Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold and silver are wealth preservation, not generally creation. It is however under valued vs other assets eg property. We will see on the other side of this upcoming financial crisis that's about to tear through the world
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Price has always been one measure of value only.

    From: https://www.silverstackers.com/foru...-the-crypto-bubble.87398/page-95#post-1241986

    Let's see how many of the qualities we assign to cryptocurrencies that have actually failed.

    Why we assign value to cryptocurrencies:
    1. Scarce - Hasn't failed.
    2. Secure (cannot be counterfeited) - Hasn't failed
    3. Decentralised - Hasn't failed
    4. Fungible - Hasn't failed
    5. Non-consumable - Hasn't failed
    6. Portable - Hasn't failed
    7. Durable - Hasn't failed
    8. Divisible - Hasn't failed
    9. Programmable - Hasn't failed
    10. Verifiable - Hasn't failed
    11. Established history - Hasn't failed
    12. Censorship resistant - Hasn't failed
    13. Privacy - hasn't failed
    14. Income producing - Severely stressed

    So 1 out 14, and that's largely because either a. much of the income being earned is in the Defi arena which exposes users to greater risk of centralisation, liquidation, exposure to lending etc or b. the price downturn affects those earning income running validator nodes/mining etc though the rewards earned may not have changed significantly
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    There are other threads on this forum elsewhere examining the fallacy that gold/silver are wealth preservers.
     
  4. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    Link? I'm terrible with searching through forums
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I was hoping that no one would ask that, now I'll have to go and look for it. :confused::p:D
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  7. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oh I see, your confusing the idea of inflation with total devaluation.
    See if a government loses control of its currency it demonotises it. Eg Germany 1930 etc then issues "new " dollars/marks/cash etc
    Governments can also take you money from an account easily or just revalue it in new dollars.
    In a time of conflation businesses wind down, value changes and things get rocky.
    But 1 thing is certain, on the otherside of the incident that caused the chaos. People will want gold and silver again and whatever unit of trade they are using then, it will become easy to translate its real value.
    Every single war/conflict/crisis to date has proven this.
    This is wealth preservation
     
  8. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    On the other side of said incident/conflict your usb stick will be most value if it has porn on it. Not some imaginary currency that no one is trading anymore
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    No, if an asset can't maintain the same rate of purchasing power as the rate of inflation then it is not a wealth preserver.
     
  10. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I bet all the Jews who fled with pockets full of gold and silver, not mark notes would disagree with you.
    Plus let's look at the round 50, minted in1966 it could get you a big mac meal. A 1969 cuni 50 would also get you one.
    Now a round 50 will still get you a big mac meal in its silver, the cuni 69 will get you an icecream cone
     
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  11. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Life preservation was what they were more concerned with. The painting hanging on my wall is testament to that, sold to my grandfather in Poland in the late 1930's by a jewish family escaping the Nazis, they were no doubt happy to take less than market value for it.It was likely the same for their gold/silver.

    And at the ATH of silver in 1980 (inflation adjusted) a round 50 was worth USD42. Now it's not.
     
  13. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    See again your missing the point. That didn't preserve their wealth till after the war even though it could be argued that its value post conflict was recognised.
    It's like Japanese invasion money, I have hundreds of thousands in face value used durthe war. It's has next to no value now much less face
    But it's equivalent in gold would still have purchasing power.
    An example of this being maintained in real terms was given being the big mac. Your choosing to use average inflationary figures that are purely academic over a long period.
    Funny thing is your idea of value is an asset that if purchased post 15th Dec 2020 would have lost you money, much less kept up with inflation
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    No mate, you just made a fallacious comment common to the goldbug mantra that precious metals are a wealth preserver when the data clearly shows they're not.

    You mean like this chart showing gold's inflation adjusted value? Some pretty mixed times for goldbugs below.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And you continue to talk crypto up like it's a better wealth preserver. This thread is dedicated to discussing the theory that your in fact wrong, people use the examples of gold and silver because, shock horror, this is a precious metal forum.
    Now argue as much as you want about inflation value/ buying power etc but the value of half a kilo of gold will be 100% more than bit coin when bitcoin fails.
    That's my opinion
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm continuing to talk crypto up as a better wealth preserver? No I'm not! There's two things it's notoriously shit at, transactions of exchange in the mainstream economy and wealth preservation in the short term.

    It was actually my wish not to make any comparisons between it and gold but your comment that gold is a wealth preserver required a rebuttal.

    Thanks. Just expect that every time you say something along the lines that gold is a wealth preserver you'll likely get some push back on that thesis.
     
  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Metals have done great for me.
    Im up at least 50 percent on my gold and 100+ percent on my silver since i started stacking back in the early teens.

    Its been a great hedge for me but depends alot on when you are buying.
     
  18. Shlomo Goldberg

    Shlomo Goldberg Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I love gold so much I named one of my daughters Golda.
     
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  19. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    She must be stoked.

    Dad was calling himself The Phantom long before I bought Fantom.
     
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  20. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And as history has proven time and time again those who are wealthy with gold maintain that wealth throughout any conflict or major incident eg stock market crash, war etc
     

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