^ Good points. How long does softness in the market generally last? What will cause a firmness in the market (other than a strong and sustained metals spot price increase)....a number of producer going belly up? This market is new to me (only been in it since late 2012) and I still consider myself a novice with much to learn. p.s. I think we can agree that "this market" refers to modern collector coins generally of the precious metals constitution - not blobs and not old (generally circulated) numismatic coins, yes? Or, if you have a good way to describe or define whatever this market is, how would you? .
When the precious metals market is slow, it's stuff like this that gets hit hard and fast- anything that you can define as a fad (modern collector coins if you will). Bullion follows spot, and as such is predictable. proper numismatics follow the numismatic market, again, prices are predictable if you're in that game. We're at the point now where the market has returned to what it was pre 2011. Lack of action has shaken out a lot of the speculators, both producers and consumers - lack of demand = death to premiums. This isn't a market that is going to spring back to life in an instant, it's one that has been unrealistically pumped and is now getting a dose of reality.
If you are correct Aureus, and modern precious metals coins have taken a hit as a result of a slow PM market, then does it follow that if PM prices rise (more than just a momentary blip on the charts) that these same items can (or likely will) make a rebound? When I entered the game in late 2012 (year of the Dragon), Perth Mint Lunar 2 Dragons were selling for significant premiums. Granted, the Chinese Dragon is a popular Lunar animal, but if my memory serves me well, all PM Lunar 2's that I watched were generally fetching relatively high premiums (at least in the U.S.) and for small quantity orders of less than 20 1 oz coins. Tubes and large orders always get discounted vs smaller orders. .
It's possible, but to be frank I don't think the quality is good enough to see these get a second wind now. You need to maintain interest and garner momentum with early releases in a series, failure to do that and it doesn't take a betting man to plot the future. It is honestly very difficult to explain how vastly different the market in general has been post 2010. We've always had the government mint tat, but all this private mint stuff that's been spoiling everyone is a new phenomenon. It exists largely to cater to the explosion in speculators, but now that prices have retreated to sane levels those speculators are not there. Will we get them back? unlikely, the "to the moon" theory is debunked at this point. From a purely technical point of view, 2011 was an artificial blip in an otherwise boring and predictable market. If the urge to collect modern coins is there, safe money is on proven semi numismatics (kooks, lunars, pandas). Buying high premium, private mint releases should be avoided like the plague in my opinion.
Thanks for sharing your views on this subject, Aureus. "Safe" money is very subjective and temporary and while today Kooks, Lunars, Koalas, and Pandas are still popular among collectors and stackers, changing trends can make popular coins not such a safe bet. This is especially true with the growing consensus that these higher premium "safe" money coins are being eschewed by more and more collectors and stackers due to the worsening milk spot problems. Of course most of the modern collector coins that I'm aware of are produced by a major mint. Now, what one considers a "major mint" can certainly vary. I don't know about any other mint, but certainly the U.S. Mint is a purely governmental agency. All employees receive a government check, not a private check. The U.S. Mint produces no coins that aren't first authorized by the Legislative body, Congress. The U.S. Mint sells no private rounds or bars. I don't think the same can be said for many or most other "government" mints....but maybe I'm wrong. The Perth Mint, for example, is what I'd consider a semi-private mint since it produces rounds and bars if I'm not mistaken (I never had any interest in those blobs myself but I occasionally see talk about these products). Major mints in my view can include private mints. Some private mints produce some of the most collectible products out there, though they are generally considered technically "rounds". The first that pops into my mind is the Elemetal Mint with their 2 oz silver ultra high relief rounds....most notably the Privateer series. Now maybe, Elemetal Mint 2 oz rounds are only popular in the U.S., but regardless, the premiums on most of these rounds have held well or have increased over the period of time that many modern coins have lost some premium in the after market. Of course that's not to say that all similar products from all private mints will have the same success. But my point is that "safe" money is a very subjective and temporary term. .
I am seller in part time and collector. I like mmsing & Aureus comments and views. Please let it going
in the literal sense it is subjective, agreed. If you consider in the coin market that history defines what is safe money, then 20-25 years of consistent gains is as safe as it gets. There are only 3 semi numismatic series running over decades, an incredible accomplishment to have decades of demand. If I told you to invest in something that has not lost money in the last 25 years would you do it? yup, would you call it safe money? yup. On the subject of private mints... I should have just said small mints, and by that I mean companies producing a product privately without outsourcing to the big boys ala elemental. These are closing at an alarming rate anyway, you'll find most are selling through distributors or the distributors have bought the rights to the more successful tat and produce it themselves. When the going gets tuff, if you don't have history on your side investors will (and should) turn a blind eye, you need investor interest to make money longterm as a coin producer because the sheep jump ship when it's quiet. I don't know how fair it is for me to share my views on a thread dedicated to a coin series, so i'll leave it at this but happy to continue elsewhere on the forum.
I may as well continue I have the same COA # for the first two, might as well complete the series with the same COA #, and quite frankly, thankful this 3rd looks the nicest of the three, IMHO. I think there will be one more to complete the series? Or is this it? Anyone know? db23?
If I'm not wrong it was planned there will be 12 coins in total. It's quite quiet after Valkyrie was released.
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