2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    It was not a quote from Dan Pena, but a conclusion.

    My take on:

    FOOD INDUSTRY:
    - food supply chain interruptions are causing small local food stores can go bankrupts by the tens of thousands
    - beer, alcohol sales went down, so did certain food types (while basic foods are going up)
    - coffee production is down (due to lockdowns), supply chain interruptions just add to that: how do you think this affects coffee shops?
    - the focus will be on basic foods, so many fancy restaurants will go bust
    - McDonald's, KFC, Burger King, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut are suffering tremendous losses (some smaller chains will go down the drain)
    - many restaurants were living out of tourism (especially in Europe), also catering firms etc.: they will suffer a low not with the downturn of tourism

    Yes, food will always be needed, but not all types of food, but basic food, which is already being overhoarded.
    Less staff are available, so less people work on producing food.
    Luxury eating, restaurants always go bust during crises. Let me take a guess: Hard Rock Cafe? I always found their pasta overpriced. I could make the exact same food at home for 20x less!
    Many people will lose their jobs in this industry.


    TOURISM:
    - the entire tourism industry is collapsing due to lockdowns, blocked flights (between the US and the rest of the world)
    - airlines: read about the trends, the news: Emirates strongly affected, FlyBe went defunct
    - flights will be much more expensive in the future (near future to distant future) and probably even less people will travel, airline fleets will be reduced
    - Boeing is being slammed (after the board software problems of 737-MAX, now Corona hits them: less orders
    - both Airbus, Boeing (not sure about Embraer and Bombardier) are getting airplane orders canceled by the hundreds! (airlines are canceling many orders!)
    - many airlines are reducing staff
    - hotels? (anyone can guess it's a terrible time for them)
    - Airbnb problems: people living out of renting apartments out are making losses (it was a bubble and it popped!)
    - everyone is saving and while people are losing their jobs, they will SAVE instead of traveling (at least Machu Picchu could be less crowded, but it may be far more expensive to visit right now)
    - splurge tourism will take a deep dive
    - countries thriving on tourism could crash economically (Malta, Spain...)
    - many people working in tourism are already losing their jobs (then: let's see the connection between tourism and food/HORECA specifically - it is easy to understand that the food industry will be slammed by the decline of tourism)

    Yes, some people will continue to travel (I am looking forward to being one of them), but not everyone. They will simply not be able to afford it.
    I expect much more expensive flights. Overall operating costs will go up, demand will be lower, but airline fleets will be smaller as well. I don't know how many low cost airlines will survive (depends on their business model).


    Watch how more and more cities turn into DETROITS and CARACASES around the world...

    The Greek-style crisis scenarios will be the "happier" cases.
     
    Ag bullet likes this.
  2. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    The Big Brother paying % on gold to know Who and How much gold the person have...
     
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  3. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes an interesting character, if unappealing. He is certainly sharp.
     
  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    PAPER "gold".

    It's like a wooden nickel.
    A water pistol.
    A soy hamburger sandwich.
    A paper towel.
    A wooden horse.
    A photo of the hypothetical love of your life.
    A cardboard house.
    A plastic poker chip, which takes place of real money.
     
  5. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Holy LORD the oil price!!
     
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  6. MC Silver

    MC Silver New Member

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    I can't look away. Below $5
     
  7. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It’s friken zero what does that mean lol
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020
  9. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    it means it's still over $1/L at the bowser
     
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  10. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Dan Pena says there's a lot more oil in the ground than people believe. Now the US and other great powers (but not only) are probably buying up oil with the buckeload. Preparing for war? I hope not. But that's what comes to my mind.

    Gold took another dip today: right now around 1,660 $. There are voices here on the forum saying that gold too could take a major dive.

     
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump will try to pump them up. There is no end to his devotion to socialism and all mighty power.
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    What do all the voices in your head say?
     
  14. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Have a quick look at this comparison.
    Start at 07:50 it will show the last significant crashes and how long they lasted. (We haven't started crashing yet) It's good for cross checking previous gold highs and lows in the same time periods.
     
  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Peter Schiff:
    Inflation will manifest in various ways




    Important to note:
    * The government is buying the power for the stimulus by "stealing" away people's purchase power.
    * Peter Schiff underlines: although the price of oil has gone down, if you look at the other products, you will see higher prices.


    Indeed, I notice various prices going up ("ridiculous" products): backpacks, tools, but also normally "cheap Chinese" products are now up to 10x more (the most simple products are more expensive), also pocket knives, ketchup, canned food, meat, but also wall paint prices have gone up.
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I listened a bit, didn't here any mention of gold though.
     
  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Could you please explain how paper gold is different to paper oil? :p
     
  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The same way a poker chip is different from a 1 oz Gold Buffalo coin.

    The same way soy is different from meat. :D
     
  19. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Nice story.
     
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  20. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You have to do some of your own study shiney. ;):D
     

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