Stolen from another board. After seeing the previous corrections, I believe that this correction is near an end. Note that this correction is at the higher end of the percentage drops (18%) and the mid-late period in terms of length of time (9 days?). I highlighted the two corrections that were substantially larger than this one. I don't know the circumstance of April, 2004, but the 2008 drop was during a once in a hundred year market correction: April 2004: Silver falls from $8.25 to $5.50. A 33% correction. May 2004: Silver falls from $6.10 to $5.40. A 12% correction in only 4 trading days. Sept. 2004: Silver falls from $6.80 to $6.12. A 10% correction in only 8 days. Dec. 2004: Silver falls from $8.00 to $6.60. A 17.5% correction is only 2 weeks. Jun-Jul 2005: Silver falls from $7.55 to $6.80. A 10% for the summer. Apr. 2006: Silver falls from $14.25 to $12.10. A 15% correction only 2 days. May 2006: Silver falls from $15.00 to $12.00. A 20% correction in only 10 days. June 2006: Silver falls from $12.50 to $9.70. A 22% correction in only 9 days. July 2006: Silver falls from $11.75 to $10.50. A 11% correction in only 7 days. Sept. 2006: Silver falls from $13.25 to $10.75. A 19% correction in only 10 days. Dec. 2006: Silver falls from $14.10 to $12.50. A 11% correction in only 14 days. Mar. 2007: Silver falls from $14.30 to $12.50. A 13% correction in only 4 days. Aug. 2007: Silver falls from $13.10 to $11.60. A 11.5% correction in only 10 days. Mar. 2008: Silver falls from $21.00 to $17.50. A 17% correction in only 3 days. Apr. 2008: Silver falls from $18.50 to $16.50. A 11% correction in only 13 days. July-Oct 2008: Silver falls from $19.40 to $8.85. A 54% correction in under 3 months. Feb-Mar 2009: Silver falls from $14.50 to $12.70. A 12% correction in 3 weeks. June 2009: Silver falls from $16.00 to $13.70. A 14% correction in 20 days. Jan. 2010: Silver falls from $18.75 $16.25. A 13% correction in 18 days. May 2010: Silver falls from $19.70 to $17.50. A 11% correction in only 11 days.
We need to test the last level of resistance, which was some sideways movement at $36 USD, in my opinion. 20% correction from closing high would be approximately $38.87. So I think we still have some more down moves to make.
Thanks guys, but honestly....who the f$&4 knows? She's a rollercoaster ride, this one. This nigh on 20% drop would've shaken a few from the tree, as well as made the shorts happy. Sit down. Buckle up. Hold tight. This ain't over... I'm glad I haven't borrowed a penny for my PMs. I shudder to think what the guy who sold his house and ploughed $250k into silver is doing/thinking right now.... Anyone heard from him?
That is exactly how I describe silver investing to people. It is a roller coaster ride with higher highs and higher lows. I tell people if they cannot stand extreme volatility, they need to stick with gold.
PMs are up and down Gold is quite volitile historicaly Silver is the schizophrenic cousin in the PM family that nobody talks about..... Why do you think the lone ranger's wild horse (that would buck off anyone other than the ranger) was called 'Silver'
Why waste your time pissing around with charts for hours. It's much easier to just average in. I was buying between $39 -> $48 and my average worked out to be about $42. I buy less when it's rising and more when it's falling. Will keep doing that until I am 100% in. Then I will totally tune out.
Averaging in is a great way to invest, but I prefer to make larger buys. My last large buy was September 3rd and silver was under $20. At that point I was about 85% pms and pm stocks and I consider that percentage as all in. My most timely purchase and sales are when I use charts as a guide. History and patterns repeat or rhyme. I can't remember who said but there is a phrase something like the following: "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it." Turd Ferguson uses pattern recognition to make most of his market timing calls and he is usually spot on. Nothing wrong with averaging in, but there is also nothing wrong with using charts and patterns to select entry and exit prices.
Just a tidbit I have noticed the last two days. The silver stocks I follow were much weaker than silver for the last few days prior to the current correction. Starting yesterday, the silver stocks are stronger than silver. So I would say we are near a bottom. Of course, the way silver is dropping few more days and Stella would see his entry price. Definitely looks like we are at least going to to test the 50 day ma or ema.
This is what I'm thinking, so I decided to sell most of my Ag this morning before the big dip today and my plan is to buy back at the $35-37 if there is a lot of support at that price point.
Selling late in a decline usually doesn't work out too well. If you look at the corrections I posted in the opening post, we should have hit the bottom today. Maybe not, but selling after an 18% decline is very risky. Even Stella's selling may not work out well for him. He chose a good exit point, but I believed and still believe that his reentry point is way too low. For his sake, I hope he reenters lower than where he sold. For my sake, I hope he has to hurry up to do it. lol
Yeah I know that I'm taking a big risk, I'm just banking on the CME raising margins again so keep the Ag in a decline. I also took profit at $45, but I have a feeling we will get down to $36 dollars and that's where I will buy back. The thing is, we don't really know how big this correction will be, so I bought some gold as insurance today just in case.
sorry for being ignorant... What is stellas reentry price? Also what is ppls stratagy for buying dips, mine is just to pick a number and hope it gets there. What better method do ppl use? I've seen the charts with all the trend lines on them, is that the go?
I believe Stella's price target is $27-33, with the option to update his targets. Personally, I am not buying anything right now. Copper dropped back below $4.20, oil went down and palladium took a good hit. Oil has a high correlation to silver, so that was a bad sign for me. The positive price action in my silver miners today was the only shining light in this drop. Of course, the silver miners were weak for at least a week before silver corrected, so we might have a few days to go. I still believe we are near a bottom, but I also said that yesterday. I would like silver to show a little strength. Flatlining within .30 of the recent low is not what I would consider strength.
Oh dear! ... seems that im infamous on Silver Stackers I have always planned to not sell any Silver until at least the end of October because then it is eligible for a 50% discount on Capital Gains TAX As for being worried... well... Im still up nearly 50% so its not that bad... I dont think there is anything else I could have put money into subject to a CGT discount after 12months, that is up 50% since October. Having said that, the only important thing will be what the spot price will be in October /November. Dont get me wrong though, It still peeves me off about the blatant manipulation of the Paper Silver market... 5 margin hikes in 8 days.. wow! ..
