So you keep saying, despite all the evidence to the contrary. That is correct, it's a nascent market and like all nascent markets as it matures some projects will come to dominate while most will fall off the radar. The task of investors is to try to best identify those projects that will dominate in the future hile also remrgenece of new projects. Completely false and a comment worthy of trolling status. But let's not allow the facts to get in the way of any bias. I think this pretty much sums it up:
Smarter than most. The average cost is not ideal but his recent purchases are at a reasonable price as the value of BTC appears to have found a floor. His tax loss selling is interesting, if he were in Australia it would draw the attention of the ATO as they don't take too kindly that sort of thing. I haven't added to my position since I sold most of my holdings around mid-year, but I don't expect the price to find any bargain basement levels below around what we're currently seeing.
Why 50%? I suppose it depends on how far back you look. Long term it's on an upward trend, medium term a definite downtrend, short term looks to be trading in a consolidating pattern. But none of that means shit really because the future price of BTC will be driven primarily by future economic conditions rather than any historical market data.
Theres a huge bearish engulfing line on the yearly and the downward trend continues. Maybe once the rescue stimmies come it will help depending on when that is. I just threw out 50 percent. Could be close to that id bet.
For once I agree with something you say, Shiney, mark that down in your diary! Last year's interest rate hikes are only just now starting to impact economic activity and investment markets in general. Expect the fireworks to start in earnest this year, particularly in cryptos and share markets on the way down & gold and silver on the way up. Looking at past results as a guide to future performance in cryptos is a fool's errand which will end badly for anyone still holding cryptos. I expect another 60% downward correction in craptos this year.
Simples, I expect a sharp worldwide economic downturn this year which will send the sharemarkets down at least 50% from current levels and the craptos will go down for the ride and then some more for good riddance. As for gold and silver, I expect record prices for both metals at least in Aussie Peso prices.
I dont think weve even seen the big shake out yet honestly. Im waiting for Btc between 5 and 10k before its all over. Ill be trying to position myself this next spring when im back at work and making money.
I think the famous Bitcoin will eventually go sub-10 k this year. It just doesn't have the energy to go high. Gold on the other hand is a real asset and it almost hit 1,900 $ again.
Ok, so it's just a random number pulled out of thin air. Gold doesn't have to climb much to reach ATH in AUD, it's nearly there already. On another note cryptos are not going away. They have utility that is valued by users - and until something else comes along that does a better job, then there'll be no "good riddance". Back to the point of my recent posts: there have been no technical drivers of the POG, it's been fundamentals yet no goldbugs posting price predictions about BTC have justified any of their predictions based upon fundamentals (with maybe the exception of @TreasureHunter 's comment about "the energy to go higher", I assume he's referring to investment demand there). So, there's nothing useful at all in a price prediction if it's absent any justification and I argue that TA is not going to drive the future price of BTC just as it's not driving the POG. Humans exist in both a real and a digital world now. That's a result of the evolutionary road we've travelled and the increasing influence of the complex technological interactions we have with others and our environment. Just because you can't hold something doesn't mean it's not real. BTC is as much a digital asset as gold is a real one, and it's chief value to users is one that gold cannot come close to replicating.
Theres maybe a small number of btc owners that use it for utility. Most people own btc because they think it's going to a milion. Its not mainstream enough for utility to drive it higher than 10k or even higher than gold. It doesnt have any real world application any more than a Lambo does but people like to own them anyway.
I'm not arguing that its utility will drive it higher in the near future, I just said its utility will mean it won't disappear as goldbugs like to maintain. BTC (and similar projects) are the only payment platforms that allow peer-to-peer exchanges of digital assets without the need to go through a third-party financial institution. As such it has a unique real world application that cannot be replicated by any other payment method including those based upon the exchange of precious metals. And until a better platform is developed that improves upon the properties of BTC, it will always have utility. Outside of BTC, there are a host of other projects that have real world applications that again cannot be replicated using traditional methods.
I know it wont disappear because people think its going to a million. No one cares about its peer to peer network or any of that stuff. Its not used for that any more than a Lambo will ever see 200 mph. Its just cool to have and say you have it. Its very trendy. Even the everbulls like saylor and all the rest dont use it for utility. They own it for the millions they want to make but those days might be over.
See theres a use for it after all. Its losing value slower than the local currency. I hate to say it but the smart people bought gold years ago. The dumb ones are buying cryptos now. It pays to be a winner.
Let's not get into a "you're dumb and I'm smarter" slanging match. We all know (or at least should) that timing in the market is just as important as time in the market, especially when it comes to portfolio design and high/low beta allocation. There's enough data out there showing that both gold and BTC have their good and bad times.
This what a 50% decline would look like, back to 2015 levels, that's severe and it would have to be a good argument to convince me to agree:
Yep both have their good and bad times for sure and you can own a little of all of it if you want. I just dont think the mainstream crypto talking heads are doing themselves any favors by beating a dead horse and touting a risk on asset as the end all be all of finance. That chart looks bad for the s and p and that indice might not drop by 50 but maybe its the capitulation haha. Btc could still drop another 50 percent for sure. Tons of air still. The next few years will be more about timing the markets rather than time in the markets.
