I haven't looked at this for a while, my lows were off the mark unfortunately so I didn't open any new positions, the highs are largely playing out according to the script though. Where to in the short-term future though?
if TRUMP momentums are going steady as it is…then we’re looking @ the 47th potus…and metals will be 10% up…we all know he has ‘get-out-jail’ card for him and probably his kids…but his main hurdles are still there, getting his name in ballot paper is the biggest hurdle…I’m not worry about those other court suits stuff…
USA markets want the Fed to signal rate cuts. Gold is likely to trade sideways more or less until the Fed signals a change in rate policy. That may not happen at all this year even though markets are optimistic about a June cut. It's possible that the Fed might actually raise rates again if inflation numbers come in too hot again, which would likely tank gold back below $2k for a while at least. Meanwhile, physical metal flows east as China gobbles up the west's supply. Last I saw, China (SGE) was buying gold at a $50 premium over COMEX pricing.
SGE contracts at CME are settled in cash not physical. There's normally a premium anyway, it spiked to over $120 (just under 4%) in September last year, it was 2.2% in January 2024. That being said, Chinese demand does cause higher premiums domestically which in turn can hurt domestic consumption though driving prices down.
AFAIK, September was caused by importation roadblocks. Current premium is being driven by domestic demand for Year of the Dragon gifts or something like that.
I just have reservations around any suggestion that foreign demand whether institutional or retail on its own is a compelling investment narrative for gold. By contrast I lean toward macro events. Edit to add: there's also the idea that the SGE premiums have a lagging effect to some extent. Could that in part explain the fall in the POG in Oct 23?
Remember the Dems have done this! Vote socialist for gold! The gold stackers hero! We're all fkd anyway!
I keep hearing that the next trillion in debt will be added in 100 days here in the US The last trillion was added in 108 days and the trillion after may only be 90 days. That's what they should be talking about. It's growing exponentially.
