Some interesting comments i am finding dredging through old threads

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Gullintanni, Mar 4, 2017.

  1. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Anyone here met someone in this boat?
    07/05/2011

    "I just started to research into investing for the first time early this year(im 22 years old). I watched silver slowly climb and waited to buy a dip, but it continued climbing. I didn't want to regret not buying, so I got 2 monster boxes at 41.xx spot. I think it is a matter of "when" not "if" the price will climb to 50 again. I'm in the red, but I don't regret my investment. It's shiny and heavy, and way more satisfying to own than a stack of fiat ha ha"

    EDIT:date
     
  2. placeholderz

    placeholderz New Member

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    The trendline of the last 5 years looks very similar to 1980-1984 from which prices stayed flat for the next decade.

    [​IMG]
    goldprice.org

    But they only stayed flat because Saudi Arabia agreed to the petrodollar.

    I think the long term trend will still reward stackers who bought in 2011 as the petrodollar is dead and, despite the US capable of meeting their domestic demand with fracked oil, 20 trillion in unfunded liabilities and entitlements are due by 2025, which is not far away.

    [youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=GEwuGHFF7qE[/youtube]


    2011 stackers were early to buy in, yes. But they won't suffer the stagnant prices of the 1980s.
     
  3. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Hiya Placeholderz.
    I hope for their sake you are right , but i fear it may be to late.
    Many i know personally that bought in then have sold for the loss and just a few have stayed in pm's but they now buy and sell in the same manner as i do so they are not holding stuff for long unless it is free (ish).
    It just blows me away looking at how much hype there was in 2011 and the few that sent out the warning were shot down.
    I would love to post the forum name of one particular fella who was posting all the way up and down because he was SPOT ON.
    He was buying large all the way upto $29 and then sold in 2 lots at $46 and $48 but was getting $50+ at that time.
    He no longer posts as he was smashed by all the forum members for his luck/skill (not me by the way) and put his money into stocks.
    I know it sounds like a fairy tale but all his post are dated and i certainly believe the stuff he wrote.
    Just a shame that all the haters come down on him so hard when he said the run was over and they should get out while they were in the black.
    They forum bulls would feed each other with tales of THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT and THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED and all that other BS to support their flawed views.
     
  4. fscked

    fscked Member

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    A great thread for reflection, thanks for posting it all. Always happy to read more if you find some gems.

    I remember hearing all the hype about gold and silver, potential $10,000 Gold and $1,000 Silver was being shouted about. How could we possibly be wrong?!
    I was a poor student at the time and didn't buy anything, luckily. But, a seed was sown and I've been interested ever since. I've tracked the price since 2009 and have watched and read all about it.

    I decided to buy in last year at $14USD and I've been slowly adding bit to my stack ever since. There is a great lesson in this thread, not just about investing (why to most people buy at the top and sell at the bottom) but also about herd mentality and why it's important to buck the trends.
     
  5. PrettyPrettyShinyShiny

    PrettyPrettyShinyShiny Well-Known Member

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    I concur. A heard mentality even amongst those who are "aware".

    Last year I was stacking almost monthly, but I've decided to wait for another significant downturn. I'm more conservative in what I expect movements to be like. I think it's not unreasonable to expect silver to dip below $15 again this year, possibly lower. I'll just save my money until another drop comes-- even if it happens in 2018 or beyond.

    Keeping a watchful eye on the sales thread is a good indication of what people think is happening. If lots of relative newbies are selling, you could probably expect a further price drop. And we all know when the buyers show their faces... When the price is already "to the moon".

    PPSS


    For what it's worth, I think I've posted some pretty idiotic claims based on YouTube video research expecting more from less. You just get on with it.
     
  6. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    That is a good honest reply. We have all posted idiotic comments at some point in time. If we all look back, we will undoubtably find contradictions in our own posts over a period of time.
     
  7. placeholderz

    placeholderz New Member

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    I've only been a goldbug in the last 2 years and started stacking silver in the last month. I have 6 ounces of gold and 20 ounces of silver. I have invested some of my super in some juniors at around the peak of August last year, which is about the worst month to invest as things have gone down significantly since then. I have dollar-cost averaged in the last few months to smooth out the losses from the peak.

    Still, I will stick to my convictions despite the wrong timing in the short term. I can see that I am similar to many of the gold and silver bugs who went FOMO (fear of missing out) around 2011. I became a gold bug at about the worst time of the "dead cat bounce" of mid 2016 and missed out on the lows of December 2016 as a result.

    It doesn't faze me though. I use the same rationalisations (dollar cost average, can't time the peak and lows) to stack more. Luckily, I am but a regular Joe Blow who doesn't have a fortune to go "all in" and have to rely on my monthly paycheck for my purchases, so I don't "lose it all" on the peaks as I spread my purchases when my paycheck comes.

    The point is I am strong in my convictions of the general fall in the world reserve currency which is the US dollar. This is why the dips don't worry me too much.

    But I am also cognisant of the dangers in my theory.

    The gold and silver bugs of 2011 didn't see the resolution of Bernanke to print. This is what killed them.

    In my case, I can see that the US will be able to sustain the reserve status of the US dollar (and the world preferring it over gold or maybe even Yuan) because they have made new innovations in fracking and horizontal drilling.

    I recognise that Saudi and the other big-reserve oil countries like Iran my start selling oil for gold (or already do in a little way) instead of US dollars.

    But the USA, being the 10th largest oil reserve in the world, is capable of providing the market with $50 dollar a barrel and can keep a lid on Saudi's and Iran's capacity to sell their oil for gold. With fracking, the oil-buying nations of the world choice of buying US treasuries over gold over US will be justifiable as the US can provide some of the oil demand.

    This is what I fear the most. That the US can provide enough oil and maintain the US dollar reserve status that it will deflate any attempts, by the China/Russia/Iran axis, to convert oil for gold.

    This is also the reason Trump is making overtures to Putin. He's trying to convince Putin to abandon the oil-for-Yuan convertible to gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Trump want Putin to keep buying US Treasuries. It's also why Hillary and Obama were vilifying him on the expectation of a Hillary victory. They were going to invade Russia to keep the petrodollar system if Hillary would have won. Trump is going the friendly course of lifting sanction for staying with the petrodollar system.

    If overtures don't work, the US has a strong military capable of destabilising China and Saudi (but not Russia) to stop the oil-gold axis via the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

    The US has a lot of experience destabilising economies who want out of the petrodollar system like Libya and Iraq. China, even with their power, is peanuts to the country that perfected economic hitman-ism.

    But still, I am strong in my convictions. The breakup of the EU, a major world currency, is one justification I have for stacking gold in the future. The debt-to-GDP of Japan is another. The Chinese record debt is another. The coming implosion of Australian banks who have devoted a majority of their loan book to the real estate ponzi is another.

    My feelings and convictions on the debasement of fiat is so strong that I continue to stack.

    I can understand how 2011 "losers" have lost the passion for gold and silver and I know that I may join their ranks if the risks that I have listed come to fruition.

    Still, this is a strong "gut feel" investment for me and I would hate myself more if I did not invest and gold shoots up to AUD$10,000 than if I continue stacking and gold falls to AUD$800/ounce.

    This is why I will continue stacking at the end of the day.

    I'm in it for the long haul. I will take the hit of the next 5 years if it need be and 2011 stackers should too.
     
  8. Killface

    Killface Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ahahahahahah!! There are a lot of deluded individuals on here who think they know better than everyone else. Doesn't stop them from criticising anyone who disagrees with them as "elitist", or 'sheeple', or 'timid', 'brainwashed', 'blind', or whatever flatters their egos or inferiority complexes.

    You've got so-called 'skeptical' know-nothings who believe the most improbable and poorly-evidenced drivel (if it suits their particular prejudices or survivalist fantasies) and semi-literate armchair statesmen pontificating about any number of subjects they'd do well to leave to the grown-ups.

    So it shouldn't come as any surprise that you'll also get a cross-section of members who don't know the difference between wish-fulfilling fantasy and fact when it comes to PMs, and shout the loudest when questioned.

    But pride comes before a fall, and greed is, depressingly, ubiquitous.

    Fear and greed, fear and greed...

    Business as usual.
     
  9. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    I am sorry....I am actually greed and fear...not fear and greed.
    I buy because I am a greedy sod that wants to make money from doing nothing...
    then I poop my pants as I once again have bought at the high and prices drop meaning I have actually lost money....
    Repeat.
     
  10. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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  11. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    <sideways>
     
  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    $50 an ounce is a sure bet for sometime in the distant future, few will sell out and make a killing but most will see the watch value drop back to the teens or even single digit day dreaming about $100 an ounce.
     
  13. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    You have nailed it.
    It seems to be that many stackers may in fact just be collectors and seriously need to consider why they are into pm's.
    If the idea REALLY is to have as much metal as possible for insurance or some other dream then they/we need to learn from history and sell when things get hot and rebuy MORE when it all comes back to reality.
     
  14. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Though I do think that views expressed needs to be looked at closely.

    For example a question from an investor orientated member asking an investment question being answered by a hobbyist with collectivity bent or a stacker no matter what have some eye opening differences.
     
  15. SilverGull

    SilverGull Member

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    As a relative noob (less than 1 year stacking), this has been one of the most informative/sobering posts I've come across in a long time. Plenty of food for thought - thanks to the various contributors! 'Those who don't learn from history....'
     
  16. placeholderz

    placeholderz New Member

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    Careful with the "failed" stories though. I see some stackers saying they resorted to "day trading" and stopped accumulating. Might as well just trade stocks or whatever man.

    I can see that is was painful being slammed by the banks' silver manipulation. The silver manipulation is real. There's plenty of news about it and settlements and prosecutions. The gold manipulation is yet to unravel.

    But I don't see why stackers who have been burned view it as a failure and get disappointed with PM's? The news of the manipulation should be a stark reminder for them to keep stacking. They're doing all they can to hammer down the price. That means they're getting desperate or there's too much fiat sloshing in the system. Think about it. How can they slam silver year after year? And let's not even talk about gold manipulation. They sold 3 years worth of contracts in one day during the Trump victory. Three years worth of gold production in one hour. That should tell you there' too much fiat in the system.

    PM bugs should know more than most about the manipulation and the threat of fiat getting snuffed soon. More so than the general population. So you've been burned once by the great dive of 2011. Why not just dollar cost average your paper "losses"? Keep stacking and don't get discouraged.

    The great dive of 2011 will be but a blip. The error of those discouraged is looking for a big uptick in 3-5 years, when they should be looking more at 5-10.

    Keep stacking my friends and don't let the great dive of 2011 discourage you. It will all be just a blip in the chart when the BIG ONE arrives.
     
  17. Noxx

    Noxx Member

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    Because gold and silver has been in a huge bubble for 10 years and they know they can short it until it finds it's normal much lower level again. So they are going to play with it all the way down. With the high prices also brought massive new silver and gold mine ventures and investments, which meant a flood of new gold and silver which would naturally lower demand. Exactly like oil did after hitting a huge peak, only oil bottomed much faster.

    Anyway yeah stackers get to much in a frenzy. They get foaming at the mouth and all rational thinking seems to go out the window. The first rule in investing is to keep a cool head and keep emotions out of it. Or you're going to make mistakes and lose money. These companies and big banks have complex algorithms that are made to create trading and prices that will cause fear when they want it to and unfounded confidence when they want it to. All to take your money. They know how to work the dips and peaks perfectly. Years ago I once read about how some of their trading software was created by over 100 guys with PHD's. Not just scientific and math PHD's but psychological PHD's. They know exactly how to work human nature against yourself and for their gain. And it works over and over and over. People constantly get taken by it. That's why you see all these people posting charts and things they think they figured out, well what they are figuring out is just some of the mechanics behind that complex software. Usually they only figure a day or so ahead and after something happened, which isn't enough time and overall meaningless if you don't know the ultimate goal of the programming. See they can plug in information and say they think or know silver should really be at $9 an ounce. They plug in the goal and will work that for years. Getting people on the ups and downs along the way. Like right now I feel they are slowly working the entire drop and making money all the way down for the most profit from a huge peak we had in 2011. They can't let it drop to fast, so they allow it to bounce up and down. Giving confidence when they want you to buy, and breaking that confidence when they want you do sell. It's a formula that works.

    I think to be fair though all of us bears (or realists) could just as well be on the other side of things. If silver had gone to $100 (shoot it could go to $500 for all we know) someone could have posted all this crazy stuff about the exact opposite and we'd all sounded nuts instead of them. And it may be years but some day it is coming when silver will just go nuts and never come back down again and we'll kick ourselves for not buying more even when it seemed really high. I try to be rational and prudent and keep a level head but there are times I've missed out and was wrong because of it and the price of something went so high I never did get in. I guess what I'm saying is the best thing we can actually do is try to listen to everyone's viewpoint and take in as much knowledge as possible, keep an eye on changes, be ready to change when the time comes, don't be set in one way or the other unless you feel you have a solid well researched foundation for that belief. Be willing to change when it's time to change. But then again when the big boys decide on something, what they want is what happens and it won't matter one bit how we feel.
     
  18. placeholderz

    placeholderz New Member

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    Nah mate. It's not that complicated. Not fancy schmancy with computers and programs and algorithms. It's just a bunch of blokes in a bunch of banks (flush with QE money) calling each other on the phone to collude on both sides of the trade via good ole bid spoofing.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ds-alleged-to-show-banks-rigged-silver-prices
     
  19. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Gold is 16/18, 89%, from its high in aud.
    Few have lost much.

    Dont lump gold with
    silver,23/48.
    50%.
    And some smart buggers are ahead in quick buy and sell.
    Stack gold.
    Gamble silver.
     
  20. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Another interesting fact people forget is that someone has to lose money for others to gain money.

    Ie if someone bought at $50 an ounce, means someone SOLD at $50 ounce
     

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