After a couple of weeks or so to cool down today is looking like its gonna be breakout silver - part 2 (the 2nd leg up) Hope we get another $1 move up tonight and gold and nickel will continue to follow her up.. nothing quite like silver on a roll. Hands up if you LOVE TO own the number 1 best performing asset of 2016!
i know it's kinda stupid, but i hope it goes back down and stays there for another year or so back to where 10 oz bars cost $220. i was enjoying that quite a bit.
Well dealers have to replenish their stocks that they sold during the uptrend. So they let their futures positions expire and/or neutralize them with opposite orders. So that price component vanishes. Then some oh its gonna go to zero. And on the highdays of the concerns / hesitation / doubt / greed for lower, they'll hammer their stock replenishment and hedge replacement buttons. And the price will propell up again till da moon. And then everything will be again sunny rosy with lotsa bees and flowers, and we are expected to buy their stock.
The 2016 uptrend was $7 ($14 to $21) over a period of 7 months. The last months of 2007 and the first months of 2008 a very similar uptrend occurred, even same prices. The downtrend (to the september 2008 crisis) lasted 9 months. We're now august, +9 months is april 2017. Every month 1 dollar down.
Hey P do you act on your insights or do you just commentate? I just curious you seem to have a lot of information handy, but why collate it all if it is for nought?
There's no good reason to believe that just because it happened in the past in that way, that it will happen the same way now. The world has changed since 2007. .
Why not? This is an eternal one: stocks get sold. This isn't about cheese that gets green and gets flagged as waste. This is about a precious metal. I said: "The downtrend (to the september 2008 crisis) lasted 9 months. We're now august, +9 months is april 2017. Every month 1 dollar down." August. September. October. November. December. 5 months. 5 dollars. We started with $20.xx It's now $15.xx
Pirocco, inductive reasoning isn't the same as deductive reasoning. Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen in the future and even if it does, the conditions that caused the two events/outcomes could be very different. Further, the outcome might not have been a result of the event it followed....post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy. .
Which conditions do you see different? QE was a false suggestion of spending and consequential price inflation. In the end, nearly ALL speculation occurs because bank deposited fiat is a designed-for loss and people strive to maintain purchasing power of their savings. And thus, any speculation-caused trend ASIDE the general prices / inflation trend, is bound to be reverted, in mathematical terms. Since the silver price trend part caused by speculation (and the consequential hedging) dominated by far the industrial part, this is nearly 100% applicable. History, tends to repeat itself.
The sun will rise tomorrow morning. Absolutely not all of the conditions prevailing will be exactly the same, but a sufficient number of the most important ones will be, so much so that I am willing to stake my entire fortune on the belief that it will. This idea that you can understand a sufficient number of the causative, or at least, correlating factors sufficiently well so as to predict an outcome is called modelling. It is used for many purposes and it can be anywhere from really good to really dodgy ..............
Why inserting those "all" and "exactly"? I'm not a nationalsocialist striving a 100% accuracy. Seriously. I state that conditions are mostly the same. Just check some supermarkets, stores, and other price tag places 'round. And compare them with those 8 years ago. The price tags that did increase, are mostly those of the most State controlled products, alike drinking water and electricity. As The Crow said. To stress again: all my price judgements are in relative terms. Silvers relative to those of the products it is used as monetary inbetween step to. It's dead easy for government to for ex double the general price level. Just produce the cheapskate fiat and hand it out for free all over the place. But they are smarter than that. Much smarter. QE was an example. See, they ALSO learnt from history.
Sorry, but the sun ISN'T a valuation....your analogy is the worst fail I've seen in a very, very long time. Merry Christmas! .
Mostly the same conditions doesn't cut it because at the same time there are conditions that are significantly different. As just 1 of many examples, look at Bitcoins' quickly growing popularity in the East as the alternative investment supplanting gold according to some analysts: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032603-will-bitcoin-crash-gold And even if X happened in 2008 because of Z, it doesn't mean that if X happens in 2017 it will have to also be because of Z....it could happen as a result of Y instead. Some things are changing fairly rapidly in the world these days. .
It does "cut" it. There is a real world out there. With products and their supply and demand. Money, and everything what you may label "investment", is just an inbetween step towards them. If the target products price doesn't change, then the inbetween step has no other reason than error to change too. Same applies to bitcoin. The error level drops. That's what lessons teach. And what the price trend shows. A month = a dollar down. Until stability, when suckers become hard to find and money for nothing thus too. Things that change fast tend to revert even faster. Because suckers need to be convinced, which takes time, and the opposite act surprising them. And that valuation wasn't about the sun, but about the sunrise. Depending on the earth axis rotation and position around the sun. Parameters that are, from out perspective of time and place, quite stable. So there is some degree of certainty based on them. It's not an analogy failing, it's your cutting of words and sentences.
oh, and Bitcoin can **** ** ***. I don't want to lose property control / trading ability with electricity and internet and whatever dependencies.
The less you can give people for their money, the more you can make. Bitcoin is a new low in value for money.