This is pretty big from a technical perspective. Gold has broken out of a well established downtrend with five touch points. I think it is something to get excited about :- A couple of very near term surprises that could really solidify a major breakout would be :- 1. The FED deciding not to raise interest rates this month due to poor data. 2. A surprise victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the UK (he is a socialist, but also anti-establishment) 3. Comey testimony that could lead toward solid moves to impeach Trump for obstruction
We almost have #2 above, with the conservatives now unable to form a majority government. This is a bit of a surprise, but gold is sleeping through it. Reckon a hung parliament means political instability in UK and more uncertainty ahead....that should feed into gold. But then again, if it kills off Brexit then maybe the market will be happy about it and gold takes a hit.
Market is pricing in a 100% chance of rate hike by the FED this week. All eyes and ears will be on the forward guidance. If we get a whiff that the rate of hikes will slow down due to a slowing economy then I reckon we are on for testing $1300 USD this week. A break of that level would be great to see.
Agreed. Market didn't like the FEDs forward guidance and the sharp move up and down in the gold price this week is not encouraging from a technical perspective. I sold one of my 3 gold mining shares today. Maybe we'll get through $1300 next time
I sold SLR yesterday because it was the higher volatility play and it had been on a run. Then I sold RRL early today because it was defying gravity and the drop of gold through $1260 makes me doubt the short term momentum (RRL then reversed just before noon) I still hold NCM. I'll possibly buy the other two back next week once I've re-assessed things and come up with revised expectations. One thing I've learnt over the years is when you're wrong, don't cling to the trades you made based on the wrong assumptions you made. That said I am still a gold bull in the long term picture
It's tortoise and hare then, and I'm not predicting who'll win. RRL is one I just want to accumulate, you would have read of the increase in reserves recently that will replace all of the ounces mined in fy17 - from just one maiden project, Tooheys Well, 366,000 ounces of new reserves. Same with Northern Star (NST) of course - i hope for corrections in both.
I really like NST, but I'm not chasing it at the higher prices. It looked overbought last time I was shopping. I actually don't focus too much on specific company fundamentals. I'm looking at the Gold macro and using technicals to cherry pick from companies I am familiar with and trust. EVN is the other one I like to play with
I'm buying again today. Gold may be finding some support around the 200 DMA. Tough decision between EVN and NST. Both charts look the same and are around 10% off the highs of 7-Jun, which was only 2 weeks ago!
Unfortunately I think the price run in gold this week is more about Trump and North Korea threatening war. We will definitely get follow through if shots are fired but that's not something I can wish for. The last 2 months (since I created this thread) have sure gone quick. I have been surprised over that time gold hasn't done better considering how weak the USD has been recently. Technicals will be starting to look good again soon. I half expect another Friday smackdown? Still holding though
I hope i don't wake up to another smack down Saturday morning. But so far it's looking good. Regarding all this North Korea stuff I'm not paying to much attention to it. All hot air.
Massive VIX spike overnite and gold powering through that trend line again.... PPT will be hovering over that button as I write this. It's not just about gold, but the bull run in stocks could be under threat.
