S&P500 (futures) Just below its all time high.

I have been a huge skeptic of the rise in the US stock market since the March lows.

I get don't fight the Fed.

I get the effect liquidity has on financial assets.

I understand that low interets rates make equities more attractive.

But as I sit here the Sp500 (futures) is at 3383 just 14 points below its all time high and I'm not buying it. I think we have a lot of retail interest from younger people who have seen dip buying work their whole lives. There is little consideration of fundamentals and I am betting that smart money jumps in here. I say this will not go beyond 3450. There probably needs to be a spike up to start the correction down but I believe we are going to see a move lower. that will last for many months.

That is my call.

 

Over 20% of the S&P500 is made up of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google - all businesses that do well when the whole world has to stay home.

 

^^^Correct and they have been doing well as they should. But time for a correction now.
S&P500 now at 3334. Seven day winning streak has ended.

 

Is there a blue chip US ETF on the asx that excludes those 5 tech companies?

 

Only ones I'd know would be mid and small caps - IJH and IJR

 

I am not sure if it is overvalued if you consider 3 trillion dollars worth of stimulus and the fact the unlike any other crash the average US income actually increased over the last 4 months.

Also there are some obvious losers ie airlines / cruises but even within those sectors there are some bargains to be had globally within those markets. Just look at US casio stocks.

For example in the Holiday sector, over the last 12 months WYNN casios stock was trading at $150 USD, dropped to $50USD and now trading at $90USD ..... when vacinnes fully available I can see it trading at $150 again within the next few years. That is 50% return nothing to scoff at and WYNN has plenty of cash reserves to ride out 12 months and since it is in America they have enough to ride out another possible lockdown..

Just need to do some research to make sure you are not buying stock teetering on the edge.

Personally I do not think the world will be the same for the 50 plus age groug (vaciines are thought to be only 50 to 70 effective), it doesnt mean the new normal (after vaccine) will destroy holiday market forever.

 

The S&P is 3507 today. Nice call

 

I bought some mlp and hotel stocks. Good deals but as silver has shown us, what is cheap can become even cheaper. I just bought a little just not to miss out.

So far, the cheap stocks I looked at are mlps, coal miners, oil majors, hotels. The cheapest being thermal coal miners, almost priced as though biden will shutdown the industry. Followed by mlps and hotels. I leave out airlines and cruise companies as they have very high maintenance costs and depreciation.