Here's a blast from the past.................what an excitable bunch we had back then. Silver was the focus...(actually making money was but we kid ourselves it is the silver ) Oh for those days to come back so we can get back to doing what we do best....talk shit about silver. It seems that we have drifted into monotonous dialogue and fault finding.
Silver is coming back and very soon us stackers will have our day so to speak. I predict a very lively forum soon for a long time!
We traded gold profitably for 4 years by going short when commercials were heavily short on the CFTC COT, and long when they had moved significantly towards neutral, which is as "long" as they get. Silver and gold moved together very closely back then, more so than now. Can't trade silver here in Thailand. There used to be silver futures traded on the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) but they were discontinued 2-3 years ago for lack of interest. Now, silver is setting new record commercial short positions each week, but we (wife and I) don't dare to short anymore. Everything except the CFTC COT points to higher prices. I believe we are close to a significant price move as the current growth of the big 4 concentrated sort in silver is unsustainable, just not sure if the move will be up or down. Yes, I know that doesn't help much, sorry. However, we are in cash as of the middle of the week, betting that the banksters are not finished yet. When you see significant commercial buying into rising prices, that will be the time to put it all on the line long, as it will show that one or more of the big shorts is covering. If it is one of the two biggest ones, JPM or Scotia Bank, it will also probably be accompanied by dropping OI initially (do not confuse this with normal contract/options expiration drops in OI). The dropping OI might be very short lived, however, only a day or two, not sure. The problem is that the CFTC report shows data for 5 trading days ending each Tuesday afternoon, and then is not available until Friday. So the banksters have 8 business days to play before the world can see what they have been doing. If it breaks to the upside, I would expect a BIG move that week, followed by even bigger ones after everybody else jumps in. Given geopolitical issues as they are, we will go all in again if there is a smack down soon.