A POINTLESS EXERECISE

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Lurkalot, Jun 7, 2011.

  1. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

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    Would love to hear your explanation for what goes down in 5 years time
    Perhaps the 2.5 billion Chinese and Indian population will realise the error of their ways of returning to real money and decide that fiat is the way to go after all!
     
  2. goldpanner

    goldpanner New Member

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    Well if all that works out according to what people think then silver is a good investment - no one has gone below $30 so if you can buy at $30 you cant go wrong!

    Me - I say $39 end of year
    $49 second year
    $250 five years (dollar will not be worh much by then!)
     
  3. Naphthalene Man

    Naphthalene Man Active Member Silver Stacker

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    While i agree with them, these conservative prices are ruining my dream!
     
  4. Rinchin

    Rinchin New Member

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    1 year $65
    3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
    5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

    I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA
     
  5. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    There is a huge difference between a corrupt police force and no police force. I have no love loss for the US, BUT sadly the coming demise of the US will bode well for no one not even its largest detractors :(
     
  6. Butch

    Butch Active Member Silver Stacker

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    There's an old saying in financial circles "you can't beat the FED" Its this little magot that riggles around in my head and says to me how will they get around the currency issues?
    Qe3 is just arround the corner. I dont see $50 by Christmas.
     
  7. PrettyPrettyShinyShiny

    PrettyPrettyShinyShiny Well-Known Member

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    I think our 'dreams' will all be readjusted pretty soon.. I'd be happy to be dreaming of food on the table and a roof over my head compared to the reality that many people will face.

    I'm kinda just happy I have ANY silver. The weight is reassuring and it most definitely will be once the train has derailed.
     
  8. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    My guesses...(bullish guesses!)

    1 year:

    P(0.6) = $75
    P(0.2) = $40
    P(0.1) = $20
    P(0.1) = $10

    Expected value = $56

    3 years:

    P(0.5) = $100
    P(0.3) = $70
    P(0.1) = $50
    P(0.1) = $30

    Expected value = $79

    5 years:

    P(0.8) = $120
    P(0.1) = $75
    P(0.1) = $50

    Expected value = $108.5

    Hmm...came out more conservative than I believed I was ;)
     
  9. Jislizard

    Jislizard Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Welcome back Yippe-Ki-Ya, do you mind if I call you Yippe?

    1, the realistic value is not what I can expect to sell the silver for unless the accounting actually takes place in the next 3-5 years, here's hoping....
    2, I probably do, I used the RBA Inflation Calculator and used the last five years to do the sums, with a bit of rounding up.

    I expect the spot price to peak and plumment either side of those values but maybe just 10-15 dollars either side
     
  10. pixha

    pixha Member

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    Would be interested to see peoples expected GSR along with their USD figures...
     
  11. Rocksteady

    Rocksteady New Member

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    1 year : $30 USD /oz
    $25 AUD/ oz

    3 year : $70 USD / oz
    $50 AUD / oz

    5 years : $200 USD / oz
    $90 AUD /oz

    All this guessing makes me feel like an economist.
     
  12. capt.sparrow

    capt.sparrow New Member

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    I agree with you. However i dont agree that after 5 years the price will come crashing down to today's levels. There just is not sufficient silver supply to enable this outcome
     
  13. capt.sparrow

    capt.sparrow New Member

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    The US will go to war before the dollar collapses.
     
  14. capt.sparrow

    capt.sparrow New Member

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    If the demise of the US/British empire means an end to the power of the elitist robber barons then it will bring more good than bad
     
  15. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    when they are brought down the new Elite will be worse than them.
    whoever replaces the current Hegemon will be worse for mankind.
    it doesnt get better, it gets worse.
     
  16. Rinchin

    Rinchin New Member

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    I agree. I feel we little people will always be slave class to the current ruling elite. However the natural cycle of rule places us in the Australia/NZ part of the world better than most.

    Our economies are currently heavily driven by Asian demand, we might effectively become China's outsourced miners and farmers. But as the next New World Order comes to grips with their newly acquired power there is much work to do before they need to bother us. As long as we keep sending the raw products I think we will be fine within our lifetime.
     
  17. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

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    Thanks mate and yeh - thats what everybody calls me. either Yippe/Yippee/YKY
    take your pick :D

    As regards point 1, i believe with the looming physical silver shortage a forced accounting will take place, whether central bankers and other bankers like it or not
     
  18. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    1 year $40-42
    3 years $8 or $112($8 if China has a collapse and industrial demand dies, $112 if that hasn't happened by then)
    5 years $7-10
     
  19. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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    So silver at 1/10th the price (inflation adjusted) or less of todays value in 5 years time?
     
  20. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    I believe we will be using Yuan possibly gold backed currency by then or SDR's as a new currency. You could also go down the road of the U.S fixing its problems somewhat in this timeframe not sure how this would happen right now though.
     

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