I'm interested to hear peoples opinions on this. When will we see the next global recession? Feel free to vote on the poll or give your comments.
You’re right, but I think this is just the beginning: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/p...onomy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii
I don’t know if the world experiences the same thing together anymore.. it’s frothy as. Many lives totally ruined whilst many people getting rich doing nothing at the same time. It’s a wealth transfer
Just reading Grantham's piece. https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/ "My best guess as to the longest this bubble might survive is the late spring or early summer, coinciding with the broad rollout of the COVID vaccine. At that moment, the most pressing issue facing the world economy will have been solved. Market participants will breathe a sigh of relief, look around, and immediately realize that the economy is still in poor shape, stimulus will shortly be cut back with the end of the COVID crisis, and valuations are absurd. “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” But remember that timing the bursting of bubbles has a long history of disappointment."
Covid 2.0 , 3.0, 4.0 ... "new way of life" Trade wars, talk of climate change happening much faster than previously predicted, pressure on more aggressive climate change targets, governments scrambling to keep the fiat afloat, printing stimulus currency, runs on banks ... I think things are still heating up and the shift of wealth will be huge. I believe that the economy will continue on it's recession path, watch our pm value climbing as the fiats buying power drops.
I agree, and what you describe also leads to another more troubling conclusion. The possibility of a third world war.
We had a million apply for unemployment this week in the us. It's already here but government spending doesnt reflect it. Any numbers can be skewed. We were laid off three weeks ago so we would be counted but we are off every winter for 4 months until spring and it's an "attached unemployment" meaning we will be back at work and we only get 16 weeks of it. Our employer pays in differently for us to collect while we are off so we dont have to seek work or anything like that.
I think the third world war is already in progress. In the 21st century, war doesn't need to be kinetic.
True, but I believe there is a strong possibility it could escalate to that level. If it does, it would most certainly be a nuculear war and have devestating consequences for the world at large. I'm sure you're familiar with the famous Albert Einstein quote: “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
The real recession is typically felt 12-18 months after the crash. So that should be between March - August 2021 Wouldn't surprise me if it was April or July
^^ Last year's crash was covid-induced, and the market has already bounced back, so doesn't really count.