Just sharing my own projections on when demand may exceed supply for silver. Assuming a constant environment, based upon a simple projection of the figures alone, my estimate is 2015, depending on the continued growth in sales of "coins & medals" or bullion & industrial demand. I have tried to be quite conservative, and have not factored in any GFC2, silver as a currency, etc. I have also excluded the flow of silver in and out of the market due to investment (too hard to model and not all that useful). I have also assumed that the mining of silver can be projected, which we know is not true due to its complex relationship with pricing. This is not investment advice just my own view, based upon the information I have available to me at present. I am happy to update this with new information as it becomes available or as assumptions are added by other Silver Stackers.
With Germany deciding to end their nuke program, the use of solar will accelerate. Add Japan to the list because their citizens want to do the same. Even France, the most reliant country in regard to nuclear, 77% of the population want to phase out nuclear. The anti renewable crowd will fight tooth and nail to keep filling the pockets of big oil, and the despots who contol huge oil reserves, but people who realise electricity will keep rising at a rapid rate will no doubt turn to solar for their residential power. The price is comparable with coal power and a quarter the price of nuclear. Ten grand today means no power bills for 3 decades. Judging by coal power price rises recently, the cost of buying electricity for 30 years would probably come to about $100k.
Supply will always lag demand though, you can't just switch a mine on it takes years to get a mine into production. I would guess that the things you haven't accounted for like a GFC 2 or even a slowing of demand will cool that off all together before 2015. Not discounting all of the things that will bridge the supply demand gap of course but you may find that a slowing of the economy or GFC may streach that date right out giving more time for other mines to come online and take up the supply burden. Just the simple fact that such a large % of silver gets eaten up in industry (never to return) means very good things for silver long term and upward prices.
New developments in solar technology means the phasing out of solar panels as we know it today. Was listening to this over the radio a couple of days ago (ABC Talk Radio) ... will be replacing with nano-technology where solar cells will be included in stuff comprising the surfaces of buildings, eg roof, walls and windows. It can even be included in paint and painted on. While i'm not 100% sure of this, but i'd have to say this process will use less silver (if any) than for the current solar panel technology
are you including scrap (which is not an infinite source) in your definition of supply? if not, demand has already outstripped supply ...
This is true , any surface can now be a solar panel with the technology today , in fact German engineers are working on a project now that would one day see the road as the electrical solar panel that would supply the vehicle ( what about night ? ) . But its clear that solar technology is going to one day soon leave silver behind . I dont think that it will make or break silver investing , in my view ...
No .. I dont really include scrap supply in my thinking , I know at present that it is a large amount annually , and it will run out soon . But at present or not that long ago at least , silver was a bi product from mining tin , zinc and other metals , because it costs $8 US an ounce to mine silver , the high spot price now has enabled the mining industry to ramp up production , re-open silver specific existing mines or expand their operations . There are countless mines in Mexico about to come on line which will make Mexico become one of the big suppliers , As the Managing Director of the largest silver mine in Peru said " what shortage ? .. there is no shortage " .. Free enterprise will always find a way to supply the demand if there is a profit there to be made . I probably sound bearish ...? .. but i am not , i am bullish in my thinking , I just dont go for all this hype about the ridiculous spot price predictions by well known people who have huge amounts of silver bullion that they would love to be $2000 an ounce . I am bullish because even though we all understand the basics of supply and demand , its my belief that supply and the availability of a product can create the demand
Came across this article by Chris Martenson Wednesday, June 29, 2011, 9:22 am, http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/screaming-fundamentals-owning-gold-and-silver/59850...
Here's a quite interesting article about Silver and solar: "Amidst OPEC Drama, Solar is to Silver What Ethanol Is to Corn" - By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis http://www.silver-info.com/solar-is-to-silver-what-ethanol-is-to-corn.htm
Have a look at the post below yours by Paulo - i believe it supports what i said above about demand outstripping supply, save for scrap and dwindling above ground supplies...
This may have already been covered on this forum - I was reading up about the amount of silver in solar panels and found the above quote on another forum. Some say there are alternatives to the use of silver in panels but it seems because of its conductivity it is the best in solder. One quote put the amount of silver as high as one ounce of silver in a panel?
From... http://www.silverinstitute.org/images/stories/silver/PDF/futuresilverindustrialdemand.pdf It would be good to better understand how silverless the new generations of solar will be. My guess is there will be a place for monocrystalling & polycrystalline panels (silver soldered panels), due to efficiency to space ratio). My understanding is the next generation will be able to convert the infrared spectrum of light, not just the ultraviolent making them even more effcient, not sure how much silver these panels will contain?
I knew they were replacing ordinary lead solder because the lead is poisonous but it looks like it has largely been replaced by tin though this one has 3% silver - Maybe solder for solar panels has a higher perentage of silver over tin. Even without silver being used as a reflective backing there is an awful lot of solder in one panel.
Yes , good information . Charts are a record of past activity to this point and projections are based on factual figures and are about as credible as can be , " but " at this particular time , with the drilling results over the last 12 months showing very successful samples and the mining industry increasing dramatically , i cant see how an accurate projection can be made especially given silver`s huge industrial demand`s reliance on economic stability and growth . I would like to see the charts 2 years from now . But as always with silver , i am prepared to be wrong . However i dont think if supply does keep up with demand , its not all that bad for spot price . I see storing of wealth with silver growing , which is evident in the premiums on coins . Numismatics and bullion coins are quickly seperating from the spot price and the bars are caught somewhere in betwwen .
