Gold - 6 Year Downtrend Broken

Discussion in 'Gold' started by BuggedOut, Jun 7, 2017.

  1. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    in the meantime gold stocks are still as flat as a pancake :(
     
  2. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    This morning on news all markets were down due to Trump/Kimmy battle.

    Gold was only commodity that was rising.
     
  3. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No, I don't think so. Textbook head and shoulders are normally more rounded and the neckline is level.

    quasimodo1.jpg
     
  4. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Is gold about to break above U.S.$1,300 tonight?

    It would be enough to make me want to sing.


    Put A Light In The Window – By The Four Lads


     

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  5. junlurk_4

    junlurk_4 New Member

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    So does this mean that gold is going down for good? but surely there is no gold and silver shortage... try morgan report for gold and silver updates <link removed>
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 12, 2017
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I thought this was a confidence restoring chart for those who didn't see it.
    I like long term charts and this one uses quarterly (3 mthly) periods. Also moving monthly averages of 6 and 10 which I would not have considered and have arguably been very predictive over the very long term. He certainly makes some good arguments for an interrupted secular bull market now resumed. Remember the excruciating gfc correction in gold? Looks like a blip on this chart compared to the crushing post 2011 era. Now we've had the magic moving average cross in the Dec 2016 quarter which is more meaningful than the classic 'golden cross' (50 dma x 200 dma)

    GOLD QTRLY.png

    • Each bar on this chart represents one full quarter (3 months) of trading. Supplementing this chart is the 6-Quarter and 10-Quarter moving averages. These averages have been very excellent indicators of trend going back even further than this chart shows. There have been three crossovers of the 6 and the 10 quarter averages going back 20 years, indicated by the blue arrows. The most recent crossover occurred in the fourth quarter of 2016. This is supportive of a bullish thesis and suggests the primary uptrend that started in 2001 has resumed in earnest. Another factor that lends clout to the 6 quarter moving average is that even during the 2008 financial crash there was not a quarterly close below it, despite it being temporarily breached.
    • The slow stochastic oscillator at the bottom of the chart is not only rising but the faster moving average within it (the black line) is accelerating. The move is also being confirmed by the quarterly RSI breaking above the key 50 level. MACD has yet to confirm the move but looks like it will later in 2017 or the first have of 2018. MACD is a lagging indicator.
    • An accepted technical principle of volume analysis is that volume rises during bull markets and also rises during bear markets. Volume diminishes during corrections and consolidations. It's hard to notice when the focus is daily and weekly charts, but on a quarterly basis the move down from 2012-2015, from a volume perspective, has the DNA of a bull market correction. Volume has resumed its uptrend since the fourth quarter of 2015, supporting the bullish thesis.
    https://www.vanaurumtech.com/single...lling-Charts-Supporting-a-Bullish-Gold-Thesis
     
    samoth25 likes this.

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