Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It is not about centralised finance having nothing to do with crypto. It is about the same loathed 'bail-out' behavior/mechanism creeping into crypto. See Bankman-Fried et al antics.
    The journos are just observing an eerie parallel to what happened during subprime/credit crisis.

    Again quoting Levine:

    "
    TerraUSD was the “debt” of the Terra blockchain, while the Luna token was its “equity.” Intuitively, when it blew up, you would expect the holders of the debt to get whatever’s left (equity in the surviving company, any cash lying around, etc.), while the holders of the equity would get nothing. But in the case of Terra, things didn’t work that way: Terra launched a new blockchain, with some residual value, and gave most of it to Luna holders rather than TerraUSD holders. The thing that was supposed to be a senior claim with a fixed value turned out to be mostly worthless; the thing that was a risky bet on the growth of the network kept its value better (still not well).
    "


    FT echoed the same sentiment re. leverage:
    "
    Investors could juice their returns by taking out multiple loans against the same collateral, a process called “recursive borrowing”. This freedom to recycle capital with little restraint led investors to stack up more and more yields in different DeFi projects, earning multiple interest rates at once.

    “As with the subprime crisis, it’s something really appealing in terms of yield and it looks like and is packaged like a risk-free financial product to ordinary people,” said Lennix Lai, director of financial markets at crypto exchange OKX.

    The financial gymnastics left huge towers of borrowing and theoretical value teetering on top of the same underlying assets. This kept going while crypto prices sailed higher. But then inflation, aggressive interest rate rises and geopolitical shockwaves from the war in Ukraine washed across financial markets.

    “It all worked during the bull run where the prices of all the assets went up only. When the prices started going down, a lot of people wanted to take their assets out,” said Marcin Miłosierny, head of market research at crypto hedge fund ARK36.

    As token values plummeted, the lenders called in their loans. The process has led to the removal of more than 60 per cent, or $124bn, of the total value locked on the ethereum blockchain since mid-May in a “Great Deleveraging”, according to research firm Glassnode.
    "
    https://www.ft.com/content/032b95dc-7feb-4a2d-8eac-c71235643c07

    Screen Shot 2022-06-28 at 10.28.22 pm.png
     
  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold makes horrible money- said no one ever.
    When has it not been the answer? Its the ultimate extinguisher of debt and this fiat crisis and the perfect money
    Gold hasnt caused any of this. Its just sitting by like always doing its thing and it will be the same when its used again in the future. Theres nothing better.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    When the mainstream financial system gets propped up by governments and regulators critics descend on those policy moves en masse.

    When the alternative financial system collapses because it's not propped up by governments and regulators critics descend on that turmoil en masse.
     
  4. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    something something finite supply.

    sbf is bailing out only usa private companies as hes trying to save the ftx cftc derivatives proposal, i dont see him aquiring any non usa entities.

    but if its not published on bloomberg or ft by tradfi journalists then that would be all too hard to work out for yourself.
     
  5. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "Like J.P. Morgan during the stock market panic and crash of 1907, Bankman-Fried is taking advantage of the crypto chaos to expand his empire. He recently closed the acquisition of Liquid, a troubled Japanese exchange. BlockFi and Voyager Digital are in his grip and despite his denials, Robinhood may be next. According to sources familiar with his loans to Voyager, Alameda is likely to lose at least $70 million of the credit it has already extended. In 2021, publicly-traded Voyager’s Digital had a market value of more than $3 billion. Today it shares trade for pennies and its market cap of $62 million points to an imminent bankruptcy filing."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/steven...s-already-secretly-insolvent/?sh=2ce1c79647f7

    Screen Shot 2022-06-29 at 3.48.01 pm.png
    Screen Shot 2022-06-29 at 3.49.07 pm.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2022
  6. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  7. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Bitcoin is dropping faster than Kamala Harris's panties at her last job interview! And thats fast!
     
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  8. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just checked and was expecting to see it at $14K or so. Silver has had a good beat down, too.
     
  10. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin could be a tulip-mania. "Adoption rate" for it and any crypto is just the amount of fools embarking on the boat during a given period of time.
    I wonder if Saylor and other permabulls will maintain their opinions regarding "rate of adoption" (on which many have built this almost constant, almost endless rising price path).

    Perhaps it's just an accumulation until people start disembarking.
    Tulip bulbs also had quite an adoption rate and so did the USD and EUR.

    Then again, I might be wrong. There is just one thing that might still save cryptos from turning into air and that's the logarithmic growth curve.
    So, if the latter remains valid, then Bitcoin should bounce back before it dips too long below 10 k. So either it won't go that low or, it will bounce back from around 10 k. And then, the next peak will be around 200 k.

    If all of this is true, then 10 k will be a rare buying opportunity.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    RIP Voyager suspends trading, deposits and withdrawals
     
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  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If we overlay Dotcom Internet stock mass bankruptcy and current Crypto Ice Age

    40 to 70% of Crypto firms and platform that are not making NPAT will go bankrupt. Note: NPAT is not revenue

    When Crypto comes out of Ice Age hopefully S#it Exchanges, S#it Platforms and S#it coins will be less common.
     
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  13. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    yeah nah, bitcoin dominance is actually down https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/

    i cant wait for the next scam coin the kids come up with on the next cycle.
     
  14. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    Only if you include stables, if you don't, it's mid 50s
     
  15. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just proves the sheer magnitude of scam coins or ponzi coins being promoted, that are going to die by thousands cuts.

    Since we havent even started the recession yet, we are in the middle of the crash. Most Dotcom death occured during the following 3 year of recession and recovery not during the crash.
     
  16. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Greed is powerful and it can cost you everything.
     
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  17. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Vauld paused all withdrawals, trading and deposits on its platform
     
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  18. PMCollector

    PMCollector Well-Known Member

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    celsius btc liq value now at zero
     
  19. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    And I got paper gains from Celsius promo codes
     

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