GSR turning around soon?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by sgbuyer, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    I have this feeling that the GSR will be turning around soon. There's still some retail physical silver in LCS outside of the US, but they disappearing as the days pass by. In probably another 4 weeks, we might be seeing a strange situation in which paper silver is cheap, but no physical silver (not even 1000 oz bars) can be bought at less than 50% premium.

    Another point is more silver mines are located in the southern hemisphere which is moving into winter. And many are in South American countries which are very poor and can't handle the virus, other than locking down the entire country, similar to what India is doing, perhaps possibly until summer arrives.

    In the meantime, Europe and the US gets back to business by northern hemisphere summer, June/July, so we'll have a situation in which demand is rising while supply plunges.

    What do you guys think?
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
  2. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2019
    Messages:
    307
    Likes Received:
    383
    Trophy Points:
    63
    The GSR is actually the Greed/Safety Ratio.......The rush to safety..i.e. gold propels it higher...but then, when gold gets really expensive....greed takes over. Suddenly, everyone is after silver. Just like Kombi vans without the split front window eventually became expensive. The expectation that the price of one thing will influence the price of another.
     
    66rounds likes this.
  3. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2019
    Messages:
    377
    Likes Received:
    467
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Sydney
    The paper market seems to share some of the characteristics of a ponzi scheme from the look of it , COMEX is already starting to fail and if they have fiddled with gold contracts surely their greed did not stop there and silver will also be affected;

    https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/banks-cant-deliver-on-comex-gold-contracts/

    Also factor in that 25% of global silver mine production is/was already off line due to various reason, excluding WuFLu! So globally the market was already going to be running 7,000 tonnes short for 2020 before you start to add in other large miners winding down operations due to WuFLu forced shutdowns.

    What i have not been able to work out is how much global industrial demand will be affected by the shutdowns and slow downs. Silver is pretty critical to the medical, aerospace & electronics industries.

    On a side note the PGM family of metals have been classified as essential which explains why Platinum is creeping up quietly & where possible those primary miners are still operating albeit at a lower than normal capacity.

    Actual GSR, using the retail prices I am seeing is closer to something between 86:1 to 78:1.

    Paper prices no longer appear to mean much to anyone that is not at the top of the tree and their houses are looking very suspect the last few months.

    Please DYOR, I am very new to this area and these thoughts are my own, thus I am just sharing them.
     
    black5wan, 66rounds and STKR like this.
  4. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    Don't believe everything the spin doctors say.... it is a supply-chain issue, not a supply issue. Just like dunny rolls at the moment.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...challenges-amid-covid-19-shutdowns-2020-03-25
    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-...very-of-100-ounce-400-ounce-and-1kg-bars.html
     
    Holdfast, heartastack and Slimey like this.
  5. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2019
    Messages:
    307
    Likes Received:
    383
    Trophy Points:
    63
    It could become a very big problem. Silver is there but how to get it to the customers? Mine shut down, refineries shut down, postal services shut down, etc. Its like a dam building up which will eventually break when supply resumes.
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Agree, but it may take more than a year for the dam to be filled. The mines are located in places, e.g. South America, Indonesia, Africa, which would still be fighting virus long after the developed world, where the factories are located, get back to work. In the meantime, it would not be possible to find any sizeable amount of physical silver in a month’s time. If you’re a manufacturer who needs 100,000 oz of silver, good luck.
     
    STKR likes this.
  7. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,487
    Likes Received:
    2,846
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes! In this environment it would be likely to see an increase in industrial demand as big players like Sony and Apple seek to obtain more silver from their suppliers to guarantee production. This is speculation, of course. What isn't speculation is the unprecedented investor demand we're seeing at the moment and the shortages in physical supply to the market.

    For me, the question remains: is the current demand from investors enough to offset a slump in industrial demand (if any)?

    It would take approx. $6 billion USD of investor Demand to offset a major downturn in industrial demand annually. Considering the gold market is over $3 trillion USD annually, it's not difficult to see how quickly this could heat up for silver!
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Yes, all speculation only. As always, diversification is important and so is cash.

    Industrial demand is currently down but so is supply so it balances out. The issue is what happens if industrial demand recovers but supply is still down as developing and third world countries where most mines are located struggle with the virus?
     
    AshestoAshes and STKR like this.
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    GSR now 111. I don't think GSR has turned around though.
     
    66rounds likes this.
  10. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2019
    Messages:
    2,986
    Likes Received:
    3,385
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Unfortunately I feel that silver will always remain the leper brother to gold, never truly catching up
     
  11. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    3,935
    Likes Received:
    1,297
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Don't underestimate the number of people who don't give a rats arse about silver, where it's gold or nothing.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Silver is facing the same situation as oil - excessive mining in recent years resulting in oversupply.
     
  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    12,102
    Likes Received:
    3,877
    Trophy Points:
    113
    lets make a $5 silver dance moves
    similarly with an 8k Dow down moves
     
  14. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,064
    Likes Received:
    3,292
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Yes I agree. Silver is an industrial metal, whereas the GSR leads one to support the idea that silver is money along with gold, but they can't be compared. The traditional 16:1 ratio is last century. Silver is so cheap because industry wants it that way.

    So as economies tumble so do commodities and that now includes silver.
     
    Holdfast, wrcmad and sgbuyer like this.
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Yes, but I pointed out on my first post that it is possible that factories in China and the developed world may be operating again by July/August while the mines are located in places that will still be plagued by the malady for months to come.
     
    JulieW likes this.
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    12,102
    Likes Received:
    3,877
    Trophy Points:
    113
    production centers reopened but the markets are closing
     
  17. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2019
    Messages:
    1,191
    Likes Received:
    1,346
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Qld
    Id be keeping an eye on the whole China thing, They have pissed off allot of countries with this virus thing, makes me wonder for how much more of an apatite there is for China and reliance on them.
    The longer this virus debacle goes on for Its becoming more and more obvious how much of a distrust the world seems to have towards China.
    I think we might see more companies moving away from China and their manufacturing, If china is currently back manufacturing and at the same time no one is buying the shit they are making you have to wonder how much that will effect Commodity prices.

    Now im not entirely sure why gold hasnt gone down tobe honest, the price of gold is also effected greatly by manufacturing,
    your talking 20% of gold used for industry/manufacturing and you would think jewelry sales would be down a fair amount. so there is definitely some funny business going on with silver and gold prices.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  18. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,649
    Likes Received:
    3,019
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Until silver goes mainstream I wouldn’t pay a premium for it. And if so I would be selling at said premium. Silver bugs creating a tp style ‘shortage’ is just as silly as that one
     
  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    3,892
    Likes Received:
    1,963
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    I don't think China has acted differently in dealing with this virus, in fact, there had been improvements from the SARS period. It's just that Western MSM in cahoots with corporations that had profited tremendously from the trade with China, especially those in Europe, has been painting a false picture of China.

    Every Chinese knows that figures are just for fun, you need to x10 or x100 to get the actual number. The same with Indonesia, Indonesia probably has tens of thousands of cases in by the middle of March, but officially there are none. No one questions the Indonesian government figures because everyone knows the Indonesian government can't reveal any figures to prevent panic, given the historical riots in the past where hundreds or thousands are killed for trivial reasons.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    12,102
    Likes Received:
    3,877
    Trophy Points:
    113
    better not to speculate with such numbers without any proof or facts., is just be dismissed as speculation. nothing more.
     

Share This Page