Saracen(SAR)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by Silverthorn, Dec 9, 2011.

  1. J-Money

    J-Money New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2012
    Messages:
    54
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    +1
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    No, for the same reason as you - didn't want to bet against the tapering. Should have read comments from Jim Rickards, he predicted no taper.
    I did pick up some more Doray (DRM) on Tue and Wed at avg .60 taper or no taper- it'd pulled back enough towards the gap was my 'reasoning'
    Came quite close to buying a starter in Regis Resources (RRL) on Tue during that strange reaction to what seemed good annual results, but applied discipline. Have to be cautious with gold stocks.
    CAS has a capital raise ahead of it I thought
    Maybe consider Magellan Fin Grp against MFF if there's a crash? (see chart) - also pays a franked div

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mff_mgf.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Going goood.
    Looks like these guys have been conservative in their guidance - getting grade results that 'overcall'
    their guidance. Lets not forget that hedge book value.


    8 October 2013
    ASX & MEDIA RELEASE

    RECORD PRODUCTION FOR FOURTH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER

    The Directors of Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) ("Saracen" or "Company"), are
    pleased to provide an update on the production results for the September 2013 quarter ahead of
    the full quarterly report which will be released next week.

    September Quarter Production Milestones

    41,241 ounces produced in the September quarter 2013 (eclipsing previous record of
    36,430 ounces set in the June quarter 2013 by 13%).

    Record gold sales for the quarter of 43,096 ounces for revenue of approx A$66m at an
    average gold price received of A$1,531/oz (average of spot and hedge prices).

    Milled headgrade of 2.27g/t for the quarter, eclipsing previous record of 2.09g/t set in the
    June quarter 2013.

    Record mine production for the quarter from Red October of 68,230 tonnes @ 6.9g/t for
    15,106 ounces.

    The 41,241 ounces is the highest quarterly gold production recorded at the Carosue Dam Operations
    since operations commenced in 2010 and is approximately 4,000 ounces more than internal budget
    forecasts for the September quarter. The rolling 12-month gold production from the Carosue Dam
    Operations is 146,962 ounces.

    The extra 4,000 ounces produced above budget is a combination of a 195% overcall in the headgrade
    at the Karari open pit (3.35g/t actual versus 1.72g/t budget) and a 176% overcall in the headgrade at
    Red October (6.9g/t actual versus 3.9g/t budget), with the majority of ounces at Red October for the
    quarter coming from development ore rather than stoping ore hence the budget grade of 3.9g/t. The
    significant overcall in grade, in particular at Red October, is due to the conservative topcuts that have
    been applied to the ore reserves. These topcuts tend to undercall the very high grade intercepts of
    greater than 50g/t.

    The Whirling Dervish open pit continues to advance ahead of schedule with 106,000 tonnes of ore
    mined during the quarter at a 5% higher grade than planned (0.93g/t actual versus 0.89g/t budget).

    The most pleasing aspect of the quarter was the continued reduction in cash expenditure and
    significant cash build on the back of record gold sales resulting from the record gold production and
    gold hedging program that Saracen has in place, with 159,050 ounces at A$1,687/oz remaining until
    July 2016.

    Saracen is now in a net cash position compared with last quarter when the company was
    in a net debt position of A$8.7m. More information on cashflows and cash costs will be provided with
    the full quarterly report.
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Seems an interesting move today. Volume not what you'd call high but definite blip of interest. The candle closed at its high and is peeking above the 2 year downtrend. Also candle arguably above the recent 4 mth downtrend on open/close values. The price also closed above the level of support that became resistance of 20c. Also the momentum indicators shown are above their downtrends now and RSI has crossed above its neutral line.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Took my eye off this, but it has by now developed a pretty spritely monthly chart. Four bagger from the mid 2013 Low. Showing a bit of hesitation lately, and the 50c level it's retracted from is an old resistance support level. If a real pullback happens it might be worth considering - with its valuable hedging asset.

    Some chart points to note:
    The very strong positive monthly volume bars cropping up in 2013-14 on impulse moves higher
    The monthly RSI crossing its neutral level.
    The MACD crossing its signal line

    SAR Monthly
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Dusty

    Dusty Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2011
    Messages:
    878
    Likes Received:
    29
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Australia
    Presently there running a skeleton crew in production and approximately six years on mine life left.
     
  7. NlightN

    NlightN Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 15, 2013
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Picked some up at 0.26 today , dont ask me why.. just wanted to catch a falling knife :))
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    http://www.saracen.com.au/files/7414/1750/1600/The_Ore_Zone_-_Evans__Partners_Dec_2014.pdf

    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUUl4e3KKhU[/youtube]
    Published on Dec 4, 2014
    Senior Research Analyst at Evans and Partners, Cathy Moises.

    The volatility in the gold price is first on the agenda today with Cathy running through how gold mining companies are handling this volatility, particularly Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd (SAR). Cathy also discusses the other factors contributing to her views on SAR, including the management team, operating cost reduction and forecasted production levels, before running through the stock valuation.
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Back even NlightN. Chart looking a chance of reversal? Still early.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_sar_wkly_dec_23.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niPavhN7QYU[/youtube]
    Published on Jan 27, 2015
    "On the Tuesday edition of the Morning Mail, David is joined by Senior Research Analyst at Evans and Partners, Cathy Moises.

    Cathy firstly provides an overview of the gold price and a stock preference for the industry, Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd. (SAR). Analysis on the recently released quarterly results for SAR is provided by Cathy who runs through notable business activity including capital development at their second operation site, Thunderbox, before noting exploration and underground potential for a number of the company's sites"
     
  11. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,653
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Melbourne
    technically it doesn't look strong to me at the moment
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Gap and break above the significant looking 50c zone today. Cautionary note - it's only a daily break so far, volume unexceptional, and the index XGD went well today. Saracen looking good though - I'd like to be holding it.
     
  13. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    The mining side of things is going well also. :)
     
  14. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2012
    Messages:
    4,656
    Likes Received:
    72
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    NSW
    Yeah I like SAR as well. Picked up a taste at $0.51 when it poked its nose through a week or two ago. I'd like to see the $0.50 level become supportive now, but I'm not convinced.
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    60.5c now
    Monthly bar is poking above the volatility band. First time that's convincingly happened since 2010. Usually means more imo.
    Yet another higher high on the monthly chart.
    Sixbagger since the july 2013 low. The july 2013 low @ 10c had the highest monthly volume in the history of the stock. Hows that for a signal?
    Very strong looking trend
     
  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Decade monthly charts shows monthly trend (higher lows, higher highs) established after the 10c low in mid 2013.
    U can see the surges of positive volume in the 2 year period, the break above 50c, and breakout candle from volatility band.
    None of this precludes a pullback to 50c or even 40c area fraid to say, but the bigger picture looks good for sentiment. Could just keep on going though, don't know.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Outstanding. Nice move on good news.
     
  18. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    saracen has been consolidating. wonder if it will do the same as ramelius. took a punt and added to my position. Its solidly in the green.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    The only one of five select goldies that has an outperform rating in this article is Saracen Resources (SAR)
    Wow, check out the forecast P/E and P/E relative to earnings growth (PEG) that is claimed for all on the list. But can it be believed. Forecast earnings for gold miners? 12 years of having my head in a toilet after investing in gold companies - a faecal bull.

    5 GOLD MINERS FOR AN UNCERTAIN MARKET - By Bob Kohut | 18.01.2016
    http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/57705-5-gold-miners-for-an-uncertain-market.html
     
  20. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Finally managed to break higher. Hopefully the gold price doesn't get thumped tonight with the job report numbers.

    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page