Oh come on Roswell!, you must have crashed to earth recently and not heard about the 1970s. Back then gold went from $35 per ounce in the early 70s, to about $800 by the end of the decade. That is a 20+ fold increase, which if repeated during the 2020s would see the gold price reaching $50,000 per ounce before this decade is over, and there was a hell of a lot less debt back then compared to now. And no, we did not have a world drenched in the blood of children or a madmax scenario back then. There is too much fear porn on this forum, that is why I took a few weeks off from here as it was doing my head in
That's right, $800 1979 is about $8000 today.....stagflation was the economic paradox back then....I wonder what will be the next one?....Come on peoples....who can guess the next catch phrase for all the economic woes about to be faced? Deflastagovid 19.......No not a Russian internment camp.....deflation, stagnation and covid 19. I know its shitty but its a start.
I've expected stagflation for a few years now. With stimuli and shortages and printing it's not hard to imagine.
The end of the Bretton-Woods system in 1971-73 (ending convertibility between the US Dollar and Gold) was a one-off and isn't going to happen again. Not unless another globally-dominant economy decides to impose a "Bretton-Woods-II" also based on gold exchangeability. The early 1970 gold price action you refer to did not exist in a vacuum; you accused me of not knowing of the 1970s but conveniently ignored the impact of the Yom Kippur War and the subsequent Oil Shocks. You also conveniently ignored the sustained inflation which endured throughout the 1970s. The US Federal Reserve and the ECB have been ZIRPing, QEing and "injecting liquidity" into the system non-stop since 2008; even in this ultra-accommodative "helicopter money" environment gold spot only went from ~US$835 late 2008 to peak at ~US$1,895 in 2011. Between 2011 and 2019 gold spot has been hovering/channelling between US$1,100-1,350 despite QE and ZIRP being sustained. Only the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic and the associated widespread economic disruption precipitated the current price break-out beyond US$1,500. These observations would suggest gold bull runs do not occur merely in the presence of ultra-accommodative monetary policy, but require a trigger composing by one or more external factor(s), leading to market sentiment (fear>>everything else) thus inducing demand for the ultimate safe-haven asset (gold). How much fear would correspond to a world paying US$5,000 for an ounce of gold?
'gold price reaching $50,000 per ounce' About 15 years ago, during a years-long discussion of Global System in Slow-Motion Collapse, I was charged by a friend to make a concrete prediction. The one thing I'd put my head on the block for was: prices will fluctuate krazee krazee. Since then, oil and Bitcoin and the price of debt have experienced wild shifts. And it is now crystal clear that the krazee has just begun. [Great thread]
ET, I would be happy to bet you an ounce of gold that the price of gold reaches at least $10,000 per ounce sometime during this decade. But, going by your extreme anti precious metal analogy, I assume that you only have base metal coins in your stack.
Honestly, how can gold NOT see $5,000 within the next 5-10 years. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA climb to 50,000 or higher during the same time (in *most* years, the Dow has generally outperformed gold). Or the median price of a house increase by 50% or more. But at the same time, when the US Government approves a $3 trillion (or thereabouts) aid bill, everything goes up because the value of the dollar goes down. It's simply a case of more money being in supply trying to buy much the same basket of "goods".
