Like many of you on here, I'm in silver for the long haul. I understand the prospects over the next 10 years, but what about over the next 40? I'm 24 and have been buying silver/gold for the past year. I don't have much (~40 ounces of silver and a little over an ounce of gold), but my plan is to accumulate slowly over my lifetime. The main goal is to have an alternative base for retirement since I am leery of stocks over the long-term. I am still going the traditional route with stocks/mutual funds, but I just don't feel good about it. I think the world will go through such drastic changes over my lifetime that it wouldn't be improbable to have all stocks wiped out in one swoop (peak oil/hyperinflation/cyber terrorist attack). I also feel like (non-dividend paying) stocks are no better than fiat money. You're just hoping that someone else will buy the stock from you at a higher price but you have no real claim on the underlying assets of the company. Further, I just don't foresee a repeat of the 8-12%/yr increase in stock values for the next 40 years without a game changer like free energy. My questions are: 1) Do you think it's worth hanging on to silver (and gold) over the very long-term, or is the market going to bubble and pop in the next 10 years? 2) I'm currently doing a 50:50 allocation into gold/silver, would you go heavier into one or the other? 3) I'm currently only buying coins that I can get at around spot but that I expect may develop a premium over the long-term. For example, my most recent purchase was a 1904 sovereign that I got for $3 over spot. I am focusing on older coins (>50 years old), but do you think there's any potential in modern bullion coins? I was considering a 5 ounce taku (mintage 5000), but I've noticed that a lot of low mintage coins from the 70s/80s still haven't developed a premium so it makes me a little cautious. Thanks for any responses (I'm new here). -Jim
Oh, and also my gold/silver allocation is 25% of my investment portfolio (instead of the 5-10% recommended). Any thoughts?
By most estimates, silver will be extinct in reachable ground reserves within 20 or so years so I don't mind holding for that kinda time either (notwhithstanding a parabolic rise somewhere inbetween). I'd say a 50-50 gold/silver in terms of $ is a good split. When silver does fall into a true shortage, rather than a bottleneck shortage, all this noise at the moment will appear to be a blip on the graph I'd say. Fingers crossed they don't come up with an effective way to synthesize silver by then! PS. I'd say 25% is an average of where you'd want to sit as a percentage of portfolio. However, during times when commodities are overbought, I'd let that drop to 20%, and at times when commodities are underbought, I'd be happy to let that rise to 40%. That is just me
Lol if in neigh on a 100yrs the premium is $3 over spot I think your best to stick to bars as that is a BAD return
Hehe, fortunately, silver is on the periodic table, as an element. Therefore there isn't anything else that can be brought together to make silver. Alchemists have tried it with gold for millennias!
If silver is an essential element of a range of medical and industrial processes - then expect 'the government' to outlaw its private ownership and use, and licence its control, along the lines of mercury, uranium, radium and so on. It may well be expensive but no-one here will be taking advantage of its prices.
40 years, I intend to be dead by then so my plans will be different to yours anyway but here is something to consider which would tick two of your boxes and a bit of diversity in your stack doesn't hurt. You are going to have it for 40 years You would like it to appreciate in value Sterling silver flatware. If you are going to have it for 40 years what is better, something that is bulky, subject to tarnishing if not stored correctly and requires locking up in a safe, or something that you can store in a kitchen draw and use every day? As to buying close to spot, that's not likely a 1.8 Troy ounce Dinner Fork has about $60 in silver and will cost you $90, but it is likely to go up in price as many of these dinner services are highly collectable and made by some of the big names in the trade such as Tiffany & Co.. You can also add to your stack as you need to by buying as little as a teaspoon for $60 and as much as an entire service for $19,000. The price of sterling silver flatware is not subject to the volatile price changes you get with silver rounds either. Plus you get to eat off sterling silver cutlery, that can't be bad. OK, so it isn't for everyone but I wish I had known about it before I spent $10k on post 46 predecimal coins which look like they had been dug up out of somebodies back garden (got them for a great price though!) Silver doesn't pay any dividends and it actually costs money to store it. No one is going to think a 24 year old has a stirling silver teaspoon so unless you tell anyone your secret is safe (ish)
I am like yourself Jim, being 23 and have thought a little about this also, but it seems pointless to make a plan now and expect it to remain in place without changing. I wouldn't get too hung on deciding what to do in 40 years time, today. It is just as folly to predict a price point for the PM's given their monetary nature and will instead look to events at the time and decide if I think it has peaked/is overbought etc. Silver may well rise into bubble territory and be time to cash out at some point, for me I have a goal to swap most of my silver for gold at some point Unsure of a ratio in my head but less than 20 i will be strongly looking at it. I do not view cash as 'safe', my poles are a little opposite and I view PM's as a store with cash being for day to day stuff. I do not think i I will ever 'sell' my precious metals in the sense that i will swap them for cash to consume. I instead will simply move from one asset class to another with a loose plan of silver>>gold>>property over the next 20 years but who knows how things will play out and what time frame they will be on. I am currently around the 50:50 mark in terms of dollar value for Gold:silver and you mentioned you were 25% invested in PM's, I would not view this as too heavy although you also have to look at it in terms of your income. i.e. if you have a $100 in savings and have $25 in PM's you are 25% allocated, however if you make $10 a week, I would be loading up more because your base is growing much faster. Conversely if you have $100 in savings and have $95 in PM's and only make $1 per week then I would say it may be a little heavy, its about balance. For me personally although I have not actually done the sums, I am around 80% physical PM exposure with another 10% in some ETF's, PM stocks, etc. With most of the balance being in a couple of other stocks and Cash. I think you are on the right track viewing silver as a long term thing not a get rich quick scheme. I have built my stack and am reasonably happy with it and will now start to hold some more cash/look at other investments bringing my weighting down over time. Although I will still buy the odd piece here and there if i feel like it. If you can get coins for spot value, go for it. Just don't bank on them increasing in premium. I have a few sets of masterpieces and some other sterling coins that I got for spot. If I can get a premium for them great. But I don't really care if I do not, they were bought as bullion. I would stay away from premium coins and never pay much over spot for them, but then I just don't know much about it so I stay away, however sometimes my arm can be twisted if it is a nice coin or set, but these are a fringe 'indulgent' item more than a core stack. Hope that helps.
Silver will likely over shoot it's fair price so getting out before it retracts to its true market prices would be wise in my opinion. Then invest in whatever else is on the horizon then if silver looks good again, jump back in. I'm long on silver (5-10 years), can't wait for these fairytale prices
Good to know that people in theirr 20's are savvy to savings. 40 years is bloody long time. I have my PM's stash & will build up savings to purchase what is needed to survive in the coming few years. Electricity just got hit by an 11% increase in Tassie. I am currently into saving 10% of my wages for having fiat for whatever comes along. Good luck to all.
I believe you're right Julie - especially here in Ozzland. However, certain licenses are meant to be ignored... You got a license to breathe mate?? :lol:
i am just a saver ... i am not investing ... i am not preserving my "wealth" ... i am just saving an element ... just like the other stuff i tend to hang onto ... its in my nature ... if it ends up being valuable ... then so be it .... would you like some?
currently 23yo, stacked some, might stack a few more late july - looking to hold for 10 years, however this also depends on the fundamentals =p
40 years is a long time to have money put away and not make a return on it until you sell. Sure you may be rich in 40 years, but you still want to enjoy life now. I do not want to start a RE debate but you need to look at what is going on at the moment....commodoties imo are (hopefully) the next big investment. If Gold meets the Dow Jones 1:1, or 2:1 you may want to prepare yourself to move money to shares or Real Estate or.....????...... (Let me know what you find). It is great that people in their 20's are investing now but do not limit yourself, learn and gain knowledge on other things now while you know Silver is a good investment. When the time is right you will be prepared to change before the rest of the population. Q2; I am personally heavier on Silver, but this will then change over to Gold when the price is right....
