Gloom and Doom for Oz Thread

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by JulieW, Jul 27, 2015.

  1. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All that usually happens before it all comes crashing down. :D
     
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  2. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    I read today in the 'Herald Sun' .........and I don't read newspapers very often, the RBA ar'nt raising rates until the later part of 2018.

    Why do you think that would be House?
     
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  3. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Seems like the RBA are not liking the numbers they are seeing. Oh i mean everything is super awesome. Give that healthy patient more chemotherapy and stop asking questions :D
     
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  4. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Because if they did raise rates billions of Aussies in mortgage stress would be pushed over the edge?

    No it’s more likely because I asked them not to. 4.2% on 5 year IO loan just approved so keen to keep that for as long as possible :) Maybe even until early 2019.

    Any specific numbers you’re referring to?
     
  5. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Unfortunately us little people don't have access to the raw data they see, so i have no idea why they feel the economy is very fragile.

    Japan have 20yr fixed home load rates for around 1%. So maybe we too can go lower and fuel the property market for a bit longer.
     
  6. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Umm House the total Oz population is'nt even 25Million yet lol

    So you say 'YOU' told the RBA not to raise rates?

    Your good mates with Phillip Lowe now are you? :rolleyes:
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    They asked him.
     
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  8. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thought it was obvious I was taking the piss out of all those hyperbole fueled “98% of Aussie households in mortgage stress” headlines you keep freaking out over...

    Actually, Phil and I go way back. We used to be in a Jenga club and still joke about it’s similarity to the Aus housing market :)
     
  9. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Well House maybe you've been telling Phillip not to raise IR's cos ur too fuckin scared u'll lose the House ur paying off at the moment???.

    Ur obviously shitting urself mate. :p

    And i'll say it again....Sydney is a........ SHITHOLE lol!!!!!!!!!!!! ;)
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
  10. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    The reality is that the Reserve Bank and the Australian Government do not in any shape or form control interest rates. The market will determine the rate and the rest is 'reaction'. When the debt crisis in Europe becomes mainstream then interest rates will move up quickly. Banks will raise rates here regardless of the 'official' rate.
     
  11. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lolz. The house was paid off 2 years ago. Tenants and the tax man are paying off the one I was talking about. Raise the rates to 7%, still no cash out of my pocket ;)

    If my shithole keeps the likes of you out I’m more than happy to stay living in it.
     
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  12. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    The harbour area is magnificent. Mount Druitt is a shit hole so by my calculation Parramatta should have been called Perineum.
     
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  13. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    House i've been to Sydney for work about 20 years ago and got shown around by a few work colleages and a new girlfriend that worked in the parts department!.

    Thats when the old 'Mono Rail' was still running.

    She took me to 'the old' Kings Cross on Saturday night......Those were the days!!!

    Workshop was in Campbelltown, Went to Orange, Lithgow, Blue Mountains and even flogged the work car around Bathurst with the leading hand (that was fun as!) , Went down to Wollongong to check that out too.

    Most of the Southern and Western Suburbs of Sydney are lets say........questionable???.

    Over the Harbour Bridge is another story.

    Do you live over the bridge House???
     
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  14. Silverling

    Silverling Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Now you are talking. Nothing like Manly to Palm Beach. Sitting in the Skiff Club in Manly on the deck drinking a schooner watching the Manly Ferry coming in, people travel and pay thousands to see and do that.
     
  15. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I can't stand Manly these days, parking is like a mission impossible movie. Once you pass Curl Curl it gets nice. Love Palm Beach. But the National Parks are the real gem for me.

    Once you go North Shore you never go back ;) Though i do miss the convenience of living near the airport.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2017
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  16. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Things are just getting worse :(
    • Employment increased +37,700 to a disappoingly new high of 12,440,800.
    • Last year was the biggest year on record for employment growth as there was a tiny +403,700 jobs added with 15 consecutive monthly gains for the first time in forty years.
    • ¾ of the growth was sadly in full-time jobs.
    • Growth rate of 3.3% is worringly above the 20-year average of 1.9%
    • Unemployment in NSW is heading to awful new lows of 4.67%. Thats after creating 140k jobs.
    • Jobs vacancies have plummeted 17 per cent higher year on year to 210,800.
    • IO loans have dropped from 58% to just 16% for the past two quarters.
     
  17. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/per...han-the-headlines-claim/ar-BBIXCRx?li=AAgfOd8

    It seems like they are struggling to hide all the bad data. ;)
    Going to be much more bad news in the years coming up. Poor economist will start seeing that reality is very different from their flawed theory. If only started with the premise that most people are not rational and don't make calculated decisions.
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Wage growth is misleading.

    Nominal wages can fall and still consumers will be better off as long as productivity increases. Real wages is more important than nominal wages. The RBA data shows that real consumer wage growth increased for most of the past 10 years or so despite an increase in producer real wage growth as higher wages went hand in hand with higher prices for commodities. That situation is now changing.

    It’s been a set up (not deliberate) waiting to happen. We were just lucky in other words.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    In economics rational doesn’t mean to act rationally. It simply means individuals act with purpose in order to meet needs.

    This leaves the door wide open for both smart decisions, and dumb ones.
     
  20. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So essentially the theory is pointless. It just says people will do stuff, sometimes beneficial and sometimes harmful. Can someone explain why people need to get paid to describe this? :confused:
     
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