Time to back up the truck!

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Buffaloknight, Apr 3, 2018.

  1. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    In recent weeks, there has been a bullish disconnect between silver's managed money net long position and silver futures prices. On March 20, 2018, silver's managed money net long position reached a record low of -35,172 contracts and has since rebounded slightly to -33,853 contracts as of March 27, 2018. Silver's managed money net long position will soon bounce back into positive territory.

    For silver to currently be priced at $16.63 per oz despite a negative managed money net long position of -33,853 contracts is extremely bullish for the price of silver. In July 2017 and December 2017, silver bottomed at lower prices of $15.37 per oz and $15.58 per oz, respectively. This is despite silver having smaller negative managed money net long positions of -6,455 in July 2017 and -13,976 in December 2017.

    When silver's negative managed money net long position reached a record -35,172 on March 20, 2018, it should have resulted in silver falling to levels well below $15 per oz. Considering that silver has remained north of $16 per oz, it shows that silver futures are poised to explode higher as shorts get squeezed in the weeks ahead. Time to back up the truck! Buy paper silver! Silver will rise significantly from now to end of June 2018.

    silvermanagedmoneynetlongposition.jpg
     
  2. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    Silver rallies when negative net longs (or shorts) start to reverse.

    On July 18, 2017, silver futures to rally from $15.37 per oz up to $18.03 per oz, for a 9-week gain of 17.3%!

    On December 19, 2017, silver futures to rally from $15.58 per oz up to $17.55 per oz, for a 6-week gain of 12.64%!

    Two years earlier on December 15, 2015 silver futures to rally from $13.74 per oz up to $16.02 per oz, for a 13-week gain of 16.59%!
     
  3. sammy

    sammy Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I hope you’re right ... but this kind of analysis hasn’t been working for the past few years.
     
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  4. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    Did he write truck........Ooops.....I thought he meant hearse!!!
     
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  5. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    That means this kind of analysis doesn't work......
     
  6. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Don't treat Silver as an investment. Hold for security, but it will never meaningfully appreciate.
     
  7. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  8. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Don't fall for the BS..... When seeing articles like this prices are going south....
     
  9. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    I am disappointed in the lack of intelligent analysis to be found on this forum.

    On April 4th I announced it was time to back up the truck, silver was US 16.30 per ounce.
    I personally took out a long position in SLV CFDs.
    Today only 16 days later silver is now US 17.26 per ounce.
    A 5.8% return in 16 days! If history is a guide, the short squeeze has further to run.

    This is not reading tea leaves. It is a simple matter of supply and demand. The short selling had reached an extreme level, institutional shorts which have to be covered at some stage.

    If you do not understand the analysis, refrain from commenting.
     
  10. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Good time to sell quick.
     
  11. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    Silver will very likely continue to appreciate for the next 3 weeks, so wait.
     
  12. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    So sell after 3 weeks?
     
  13. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Have you looked deeper as to why there are so many long contracts?
     
  14. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    Thank you. I like your question.

    Short answer is no. There are so many participants in the silver market at the moment. Although I think it is Investment banks with trend following strategies that will have the biggest impact on the silver price.
     
  15. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    How much money did you invest in this call? I'm guessing not nearly everything you had.
    If you were so sure of this call like it was an absolute certainty, why didn't you bet everything?
     
  16. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I reckon shorts are due to all copper mines expanding to keep up with demand.
    Every copper mine that can seem to be expanding, which mean glut of silver byproduct silver.
    However prices are going up not down
     
  17. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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  18. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    I like to use "paper silver net longs" positions as a leading indicator. The correlation is good at 0.65.
    Can anyone recommend any other useful indicators?
    I could calculate the correlation coefficient. With multiple indicators a better model could be created.

    silvermanagedmoneynetlongsapril18th2018.jpg
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2018
  19. Buffaloknight

    Buffaloknight Active Member

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    I am interested in discussing short/medium term predictive models. It does not appear to be your area of expertise.
     
  20. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    You predicted the one in green, congrats.
    What about the ones in red? Did your analysis technique predict those too?


    [​IMG]
     

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    Last edited: Apr 20, 2018

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