If it can break, retest, and hold 35k usd then possible Retest but fail 35k then 20-25k possible Or could just be sideways 30-35 for a while to unwind some of the pain Point being I don’t believe too many things are binary
Comments by a few YouTuber's, in the last 24 hours.... Ben Cowan "you know what, we're in a bear market". blockchain backer "I cant see it moving to the upside" crypto crew university "get ready for a mega crash"
I haven't seen anyone post anything similar to this - either on this site, or elsewhere - this is my own work. My preferred BTC topping structure, which (so far) has played out almost identical to the 2017 top. The majority are blind to it, due to the longer timeframe. As always, not investment advice - it can play out differently.
Okay! This is my guess work having followed a number of youtubers that are pretty switched on: It's a Weekly Chart: Heikin Ashi - (All Pricing in $AUD) - Red vertical line is the start of 2023. - Blue vertical line is the halving to take place around May 2024. - Green rectangle is my Buy-zone. $19.8k - $29.3k - Yellow Line is how I think the price will pan out over the next 8mths. 1. A relief Rally to $50k end of June early July 2. Beginning of a Decline in August through September. (Alts will get smashed - BTC Dominance will continue to increase) 3. Fed will panic in September and halt the interest rate rises going into Biden's mid-term office. 4. QE will resume October. BTC will start its long journey North. 5. Most Alts will continue to Bleed against BTC. 6. Am expecting for a massive move of BTC early 2023-2024. 7. Will switch some BTC to Alts towards the end of the Rally. 8. Zelensky will win the Nobel Peace Prize NATO will enter the Eurovision Song Contest and WIN!!! 3 that I follow: Bob Loukas - Very Long term Ben Cowen - Long Term Jason Pizzino - Short to Medium term Swing trader Each offering a different perspective. Anyway, that's my plan.
They were my thoughts when the world's central banks began their path of winding back their accommodative monetary policies because that would be the sensible thing to do. But after listening to the Joseph Wang interview @Leo posted elsewhere I'm not so sure. The Monetarists only understand bond sales and interest rates and are 100% hung up on inflation when it comes to the decisions they make. Wang argued along the line that The Fed will need to keep interest rates at 0.5% above the rate of inflation. What's that? 8.5%? That's obviously crazy as it would inflict huge damage upon the economy and cause widespread suffering. But it's the only tool they understand - and as I've argued (and others) the crisis is not a monetary policy crisis, it's fiscal policy crisis in the making for at least the last 15 years (balance sheet recession) compounded by the supply chain issues brought on by Covid, the war and the last few year's weather events in Australia. So what does that mean for us? There's 2 strategies I see we could play. The first is to sell all assets and be 100% in cash waiting for the bottom of the market and riding out Wang's "worse is yet to come", I think some members here like @heartastack may be utilising that strategy (or at least leaning more toward it) or DCA in lower with maybe ensuring we have a cash reserve for the next black/grey swan events. Which will come. I'd like to probably do plan 1. because I've severely miscalculated the level of incompetence of our central bankers and the missed opportunity the last government had to boost the economy but I think I'm leaning toward plan 2. because I could be dumb as dog shit and I hold the view that the only bottom I can pick is my own. Who knows? I may wake up one morning and decide to sell everything I've got friends who did that toward the end of last year and they are probably feeling good about what they did.
I sold most couple months ago for business funds. I’ll be buying slowly as I can afford regardless of what market does. Never held much cash and never will.
My preferred Bitcoin topping structure is still in play at this stage... fingers crossed my US$50K-$60K target gets hit, with associated alt run-up. Monster short squeeze IF this scenario plays out.
It's just the same as the 2017 top, but on a longer timeframe. The extreme pessimism is also the same.
I can't see any substantial movement upwards until (unless?) we see money getting thrown at us again.
It will keep following the markets down i bet. Theres no divergence yet and the big sell offs are only just beginning. I dont think weve seen anything yet. Might turn around with more easy money but it wont last.
