Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Tether is only 3% backed by cash per Tether. The rest of the backing is unknown.

    USDC attests to having approved investments backing them but no official audit has been done.

    Maybe this is why regulation is coming?

    I suspect Bitcoin price will go down on when regulation arrives.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The price of BTC goes up and down with every piece of FUD or FOMO published regardless of whether the news is grounded in fact or not.

    What specific regulations are you expecting?
     
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  3. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Stablecoins should have be audited if they claim to be backed by reserves. None of the stablecoins have provided a recent audit.

    Seems suspicious to not want to be audited and prove that your stablecoin is legit.
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That's one of the regulations you're expecting? Fair enough, banks and other institutions do need clarity around the risks involved before they can pile in to the market.

    In the event that Circle and Tether et al are audited as part of a new regulatory framework, if the audits agree with the existing published independent accountant's reports then it would likely push the price of crypto assets higher. Of course, if the audits find that Tether and Circle have been fraudulent, then it would have a negative impact on the market until the issue is resolved.

    Any other specific regulations?

    Cross border transactions is an interesting one. Particularly as it relates to the USD. Any comment on that?
     
  5. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    No. That is my only requirement.

    Any cross-border transaction will be monitored somehow by somebody in order to catch tax dodgers.
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The use of USD denominated stablecoins for cross border transactions poses a perceived* threat to USD dominance in the world. This is what Powell is most concerned with.

    *edited
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2021
  7. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    USD dominance is going down regardless due to debt. But I agree with you.
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  9. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Per your chart the US bonds are being monetized by the Fed. It wouldn't take much for foreign countries to dump US debt like Russia already has.
     
  10. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    I would say dumping US debt is an act of financial aggression, and would never be comtemplated by US allies. Russia has done so, but they aren't allies, and China dumping would be an act of war. I think China, instead, just don't roll over their US debt, but I could be mistaken
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Remittances from The Fed to Treasury fall far short of the debt issued.

    Russia's holdings were pretty small compared to worldwide standards, the sale made no difference at all to the bond market. The same would apply to most countries if for some strange reason they decided to sell their US Treasury bonds.

    Now if China or Japan tried it, it would create an avalanche of ever lower prices, that's if they could find enough buyers, the end result being that these countries would carry huge losses.
     
  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Upon themselves.

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/04/can-china-dump-us-treasuries-live/
     
  13. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Tell that to the Federal Reserve.

    Nobody likes an audit.
     
  14. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    So what's your point? Or are you just repeating yourself again?

    Or I'll put it another way - how does this add to the discussion?
     
  16. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    This is from today. It adds to the discussion because they did not answer the questions on the interview. They said any audit would be months away.

    Do you defend their answers?
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I’m happy with their answers:

    1. the market obviously trusts them because it’s the 3rd biggest crypto, and

    2. like a gazillion other private companies they have a policy of privacy around their commercial partnerships
     
  18. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    If they are the third largest crypto because of fraud then that is a problem. They claim they are for transparency but it does not appear so by their actions.

    To claim privacy to escape an audit is suspicious.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Which is why they said the market has spoken and obviously trusts them otherwise they wouldn’t have grown to become the 3rd largest crypto.



    Not transparent enough for you and other critics. Plenty transparent for the holders of the $62 odd billion on the market.
     
  20. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Active Member Silver Stacker

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    How can the market make a proper decision without a true accounting of their reserves. Do you think the investors in Enron and Madoff's fund knew what they were getting into before the truth came out?
     

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