India will ban all private cryptocurrencies. There are things in which India goes hand in hand with China. I think cryptos are fashionable in 3rd world countries and countries in economic crisis.
In order to do so it would have to smash through a few levels of support. 1/2, 20K and 10K are all below these levels of support, particularly the USD28K mark which has been tested a number of times. I would say the likelihood of it falling below half of the current price to be USD28K is slim. My view on Raoul Pal is that he's a bit of an extremist. He's pretty good on the macro generally but his predictions tend to be wildly overstated. His RealVision media company is essentially just an advertising outlet for financial advisors, as such I think he tends to hype up his commentary to attract subscribers and "pay-to-appear" industry insiders. If we don't get a confirmed bounce over the next few days then I'd be looking for a reversal in the USD47K - USD54K range if anyone is interested in buying in.
The volume just looks really unexciting. What do you think will drive the wave of retail buying that it needs right now? The downward pressure seems large on low volume and I would be waiting for some kind if high volume sell off to signal a capitulation. Otherwise I suspect it will keep drifting until another wave of excitement (catalyst?)
Low volumes didn't prevent the price rising from USD28K in June 21 to an ATH of USD69K at the beginning of this month so I'm not sure if volume is an obstacle. And of course there's still an uptrend in the last 12 months. No doubt profit taking has occurred, as well as considerable liquidations of margin positions, if this is still going on or for how long it goes for I haven't got any idea. I think retail interest is growing, but I also think that in the eyes of newbies BTC is "expensive", and with the interest in NFTs, defi and gaming, especially amongst the younger demos then a wave of retail buying may be confined mostly to the alt market. BTC price action may have to wait for institutional investment and for all the Yellen, India etc FOMO FUD* to die. At the moment with the threat of rising bond yields due to perceived inflationary pressures and the accompanying tapering and rates rises every market has the jitters. These are opportunities to accumulate and DCA in in my opinion. *edited, I meant FUD.
i think it's looking ok, I believe we only recently hit an ATH of retail holders holding some amount of BTC on chain addresses (9+ million BTC addresses), can only assume that adoption is increasing
I wonder if Raoul Pal has ever transacted on ETH recently -fickle me! Its transaction fee justification's are labyrinth. Agree love Raoul as a Macro but his technical understanding of the Crypto space has been trailing his Video output, though I never underestimate his instinct to identify future trends.
Latest Glassnode insight, some of it is in plain English too https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-47-2021/
