An important note to add is that it's not only the price that matters, but also the duration it may last. So for ex, in the case that Ishares Silver Trust dumps that amount equaling a US Mint annual ASE sales, and brings $20, that $20 will last the period that others require to buy it all up, after which price will go back to the one before the IShares dump (assuming the rest static). Take for ex the 2011 story. The Comex side dumped 15000 positions / 75 Moz silver during the $32>$50 period that Ishares bought 260 Moz. Without this Comex dump, and with IShares having the patience to wait till that price to grab profit (haha) the spot price could have reached $60. OR that same $50 could have lasted longer (because more ounces sellable at this price due to the lower existing sales). So if you see on fora alot people with necks like giraffes watching for price increases, it means that you will have alot selling competition, which in turn means that the time you will have available to sell at the targeted price, will be shorter : There, technical analysis without figures and wedges and dma's and triangles.
The TA guys are now probably running in circles in their search for triangles wedges squares doubletopcamels and highheels, to find their next dump price haha. If you observe the finviz trader class position trends, it looks like that the Commercial Hedgers (or the traders that act throughout swap dealers) are the smartest, then the Large Traders as 2nd smartest, then the Small Traders as 3rd smartest (I avoided here the usage of the word dumb). Since during the last price drop, the Small Traders sat on the dump side, and the Large Traders on the buy side, the price outlook at the moment is up. Just visit that TA topic here, they talk about get out prices, not get in prices, says enough
Pirocco, you seem very well researched... May I ask your personal opinion on how high you think silver will go this decade?
Ok. You have provoked a response. The small traders I know were on the dump side of the last price drop (me included) and made good money shorting the drop - so I don't see your point. BS. You seem confused. A trader has both a get in and get out price - that is what constitutes a trade. They are both mentioned in the T/A thread. You, however, love to publicise your get in price targets - and the most recent one was $30. :lol: 4th smartest?
I'm glad to have catched your eyes. Concerns? haha? Second COT report: 16/04/2013 22498 $23.41 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15312 Short 47508 <- -32196 net short = changed +2621 positions towards short/away from long. Swap Dealer Long 27654 Short 17956 <- +9698 net long = changed +1956 positions towards short/away from long. Large Traders Long 27416 Short 17967 <- +9449 net long = changed +10058 positions towards long/away from short. Other Reportables Long 12285 Short 4136 <- +8149 net long = changed 375 positions towards short/away from long. Small Traders Long 22677 Short 17777 <- +4900 net long = changed 5109 positions towards short/away from long. Third COT report (oldest): 09/04/2013 17924 $27.3-$28.1-$27.89 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17458 Short 47033 <- -29575 net short Swap Dealer Long 28085 Short 16434 <- +11654 net long Large Traders Long 25463 Short 26072 <- -609 net short Other Reportables Long 13029 Short 4505 <- +8524 net long Small Traders Long 25754 Short 15745 <- +10009 net long 25754-22677=3077 long positions dumped. 17777-15745=2032 short positions taken. Small Trader Class as a whole, thus moved, as said, 5109 positions towards the short side. This COT data was at $23.41. And then, again a week later, thus a week after the price drop: 23/04/2013 17164 $22.8 $23.29 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17448 Short 47344 <- -29896 net short = changed +2300 positions towards long/away from short. Swap Dealer Long 30220 Short 17488 <- +12732 net long = changed +3034 positions towards long/away from short. Large Traders Long 26811 Short 19163 <- +7648 net long = changed -1801 positions towards short/away from long. Other Reportables Long 12006 Short 4653 <- +7353 net long = changed 796 positions towards short/away from long. Small Traders Long 20782 Short 18619 <- +2152 net long = changed 2748 positions towards short/away from long. What do we see? With abit lower spot price, they AGAIN increased their position towards the short. But a short position delivers a gain by a further price drop. So increasing amount short positions at a bottom price, doesn't appear smart to me. And apparently, the Large Trader Class agreed with me. So if you and 'those you know' (haha) benefitted from the price drop, you certainly did not do what the Small Trader Class as a whole did haha.
Not in the slightest. :| You? Big assumption to make that we are at a bottom price? Oh goodie, then maybe I am part of the 1st smartest? But I am also confused. I thought the small traders dumped big - that is what I did. Want to have a crack at my previous question: $30 buy in..... 4th smartest?
It was the bottom price so far. That Small Trader Class held, while the price dropped, 5000 long positions. To then dump them at the lowest price so far. So far, in over 2 years, they haven't been a more worse moment to dump long positions/take short positions. That's smart?
That will depend on General Inflation and Captain Tax. That will answer the question where silvers bottom/average price will go, and how stable the price trend (not the price) will be. In the end, those that stack silver as a method of saving, want to have a stable / predictable price trend. To have alot time to sell silver at a better price than they bought. Those short peak and bottom prices only serve the bogus traders, the money for nothing club, whose nerves you hit by declaring me as 'well researched', lol. Since General Inflation and Captain Tax can only steal what there is available, it will depend on what happens in the economy. The ability of the producing part of the population, to overcome/block the theft by the parasiting part. I try to overcome it with silver, by attempting to buy at bottom prices, and when time will be there that I need to sell some, to sell at peak prices. My 'research' is aimed at improving that, since I started buying early 2011, I never bought when spot was higher than $32, and I gradually decreased my target price, considering todays price, I could have done better, and my 'research' is to continue improving that. The most important lessons I learnt is that there is time and that you should have patience, and that you shouldn't buy all you can even if it appears as a bargain. My biggest error was to swap most of my bank account in a couple weeks, in february 2011. That left me little room to average down. On the other hand, I could have done much worser, by buying when spot was $35 $40 and even $50. How many bought when spot was $35? It has been over a year there. It was the average of 2011. If I hadnt swapped most of my bank account in almost one time, it's possible that I would have bought at $35 too, even worsening my average. Also, todays price is no price to judge (yet). The first factor of importance is the price. But the duration that the price lasts, is equally important, and can even be more important. Who cares about a 50% price drop if it lasts only a single day? As long as you didn't sell that day, you didn't materialize losses. Of course, the money for nothing club wants us to sell that day, haha.
Smart, dumb, wet, dry, the data shows what was done by which trader class. Your 'intervention' in the talk about it, doesn't change data and doesn't change conclusions. So how useful was it then? I bet that rhino there behind you in the bushes, yawned.
I only contributed after a provocative invite - and you seemed pleased with yourself: I suppose the only use it served was to defend the TA trader by comparing their actions with your own at $30 without the need for copious amounts of data mining. I had no intention of changing your data or conclusion. Infact, I concur - prices decline when sellers outweigh buyers, it really is that simple. However, I am surprised it hasn't drawn more response from other members.
"provocative invite"? "You seem pleased with yourself"? My forum experience is that when people prefer to talk about the discussion instead of the subject of it, that they don't like the subject. But I can understand that, because what am I doing when observing the COT reports data? I'm looking at what the most buy-and-dump fashioned side of the silver market is doing, and the nature of their trading, outspeeding others in selling/buying on a month/week/day/hour and even minute resolution, it's is very well possible that they don't like too much atttention being drawn to data that shows who did what and when. And maybe this explains why you experienced my post as a 'provocative invite '. And why do you care about 'response' from other members? Because that's a funny one. There is also little to respond on, in the end, my post is just an analysis of data. Some calculations, and some conclusions about which Trader Class did what and when/which price. Then you came in, saying "The small traders I know were on the dump side of the last price drop (me included) and made good money shorting the drop - so I don't see your point.". That 'point' of me was that the Small Trader Class moved towards the short side (by dumping existing longs they had, acquiring new shorts), around the lowest price moment. I didn't say that every such Small Trader did that, I talked about the Class as a whole. Which is very obvious because the COT report doesnt contain data of individual persons/entities. It would be a book if it did haha. Despite this obvious clear absence of such detail, your post was like that detail was there, and I used it. Small Trader Johnny B. WRCMad took 1 long on 1 april 2054 and dumped it 5 hours later, haha. So why did you take then such ridiculous personal-defensive attitude? I'm A Small Trader And Some I Know Too! We Made Some Good Money There! I talked about the Trader Class as a whole, and you felt addressed as single trader / club 'Those You Know', haha. My conclusions based on the COT data changes were given. The Small Trader Class were net big DUMPING longs around the price bottom we saw mid april. The Big Trader Class were net big TAKING longs there. Both these classes are categorized as under the Demand side of the futures market. The Commercial Hedging Producer/Merchant/Processor and the Swap Dealers Classes on the Supply side (JP Morgan present in both these Supply classes), didn't show big position changes. And why? Alike I explained along a deal where I sell silver to some other stacker, instead of back to a dealer, and that other stacker thus buys silver from me, instead of from a dealer. In other words: from the perspective of the dealer / the supply chain, our silver trade doesnt exist, it's a net zero. Me and the other stacker didnt cause a bigger or smaller demand on the market as a whole. e undid eachothers effects by replacing the dealer. The same applied to this Comex Demand side inter-deal. And hence I stated that those that 'blame' this price drop on Comex > the Big Shorts > JP Morgan / etc, were fairy tales. The Comex side of the silver market even supported the price there, and it were the Large Traders (woohooe Big Bad! ) that caused that support, the Small Traders dumped instead, and thus undid a part (about half) of the Large Traders upwards price pressure. Do I see people on this forum 'blame' the price drop to the Small Traders? No. Instead, one Small Trader popped up, seeing this conclusion as a personal provocative invite. You, haha. Want to know why I bold-tagged this last sentence? Because you just bold-tagged JP Morgan. I bet you understand why.
Hi Pirocco Do you think that denominations of silver will be important when selling silver to make a profit? Ie can you give us an insight into what denominations you buy? Thanks G
I don't know, I'm not in silver for profit, more of preserving what I had / decreasing losses. And that's a whole other story / strategy than hunting profit. If the question had been about what sells best, thus 'most liquid', there are too much variables that depend on your local situation. Small denominations tend to cost more per ounce. Big denominations you have to buy/sell in one time (at least without having to use a saw / axe / whatever haha), which means that it limits your ability to sell only what you need to sell. It depends on tax situation. It also depends on how much you want to put in silver. I put alot in silver, and for every monsterbox I have 3 kilocoins. And some junk too, mostly 25 gram 0,900. But thats due to my local situation/region and personal preferences. Which can't be recommended someone in another situation/region and with other personal preferences. So check out what kinds of silver sell easy in your region, buy the denominations you can afford, chose the coins most like. There is a high chance you'll like them too. It's the freaky stuff that tends to be the niche market.
Again a post about the discussion instead of its subject. Your question if I'm lonely appears useless to me. Your quotes of my posts were too. Maybe that's just your red line here?
Hi Pirocco, Are you of the opinion that there are still some good investments which generate a yield out there.? Example a bond issued by a blue chip world operating Corp? Or is silver more secure than anything because of its physical properties, and possible capital appreciation... C
That's OK, your posts are not very useful to me either. However, you are posting on a public forum, so you surely must expect some feedback. If you don't expect discussion on your posts, then you are only here for the purpose of lecturing. If you are only here to lecture, you are in the wrong place - you will require a more unassuming and naive audience than you will likely find here..
