Possible? I can see it going under $16 easily where it's spent a fair chunk of time in the last 3 years.
If it drops I will definitely stop buying gold and switch to silver. I am hoping this week will be a sign of what's to come. We've had metals rocket and then plummet over the course of five days. It has been a fun ride but I'm looking for some signs of stability.
I had been wishing for something like this. Others have suggested a drop is possible to $14 or thereabouts. If I look at 2008-2009 it certainly seems possible. Everything is being liquidated to cash so most things will go down for a while until people start looking for a place to put their cash. So far we have no clear picture how long this event will last. Certainly it will be many more months imho and likely into next year. The level of impact is highly speculative since we only see China. Italy has seen softer actions but look at Venice - it is dead currently. If what is happening now expands then this will be a very big hit to supply chains globally, tourism will suffer terribly, industry will collapse in some sectors, bad debt will explode and many businesses will go belly up. Altogether a tough picture. That does not bode well for silver as an industrial material. So how long this lasts and how wide spread it goes are the million dollar questions.
WXY pattern 15.80 should hold and target 26 catalyst would be weak USD , usd/jpy down for extra confirmation ( Euro for currency and PM to rally hard)
Something interesting to keep a tabs on is unemployment and the price of silver. When the price of silver peaked in the 80s and in 2011 unemployment in the US was around 10%. Not sure if that will happen again but it has happened twice before.
True - the price of silver and gold fell in the GFC. The real safe haven was 3 month maturity T-bills in the US. The rates for these even went slightly negative. That is, it was better to take a tiny loss than to take a bigger loss. 3 years later silver, along with other commodities, rocketed, then slowly fell to where it is now. It is reasonable to think silver might fall again like it did. The reasons and the fix are partially different this time
The widespread fears of the unknown actually remind me most of the month following Sept 11, 2001. Not really knowing whether to buy, sell or hold, and a still quite frothy market slowly bled out. Also reminded by my better half this morning that the 2009 swine flu was at least 50x more deadly than the 2019 coronavirus. 187 swine flu deaths in Australia, but there wasn't really social media in 2009 to whip up fears.
One would think that high unemployment would be positively correlated to less manufacturing and industrial consumption of silver. Could it be that the industrial shortfall is picked up by investors and the population who get priced out of gold when it goes on an upward tear?
Perhaps. Alternatively if corona virus hit really had and many younger people died then unemployment might go down.
