Ben Davies Silver Criticality Why Silver Might Crash

Discussion in 'Silver' started by dccpa, May 3, 2011.

  1. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    USA
    Not the kind of article I like to see, but I do respect his opinion.

    Full article is listed here:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...lver_Criticality,_Why_Silver_Might_Crash.html


    Scary part is "We believe that the market has been exhibiting the precursory signatures of power law behaviour, and that the internet power law of participation phenomena has produced a point of criticality whereby we have seen the top in silver for this half of the year. We believe a real shake out is imminent, in the order of $15 dollars over 3 to 5 days."

    If you can't sleep at night after reading articles like this you might need to rethink how much silver you should have. I am not going to do anything based upon one article. But I would also note that Richard Russell mentioned that silver is not necessarily in strong hands.

    I should also post the link to the James Turk article that silver is forming another bullish flag pattern:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...r_Forming_Another_Bullish_Flag_Formation.html

    pms are definitely not for the weak of heart.
     
  2. CriticalSilver

    CriticalSilver New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2010
    Messages:
    2,639
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    Israeli Jets Prepare For Imminent Strike Against Iran: Iranian TV
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/israeli-jets-prepare-imminent-strike-against-isreal-iranian-tv

    LOL - Silver might crash . . . into Iranian defences in the form of cruise missiles!

    Can anyone predict the size of the rush into PMs if the mad dog Israelis launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran?

    Perhaps this is their last chance to strike before the USD crashes completely and they are getting ready to take that chance. In any event, hold on, its coming.
     
  3. Flip

    Flip New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2010
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    crash is good
     
  4. pmfiend

    pmfiend New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2010
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    I'll be going balls deep if i see $-15 this week. My only concern is not finding physical metal at the price.
     
  5. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Just finished reading them myself. I like ben davis' stuff to. Couple of nice charts there, comparing the seventies to now, to take some heart from. Still think plenty to go in this bull market. As always be ready to buy the dip.

    Turk's bull flag looks like a case of wishful thinking at this stage. Might well form up for him but much too early to tell. If it does pan out could prompt another big run.
     
  6. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    USA
    I was thinking the same thing when I read his article. The initial stage of almost any drop would qualify as a flag pattern based upon the example he used. Also, he stated that the pms were coming back in price. They did and then they went down again. A drop to $38 would not bother me much. However a drop to $32-33 would piss me off for some reason. The way pm stocks are behaving, you would think that silver has already dropped to $38.
     
  7. hiho

    hiho Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2011
    Messages:
    7,816
    Likes Received:
    21
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    South Brisbane
    $37 is plausible, dont forget all the May contracts due shortly and if the short story is true then there will be some price engineering to continue
     
  8. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    USA
    We are already seeing the premium expansion that happened in 2008. However, this premium expansion started before the price drop. Coins I would consider buying have premiums of at least $5.00. About the only coins I see under $5.00 are 2011 Koalas & Takus. I wouldn't be surprised to see premiums expand even further in a price drop. If silver does drop to $38 or lower it will be a good time to test my theory on the premiums of bars and rounds vs. coins.
     
  9. pmfiend

    pmfiend New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2010
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    I'm pretty coin heavy right now and will be after some bars, depending on premium. If there is a shortage of bars for sale (there is a bit of shortage now, imho, at least in the 10-20oz size) then I think they'll have high premiums very close to coins.
     
  10. Cinvalo

    Cinvalo Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2010
    Messages:
    643
    Likes Received:
    18
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    NSW
    I would have to Thanks You God if Silver drop to 15. I will have to raise my Target Ceiling to 2500oz to accumulate 500oz Silver Dragon 1oz if that happens.
     
  11. NQDave

    NQDave Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    266
    Likes Received:
    44
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Wet NQLD, AUS
    I think finding silver would be hard if it dropped $15, most dealers would only resell silver they could buy at that price range.
     
  12. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    3,353
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Brisbane

    The Iranians are fanatic silver stackers.
    They must have figured out that every cruse missal brings one monster box of silver postage free, yet very accurately addressed
     
  13. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2011
    Messages:
    5,465
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    The Land of Guilty by Default
    You wont get physical at greatly reduced prices.
    Dealers are not going to sell their stock at a loss
     
  14. renovator

    renovator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2011
    Messages:
    6,989
    Likes Received:
    83
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    QLD
    Yes you can !!!! stop feeding the hype
     
  15. Yippe-Ki-Ya

    Yippe-Ki-Ya New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2011
    Messages:
    5,465
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    The Land of Guilty by Default
    Pray tell ...
     
  16. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,183
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Australia
    I had a look around for a reliable source for this but couldn't find anything a few weeks back. Do you have on? I'm pretty interested.
     
  17. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    3,353
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Brisbane
    2.)Every Tomahawk missile contains 500 ounces of silver. Three tons of silver was used in the recent bombing campaign of Libya alone. The higher we can drive up the price of silver, the more expensive it becomes for the war profiteers to murder the innocent.

    http://ithp.org/articles/whyinvestinsilver.html
     
  18. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2011
    Messages:
    1,183
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Australia
    Would be good if he put a reference. :) That is a huge amount of silver. Not sure I can believe it TBH.
     
  19. PerthStack

    PerthStack Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2010
    Messages:
    882
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Perth
    It's bullshit. The computer would be no bigger than your fist and all the electrical connections would only use grams of silver. 15kg of silver would not be needed and you can guarantee the contractor would be making these as cheap as possible.
     
  20. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    3,353
    Likes Received:
    595
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Brisbane

Share This Page