling the Pandas as opposed to the ASEs.

 

Yep, exactly right You should be able to sell your Pandas much more easily than ASEs in Singapore. That has been my experience also.

 

Aside from the ASE, I believe the Pandas will now have more mintage than any other coin. So it is hard to justify that Pandas will maintain the premium they had at much, much, much lower mintages. And despite what yennus claims, the fraud issue is hurting the Panda pricing. The same 2009 Panda that he says is worth $90 is selling in the $50s. Here is the link

https://store.nwtmint.com/product_details/2276/Silver_Panda_Coin_2009/

The 2010s are selling in the $50s on ebay and ebay pricing is normally higher than other sources. That should be a hint that the higher premium days on Pandas are in danger of ending. Again the massive fraud in Pandas is hurting the resales.

 

Once again, many thanks to dccpa for being the devil's advocate.

This is easy to counter.

1. Pandas are RARE
Just view the 1oz bullion mintages of ASEs from 1986 to 2010. They are 241,991,982 ASEs.
Or even look at the 1oz bullion mintages of Maples from 1988 to 2009. They are 39,240,718 Maples.
Then consider the 1oz bullion mintages of Pandas from 1989 to 2010. These are a mere 7,908,000.

That's right, from 1989 through to 2010 Pandas are about 30times more rare that ASEs.

2. Pandas are still RARER
BUT then let's consider the present day situation, of 6,000,000x 2011 Pandas. Is this going to kill the Panda market due to oversupply?
Let's view the 2011 Panda mintage in relation to the other two popular bullion coins, ASEs and Maples.
In 2009, almost 10million (9,727,592) Maples were minted. We don't have current data on the mintage numbers for 2010 and 2011, but we can be pretty sure it's more.
In 2010, almost 35million (34,764,500) ASEs were minted. We don't have current data on what the final mintage numbers for 2011 will be, but we can be pretty sure it's going to be much much more.

So even in 2011, there are at least 5ASEs for each Panda.

3. Pandas are the RAREST
By looking at the numbers, it is easy to deduce that there are almost enough ASEs and Maples for every person in the USA to have either a 1oz of ASE or Maple. ASEs and Maples flow between the borders of the USA and Canada easily; so if you combine their numbers, there are least 281,232,700 standard American/Canadian coins for 307million Americans (approx. 341 million people). We know that in 2010 there were at least 35million ASEs minted, and in 2009 at least 9million Maples; so unless there have been some major mintage reductions, we can reasonably expect there to be enough 1oz ASEs and Maples for every person in the USA have at least one ASE or Maple.

Let's now compare the availability of Pandas in China. There are less than 14million 1oz Pandas for a population of 1.33billion people... that's a pretty huge number of people.
If a person were only allowed to have 1 panda, that would mean that only 1 person in 95people could ever expect to handle a panda.

Let's compare between the USA and China.
There are enough ASE and Maples for every person in the USA to have a 1oz ASE or Maple.
Only 1 in 95 people in China could expect to have a 1oz Panda. WOW - Pandas are the RAREST!

4. Pandas are Premium
Pandas are sold as bullion coins within China, but gain a numismatic edge. This isn't opinion, but is fact.

Let's also remember that Pandas can be easily purchased and sold all over the world where ASEs and Maples are sold; but ASEs and Maples cannot be as easily purchased in China - that's a 1.33 billion people market advantage that Pandas have over ASEs and Maples.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:
Now, let's see what this all means.
We have a bullion coin, the Panda, that has one of the lowest gross mintages (relative to ASEs and Maples), for the worlds largest population, that is also available worldwide, during a time when silver (and gold) are at their all time highs and when inflation and currency fears are pushing people into precious metals, where Chinese people have access to primarily only one type of bullion coin, the Panda.

Panda are 30x times more rare than ASEs. [1989-2010]
5x ASEs for each Panda in 2011.
1x Panda for 95 people in China (not even including the population of the USA).

Are Pandas worthy of their premium? I think so

On the one hand, there is no denying that fraud of any sort hurts a market. But the claim that is really being insinuated here, is that Panda fraud is significantly hurting the Panda market.

Well this isn't very hard to disprove. If such fraud were truly damaging Panda pricing, I am sure the repercussions would be felt greatly in China, especially since almost all banks buy and sell Pandas as their bullion. But no such repercussions are being felt, indeed the opposite is happening! More Pandas are being minted to keep up with demand!

Similarly, if we view the prices achieved by others, I think that should quite easily put this ridiculous comment away. In fact there is a forum that is devoted entirely towards people that have profited from Pandas! A far cry from the fear mongering that some pandaphobes hype up.

http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=2485.0 - LiveBusinessChat Makes Me Rich (from Pandas)

Thank you for sharing the link for affordable Pandas. Unfortunately the shipping of low quantities to Australia from the USA is very expensive, and they don't have the Pandas in significant enough quantity to make it worth ordering from. (Yep, I contacted them hoping they had a enough to fill a tray... but alas they did not... if a deal seems too good to be true... probably is).

I think it's safer to assume their prices are the exception, rather than the market determined price. But then again, I could be wrong. Someone please sell me their 2009 1oz Silver Pandas for $50each. Contact me now and I will certainly buy as many as I can!

Wow... $50s for a 2010 Panda... BARGAIN!!! I would be happy to buy 2010 Pandas at that price!

Alas, just like the above mintage hysteria, and the 2009 bargain; 2010 Pandas are difficult to find for $50s in decent numbers, especially from reliable sellers. But Ebay is a great place to hunt for individual bargains! <I wouldn't recommend Ebay for people new to Pandas... I recommend looking at the trusted sellers mentioned here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11747-safe-people-to-buy-pandas-from.html >

More of the same pandaphobia and pandanoia (panda-paranoia). Dccpa is obviously not keeping up with the [NEWS], and isn't hearing and learning from what others around the world are saying and experiencing.

Fortunately the Panda community which spans countries and languages is generally filled with nice and friendly people, willing to help others. Here are a few examples:
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php - these lovely people actually try to notify Ebay of bad bears when they appear.
http://www.pandacollector.com/rogue.html - ah the revered Panda Collector, Peter Anthony. His Pricepedia is also greatly valued, recommended reading material.
http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=4685.0 - another independent site that actually lists Pandas that are in their opinion undervalued.
[NEWS]insight into chinese panda buying behaviour(numismaster article) - http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...nda-buying-behaviour-numismaster-article.html
[NEWS] What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins? - http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...eople-buy-up-all-the-chinese-panda-coins.html
[NEWS] Silver Demand in China Booming - http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-12472-news-silver-demand-in-china-booming.html
[NEWS] China's Demand For Gold... - http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-12338-news-china-s-demand-for-gold.html
[NEWS] Asian investors stricken by gold fever on record price - http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...s-stricken-by-gold-fever-on-record-price.html
[NEWS] Why You Should Collect (or Invest) in Gold Panda Fractional BUs - http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...t-or-invest-in-gold-panda-fractional-bus.html <no... I didn't write this article... eheheh... but I do recommend it>

Unfortunately I don't get any kickbacks or commission from the above mentioned links, but that's ok, as a fellow Panda fan, I'm happy to help where I can

Thanks again for your interest in the worlds BEST bullion coin!

For real stats on Pandas pouncing on ASEs and Maples read here:
Canadian Maple Fail: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11907-news-canadian-maple-fail-panda-comparison.html
Panda vs ASE Comparison: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11885-news-two-ms-69-ases-go-for-100-panda-comparison.html

 

Actually its common for shops in China not to buy back silver pandas because of the massive counterfeiting.

 

Actually that's very uncommon from my experiences in Shenzhen, Shanghai and BeiJing. Where did you get this idea from?

Similarly, almost all banks will sell and buy Pandas in China.

 

Visa just released new research showing credit cards and better and more popular than cash.

This may seem irrelevant...

Then again, maybe not...

 

Anything to back this broad sweeping statement? Any particular year or is it all pandas?

 

Aren't you trading pandas for ANY other panda where the value of the person selling their panda back to you is only $40s?

"1oz premium 999 coinage valued at $40 [E.g. Pandas/Kook Privies/Andean/Grizzlies/Wolves/Lydian]"

You are in effect stating that pandas are worth no more than $40s to you when they people wnat to trade them back. To me that indicates the true worth of a coin.

 

From people who wrote about their experiences on forums and other places I haven't memorized. There is for example one youtube clip of one guy buying silver pandas in Shanghai and the shop tell him they don't buy back silver pandas, only gold pandas.

But if you have other experiences then that's good, I only bought them myself and never sold any.

So what is the typical price that you can sell a 2011 1oz silver panda for in China to a shop/bank?