I have been accumulated gold for the last few years and seeing the recent gains I got excited about the future of gold so I decided to look at it from the technical point of view. I am not an expert but I have been using charts for the last 30 years. They not always work nor I claim that I can predict anything. I look at the monthly chart and taking the low point of gold in 2000 to the top around $1921 in 2011, gold made the retracement of Fibonacci number of 50% to around $1046 in 2015. Since then it has been in consolidation state, which is good as it creates the base, from which it can spring out to the higher levels. The recent gains are nothing yet as they are only in the consolidation state. I would like to see the price of gold well over $1400 to get really excited. If we can go through that the next stop, we might as well see the highs of the year 2011. Of course, there are few stops like the lows of 2012 of $1527, which is usually the strong resistant line. The chart of gold is looking very good. The recent gains look impressive but if my prediction comes true and it will clear the $1400 level, we will see much better gains in gold. Mind you that I analyzed the monthly market so it will take much longer, but the best gains are in front of us. It’s my 2 cents or in Polish my 2 groszy.
I pretty much agree with your analysis as to where the gold price is going Zloty. Although, I am not a great believer in the Fibonacci sequence it's self in regards to the price of gold, due to the fact that the gold price is so manipulated by the paper futures contracts. For what ever reason, the powers that be have made the US $1360 gold price the line in the sand, which they have ruthlessly defended on at least 5 occasions in the past 5 years or so. So I am keenly watching the current gold price action to see if they will be successful again or if they are finally being overwhelmed this time. If we can get over this resistance level, then I think that the price will go fairly quickly to $1600-$1700 US possibly within 6 months time, which will be about $2500 per ounce for us Aussies. So exciting times ahead (hopefully) for those with a sizable percentage of their assets in the yellow metal.
Yes, I agree with you Prospect. The line in the sand of $1360, for whatever reason has been established, is the strong resistance line. It will take the significant force to go through that. But once we go through that, and if we can go through that I think we can go much higher. If we want to go so much in the future and it might be only wishful thinking the Fibonacci number gives me the goal of A$2400. But I think it won’t be smooth sailing. After the 5-year base, the initial rise might be a bit slow. There are too many doubters, which will sell their holdings on any rise. I think the biggest rise will be much later. I cannot believe I write that as it is so much in the future. But the chart itself is intriguing to me. It reminds me of the chart of Westpac, which created a similar base in ’90s. I bought Westpac that time for around $2.80 and sold it last year when I thought communism party gonna take over. Now, what would be a good strategy if the price of gold starts to going up? Up till now, I used Newcrest (NCM) as the proxy for the gold. Not mention the physical gold I hold. No doubt that NCM will go much higher with the rising price of gold. But at the moment I wouldn’t buy any gold stock. I would wait either for the correction or be ready to buy for the even higher price. Again that’s my 2 groszy.
So, do you believe the price is controlled by manipulation? Or do you believe in market dynamic technical resistance levels that can be broken? Seems like you are using manipulation as an excuse for not "being right yet" while price hasn't broken? If price breaks through resistance, no doubt you will claim the prediction as a clever "told-you-so"? It's a win-win for your ego?
Hi Wrcmad, very good question, I know is not related to my post but I would like to stress that I base my analyses on the technical point of view. But I think they both come together sometimes. I remember the chart of Adelaide Advertiser coming up to the price of $5 number of times in the ’90s. It was like many years up to $5 and then down again. Suddenly it’s gone through $5 and soon after the takeover was announced. So what I am saying is that the chart will give you some advantage in some situation. I don’t look at the charts only. Fundamentals are as well as important as the charts. If I like to say one sentence about the charts it would be: I don’t believe in charts but it gave me too much money to ignore it.
Yes, I believe that the gold price is controlled by manipulation! Go and read my post in the Gold Manipulation thread, as I can't be bothered saying it all here again. But, I also believe that the Comex paper dumps are having less of an impact on the gold price with each subsequent smackdown, which gives me hope for a brighter gold future. And I don't need to come here to stroke my ego. I will leave that for you to enjoy.
Possible (abcDe) triangle pattern followed by Elliott wave and ( Fibonacci) I see this move could be D into 1360-1380 then one more retest to E=1220-1180 (1286 is major level for more confirmation) I still see massive short interest between 1360-1380 also daily wave count marks as possible topping wave 5 . Silver & platinum is weaker ( possible ending diagonal into new low) 12.50 & 680 ish US-Dollar COT reading & euro/usd could go one more push DXY(us dollar) towards 99.70-100 for final blow off top. Expecting index push to new high if this confirm. **This is just my technical idea reading the information off COT & chart price action. Not trade recommendation **
Finally, I pulled the trigger and bought some future contracts on gold. Small position, which I intend to keep for a week or so if the price doesn’t trigger my stop loss. I might add up if the price goes in the right direction. I would like to see the price going over $1400 before I get really excited. But I am excited by the price of gold. Things are happening. Like I said I used NCM as my proxy for gold. Now I used futures. Any recommendations?
