Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @STKR, have a 7 day holiday from this thread.
     
  2. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    and just when the trolls come out bitcoin does a flip reversal and 30k is again in play.
     
  3. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    I missed the 25k buy :(
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol, ban someone and within 1 minute the hate mail was on it's way. How predictable.

    Reminder to keep the personal abuse out of posts everyone, I don't care about the hate mail I just block the messages.
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Don't feel too bad, the volume traded at that amount was likely miniscule.
     
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  6. PMCollector

    PMCollector Well-Known Member

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    I bought a little more, my average is still much higher but I'm ok with it. No one said this was going to be an easy ride, long term letting it play out. PS. not advice, no one should need advice if they fully understand what BTC is anyway
     
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  7. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just hold on a second
    No one is spamming the many threads in the crypto section about technicallike forking of or whosiwhatsit that. This is not a discussion about new coins, emerging technologies, technical details of a coin etc
    It is a thread dedicated to the bubble that is crypto coins. It is probably why it is the most active thread in the crypto section especially given its in a precious metals sites.
    With that in mind any civil discussion or opinion on where crypto is going is in line with the threads title and should be allowed even if you consider it "trolling "
    Note I said civil and saying stuff like "some people are about to get an expensive lesson in basic economics " may be insensitive, upsetting to some and triggering to crypto permabulls but it's civil and in line with topic so I don't see why you singled that out as an example of input requiring authoritarian moderation
     
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  8. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And to all of you who have made money out of it, good on you!
    I am genuinely happy for you. You took a risk and reaped rewards.
    But your profit doesn't change my opinion on crypto, just my outlook on how many gullible and greedy individuals there are in the world trying to make a quick buck who can be milked of their wealth.
    Every bubble makes rich people, but it's always at the expense of others. That's life and why poverty will never be eradicated as some people just can't manage wealth and others can
     
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  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That's because I jumped on the main perpetrators months ago. They're still here in this thread, but mostly they're quiet. Probably because they've learned nothing new about crypto since then.

    Authoritarian moderation?

    @Aelfred's post was an example of repetitive misinformed tripe. He trots it out occasionally, then disappears only to return to stir the pot. If my response (I didn't moderate his post) to it was considered authoritarian then you're too sensitive.

    Edit to add: regarding your opinion that I allow any discussion to continue regardless of whether it is "trolling" or not, well that's up to me to decide, not you.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
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  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'd like to compliment @Aelfred 's posts, I have found them well articulated and I wish he'd post more often on the threads/topics I follow. +1 for posting original drawings and Doomberg links.
    There's plenty of repetition here on the forum. Plenty of posts just to skim over, ignore and forget. The "bigger" the perceived status&standing of a well-known member, the more I'd expect them to tolerate diverse contributions. Wouldn't want this place to turn into too monotonous, either. :oops:
     
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  11. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think people need to distinguish in their minds the difference between investing, trading and gambling. Some people seem to be confused between the three when all are being discussed at once.
     
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  12. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    What about saving in bitcoin?
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    True but I don't think that is the problem here. If we take a well-known anti-crypto schill like Schiff while he may not hold to any conspiracy theories to justify his ardent support of precious metals, he steadfastly refuses to budge on the topic of cryptos. From what I can tell his reasons are rooted firmly in an outdated understanding of what constitutes reality, money and value.

    Essentially his problem is that cryptos are not backed by a physical presence. That's the outdated concept I referred to earlier. We occupy both a physical and a digital world now, we derive value and seek value from and in both realities. It's an evolution of both our consciousness and what needs or desires we seek to satisfy. We seek satisfaction therefore in both the real and the virtual worlds.

    He has the same view when it comes to fiat currencies. Because it is not backed by anything physical his argument is that it has no value.

    Yep, it's not backed by anything physical, but it obviously has value or we wouldn't strive to desire accumulating more of it. It like cryptos has no intrinsic value, but nothing on this planet has intrinsic value. All value is assigned ie objects have intrinsic properties that we value. So in order to justify his position he keeps trotting out the same misinformed opinion, not only on how value is assigned to crypto-currencies but on government issued currencies. While governments create tax burdens that can only be paid for in fiat people are not going to use a gold backed currency in preference to government issued fiat as a means of transacting with others. Sure they may have a preference for saving wealth as gold or crypto, but it's because of how our modern monetary system operates that a monopoly issued fiat currency has value, and in fact a commodity backed currency would be detrimental to growth.

    But Schiff doesn't get that. And more telling, Schiff doesn't want to get that.

     
  14. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You answer the definition of this after this query
    And your absolutely right, you have the authority to moderate as you see fit. I'm just pointing this out with my statement and suggesting a light touch on moderation is best imo and that the "misinformed tripe" as you put it is simply a difference of opinion to that which you hold. Criticism is fine, counter arguments also a great idea. Argue your position and let the parties involved in the discussion or viewing it as an audience decide the merits. But threaten to use your powers to moderate against their position and you don't help your argument.
     
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  15. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think your wrong.he,like others,myself included, understand the argument your making. We just disagree with you. Does that make us Luddites or smart investors. Well only time will tell but the validity of our position is no less than yours unless you have a crystal ball you haven't told us about?
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't think you do.

    What in particular do you think I'm wrong about?
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I threatened STKR and no one else. STKR chose to ignore my warning, kept whinging about moderating as he usually does and got a holiday for his efforts.
     
  18. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok to begin
    You have stated that all items can have Intrinsic value based on the value we assign to them. Thus crypto, having been assigned a value by the market means it has Intrinsic value. This however misses the point of his statement about value. He is assigning value based on the item, individual of all other influences, having value. For instance crypto, it's value is assigned based on supply /demand premise. However it requires the interaction of 3rd party objects in order to fulfill its 1 and only utility purpose eg a vehicle of trade. Take away the tool required for it to fulfil its purpose (a computer) and its rendered useless for its purpose. Furthermore their is no other use for crypto which means all demand based Intrinsic value is speculative and 100% driven by blind greed. This is the common thread to all bubbles, be it tulips, beany babies or south Sea investment. Gold on the other hand has other utility uses (jewellery, electronics, etc) , it can be traded without the need for 3rd party objects and is finite. It is traditionally the item used to prop up the value of trade vehicles eg fiat and its only relatively recently that we have stopped requiring this for international trade. What changed? Simply put we are more trusting of one and another , it is no coincidence that even after its removal from many currencies trade dollars were minted for the sole purpose of international trade between un trusting nations and several Australian sovereign issues are rarities due their mintage being sent in whole to foreign states to engage in trade. Nowadays our plastic notes and junk metal coins are entirely designed and created with the sole purpose of enabling trade in a fixed ecosystem, outside of that system they have no value. Whilst they don't require 3rd party objects to be used they still hold the same fundamental purpose as crypto, to enable trade.
    So why are crypto so valuable and my change has not increased in value? Simple supply/ demand psychology. As demand increased supply did not match pace and value increased. This is where greed and fomo kick in. Instead of the usual matrix of price eventually reducing demand to match supply it actually increased demand and subsequently the price follows suit.
    Now we look that it's big weakness, the same mass hysteria that drove the price up can have the same effect on it. Now this is the point where alternative utility helps stabilise the price in most cases. Eg the shares of a company may do the same thing but the fundamentals of the company eg stock, property, intellectual property etc that form the company will stop the value dropping to zero unless of course the company has no value. Even south Sea shares didn't drop to zero as they had a viable business.
    Gold will never drop to zero as people need it for just about every part of modern life eg medical science. Automotive. Telecommunications, household goods erc
    What is to stop crypto from falling to zero other than the demand for it as an investment/trade vehicle?
    Now correct me if I'm wrong but you seem to be arguing that modern markets require modern solutions and this is it etc.
    But I argue that modern times, with modern trade practices are just 1 major catastrophe, war, etc from reverting back to traditional practices as trust is lost between nations and people seek to protect wealth beyond that history cycle.
    Long read I know but I hope you learn to understand that we are not ignorant to crypto, we may not understand all the intricate details and information about it but we understand the overarching concept and find it lacking.
    History is littered with examples like it and the biggest red flag is when people argue that it is the way of the future, you don't understand it so you are wrong about it and that others have made money from it so it's proven
     
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  19. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    massive oversimplification, ignores crypto utility but lets not do these arguments to death.
     
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  20. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes it is. If our read it you will see v that I point out thatvthe details of it do not make it a good thing. It is just complexity for the sake of complexity most the time. The overall argument is sound.
    But the wonderful thing is we can disagree and both be as right as the other atm. It will take time to decide who is right long term
     

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