We've all seen the recent upturn in silver prices which of course is very nice, but I'm wondering exactly what it is that is driving the price up lately. May be it's the ongoing Euro debt problems and continuing lack of faith in the US$....or are buyers just taking advantage of the recent falls I wonder? Heck, as I type I notice we are at USD37.93 !
Global debt and looming slowdown has been a catalyst for gold and silver, and as gold runs up and gets too 'expensive' for smaller buyers they move into the silver market.
I think we can at least cross-out another commodities run as the cause, since the AUD hasn't moved up much. :/
I did not think the bull market had stopped, sure we had a 2 week period where the silver price got smashed due to margin requirements. Fundamentals have not changed. Wonder where silver would be if comex did not increase margins ?
The credit boost thrusters gave out @_@ Maybe woulda hit $55 or $60. Hopefully the next boost will be fuelled mostly by physical demand so that silver can go to da moon -GFC2 or bust-
heard SLV had a 'bank run' for 40 million ounces of physical withdrawals. Thats more than the COMEX holds. Agree with wallynut - Fundamentals have not changed and will continue to attract more investors with debit/credit crisis, QE3 ,etc
Its the continuing trend with a lot of the speculative longs being removed since the last pullback. $33 was the key support and it held up for 2 weeks. In addition the Euro debt problems and front month options expiry (May). Slam
Actually that's a very good point, Slam. I think the price we see for silver (whatever it may be at any particular time) is now probably more of a realistic or 'genuine' price since most of the longs have gone.
kitco.com usually has some good "articles," or commentary rather, about what may be driving PM prices up or down. It tends to make sense.
Its my gut feel, based on my analysis and trend patterns. Fundamentals are still there, Just compare it to January's pullback, took about 6 weeks to recover. Well we know that the CME raised at least 5 margin hikes in 8 days. What do you think this will do to the people buying on margin/leverage? they would had have to cover or sell the position. If these people are burnt and have now left the scene, then who else is buying? If they have come back for more, then does the CME/JPM have the balls to drive it down further??? Its possible, but on the other hand, its close to options expiry, what games do they want to play? Do you really want to force people to take delivery if you drive it down further? I'm sure those buying now are sick of the take downs, if I bought contracts now and the price was driven down to $25. I will not take that loss. In fact I would stand for delivery and actually take physical. Think about it, $49 -> 33. If you have taken 1 big loss, will you take a second big loss buying at $33 going to 25? Nope, you stand for delivery, as much as you can get. Those buying now, I believe are strong hands. Slam
Why would a decrease in speculative longs drive up the prices? If anything it should decrease it shouldn't it? I'm sleepy, probably not thinking straight too early in the morning, please correct me if wrong
Physical jitters in the marketplace, uncertainty in European currency markets. Real silver price is coming Stacking friends
The speculative longs are those buying on leverage / margin. These contract holders were weak hands, hence the margin raises forced them to close out their positions. Hopefully the ones buying now are strong hands. Those that were burnt the 3 weeks ago may not be the ones buying now. Hopefully the ones buying now on margin have funds to withstand such raids or intend to stand for delivery. Lets see how it all plays out. By the end of July, if there are no black swan events. Then $45 USD is likely. Slam
Dollar cost adveraging has been statistically shown to not be a good investment method with poor returns, however, it is also a huge risk to buy all in with ones allocated capital into theyre chosen asset. Why would it be good with SLV, if you are not concerned with price along the way, why bother with price until you sell?
Up $2 then down $1. That's an amazing movement in price. All we need it to do is bounce back up by $2 and we would have another $5 movement in silver. With all the talk of Greece about to default, and the contagion that would cause to the global banking system, you would expect everyone and their dog to be piling into precious metals right now. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwAmpn8ISV0[/youtube]
